Archives: TNS

Three News TNS Poll November 2008

November 6, 2008

Polling Company: TNS

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: not known yet

Client: TV3

Report: 

Party Support

  • National 46.0% (+0.0%)
  • Labour 33.1% (-4.3%)
  • Green 9.0% (-0.2%)
  • NZ First 3.4% (-0.1%)
  • Maori 2.7% (+0.4%)
  • United Future 0.2% (nc)
  • ACT 2.8% (+1.1%)
  • Progressive 0.3% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 59
  • Labour 42
  • Green 12
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 4
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 59 + ACT 4 = 63/123 – majority possible
  • Labour 42 + Progressive 1 + Greens 12 + Maori 4  = 59/123 = majority not possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 62 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.

Preferred PM

  • Key 36.4% (+2.8%)
  • Clark 34.2% (+0.6%)
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TV3/TNS Poll mid October 2008

October 23, 2008

Polling Company: TNS

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: estimated to be 15 October to 20 October 2008

Client: TV3

Report: TV3

Party Support

  • National 45.1% (+0.1%)
  • Labour 37.4% (-1.8%)
  • Green 8.8% (+2.0%)
  • NZ First 3.5% (+0.8%)
  • Maori 2.3% (-0.2%)
  • United Future 0.2% (+0.1%)
  • ACT 1.7% (-0.1%)
  • Progressive 0.1% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 47
  • Green 11
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 6
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 2
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 125

This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 57 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 + Maori 6 = 66/125 – majority possible
  • National 57 + Maori 6 = 63/125 – majority possible
  • Labour 47 + Progressive 1 + Greens 11 + Maori 6  = 65/125 = majority possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 63 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.

Preferred PM

  • Key 33.6% (+2.6%)
  • Clark 33.6% (+2.0%)
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TV3/TNS Poll early October 2008

October 11, 2008

Polling Company: TNS

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: estimated to be 3 October to 8 October 2008

Client: TV3

Report: TV3

Party Support

  • National 45.0% (-4.0%)
  • Labour 39.0% (+3.0%)
  • Green 6.8% (+1.8%)
  • NZ First 2.7% (-0.3%)
  • Maori 2.5% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
  • ACT 1.8% (-0.2%)
  • Progressive 0.1% (+0.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 49
  • Green 9
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 6
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 2
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 125

This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 57 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 + Maori 6 = 66/125 – majority possible
  • National 57 + Maori 6 = 63/125 – majority possible
  • Labour 49 + Progressive 1 + Greens 9 + Maori 6  = 65/125 = majority possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 63 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.

Preferred PM

  • Key 31.0% (-3.0%)
  • Clark 31.6% (-0.4%)

Trust to Manage Economy

  • Labour/Cullen 42.7%
  • National/English 41.2%
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Maori Voters Poll

October 7, 2008

Polling Company: TNS

Poll Method: Random Phone of Maori voters on general and Maori rolls (exact mix unknown)

Poll Size: 420 total voters (4.9% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 18 September to 28 September 2008

Client: Maori TV

Report: Not online yet

Party Support

  • National 15.0%
  • Labour 52.0%
  • Green 5.0%
  • NZ First 5.0%
  • Maori 20.0%
  • United Future <1%
  • ACT <1%
  • Progressive
Preferred PM
  • Helen Clark 38%
  • John Key 10%
  • Winston Peters 10%
  • Pita Sharples 4%
  • Tariana Turia 3%
Performance
  • Clark performing well or very well – 70%
  • Key performing well or very well – 36%
Coalitions
  • 53% think National would choose Maori Party over ACT, Greens or NZ First
  • 69% thought Key would do a deal with NZ First if he had no other choices available
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National Party Coalition Options

September 29, 2008

TV3/TNS asked about coalition options for National:

  • 51% think John Key will do a coalition with NZ First if it is the only way he can become PM, 41% do not
  • 57% approve of ACT as a coalition partner for National, 30% do not
  • 47% approve of United Future as coalition partner for National, 36% do not
  • 47% approve of Maori Party as coalition partner for National, 42% do not
  • 39% approve of the Greens as coalition partner for National, 52% do not
  • 20% approve of NZ First as coalition partner for National, 72% do not
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TV3/TNS Poll September 2008

September 28, 2008

Polling Company: TNS

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: estimated to be 20 September to 25 September 2008

Client: TV3

Report: TV3

Party Support

  • National 49.0% (+1.0%)
  • Labour 36.0% (-1.0%)
  • Green 5.0% (-1.0%)
  • NZ First 3.0% (nc)
  • Maori 2.0% (nc)
  • United Future 0.0% (-1.0%)
  • ACT 2.0% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
Projected Seats
  • National 62
  • Labour 46
  • Green 6
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 6
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 3
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 125
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
  • National 62 + ACT 3 = 65/125 – majority possible
  • Labour 46 + Progressive 1 + Greens 6 + Maori 6 + United Future 1 = 60/125 = no majority possible
The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 63 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.
Preferred PM
  • Key 34.0% (nc)
  • Clark 32.0% (+1.0%)
Leader Ratings
  • Clark – 58% (-5%) performing well vs 27% (+5%) performing badly
  • Key – 55% (-1%) performing well vs 24% (+4%) performing badly
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TV3/TNS Poll August 2008

August 25, 2008

Polling Company: TNS

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 14 August to 20 August 2008

Client: TV3

Report: TV3

Party Support

Party Support

  • National 48.0% (nc)
  • Labour 37.0% (+2.0%)
  • Green 6.0% (-1.0%)
  • NZ First 3.0% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 2.0% (nc)
  • United Future 1.0% (+0.7%)
  • ACT 2.0% (+1.0%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
Projected Seats
  • National 60
  • Labour 46
  • Green 7
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 6
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 3
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 124
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
  • National 60 + ACT 3 = 63/124 – majority possible
  • Labour 46 + Progressive 1 + Greens 7 + Maori 6 + United Future 1 = 61/124 = no majority possible
The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 63 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, NZ First and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive in order of ease are Greens, NZ First, Maori Party and United Future.
Preferred PM
  • Key 34.0% (+2.0%)
  • Clark 31.0% (+3.0%)
  • Peters 3.0% (-2.0%)
  • English 3.0% (+2.0%)
Leader Ratings
  • Clark – 63% (+6%) performing well vs 22% (-7%) performing badly
  • Key – 56% (+6%) performing well vs 20% (-3%) performing badly
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TV3/TNS Poll July 2008

July 21, 2008

Polling Company: TNS

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: Not stated but usually 1,000 (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: Not stated but probably up until 18 July 2008

Client: TV3

Report: TV3

Party Support

  • National 48.0% (-2.0%)
  • Labour 35.0% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 4.0% (+0.1%)
  • Green 7.0% (+1.2%)
  • United Future 0.3% (+0.1%)
  • Maori 2.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (nc)
Projected Seats
  • National 62
  • Labour 45
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Green 9
  • United Future 1
  • Maori 6
  • ACT 1
  • Total 125
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Preferred PM

  • Key 32.0% (-3.0%)
  • Clark 28.0% (-1.0%)
  • Peters 6.0% (nc)
  • English 3.0% (+2.0%)
Personal Attacks
69% of respondents thought Helen Clark’s attack on John Key being on holiday was a personal attack, 16% said it was based on policy and 15% did not know.
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 35.2% 44
Labour 29.7% 37
Act 9.6% 12
Green 10.8% 14
NZ First 7.4% 9
Maori 3.1% 6
CR 51.2% 65
CL 44.1% 57
Total 97.9% 122
14/10/24
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