Archives: United States

Polling Company: Reid Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates: May 2016

Client: Newshub

Report: Newshub

Party Support

  • National 47.0% (+0.3%)
  • Labour 31.3% (-1.0%)
  • Green 11.1% (+0.9%)
  • NZ First 7.8% (+0.3%)
  • Maori 1.0% (-0.3%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.4% (-0.4%)
  • Mana 0.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 0.0% (-0.7%)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 38
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 10
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/122 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 14 = 52/122 – 10 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 10 + Maori 1 = 11/122

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 36.7% (-1.6%)
  • Andrew Little 8.9% (-1.5%)
  • Winston Peters 12.1% (+2.8%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 2.6% (-1.6%)

Housing

  • 20% think Government is doing enough to control the housing market
  • 76% do not
  • 61% think foreign buyers are driving up house prices

US Ships

  • 75% support a visit by a US Navy ship
  • 20% opposed

Herald DigiPoll December 2015

December 15, 2015

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 750

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates: 04 to 14 December 2015

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 51.3% (+0.5%)
  • Labour 31.1% (+0.1%)
  • Green 8.2% (-1.0%)
  • NZ First 5.7% (-1.2%)
  • Maori 2.1% (+1.9%)
  • United Future 0.3% (+0.3%)
  • ACT 0.8% (+0.6%)
  • Mana 0.0% (-0.2%)
  • Conservative 0.0% (-0.6%)

Projected Seats

  • National 62
  • Labour 37
  • Green 10
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 62 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 64/121 – three more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 10 = 47/121 – 14 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 2 = 9/121

On this poll National could govern alone.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 65.2% (+1.5%)
  • Andrew Little 16.2% (+2.9%)
  • Winston Peters 7.9% (-3.7%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 2.8% (-1.1%)

TPP

  • 27% support (+5%)
  • 26% oppose (-6%)
  • 46% no view (nc)

Iraq

  • Support deployment 63% (+4%)
  • Oppose deployment 30% (-4%)

Obesity

  • 53% say school tuck shops should ban unhealthy food
  • 44% disagree

US Ship Visits

  • 50% say a US visit would be positive
  • 29% don’t want a visit
  • 16% say a visit would be a triumph for NZ nuclear free policy

Stuff reports:

It would be much easier for Barack Obama to be re-elected in New Zealand than the United States.

An overwhelming majority of New Zealanders would vote for Barack Obama if they had the chance. Given a hypothetical vote, 66 per cent would favour Obama and a mere 7 per cent his Republican rival, Mitt Romney.

New Zealanders have always favoured Democrats in UMR polling but never by such a big margin.

We like Obama a lot more, too. He has a handsome 82 per cent favourable/11 per cent unfavourable rating from New Zealanders. Fewer have an opinion on Romney, but it is breaking negative at 14 per cent favourable/31 per cent unfavourable.

New Zealanders expect Obama to prevail as well. Seventy per cent expect an Obama victory and 10 per cent a Romney victory.

d

The NZ Herald reports:

A Herald-DigiPoll of 750 voters conducted shortly after the announcement of the Alam Halfa exercise suggests more people approve of the resumption of exercises, but not overwhelmingly.

Asked, “Do you approve or disapprove of the United States resuming military exercises in New Zealand,” 47.6 per cent approved, 44 per cent disapproved and 8.4 per cent didn’t know or wouldn’t say.

A surprising level of disapproval.

Defence Minister Jonathan Coleman said he was a little surprised and thought support for the exercises might be higher but respondents might have thought it involved ship visits.

I suspect so.

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