TV3 Poll early October 2010
October 16, 2010
Polling Company: Reid Research
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, of whom 863 have a party preference, (3.5% maximum margin of error)
Dates: 27 September to 06 October 2010
Client: TV3
Report:
Party Support
- National 53.8% (-0.7%)
- Labour 32.6% (+2.0%)
- Green 7.6% (-0.9%)
- ACT 0.9% (-1.3%)
- Maori 2.4% (+0.9%)
- United Future 0.3% (+0.1%)
- Progressive 0.1% (+0.1%)
- NZ First 1.2% (-0.3%)
Projected Seats
- National 67
- Labour 40
- Green 9
- ACT 1
- Maori 5
- United Future 1
- Progressive 0
- NZ First 0
- Total 123
This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats, ACT and United Future one each and Labour winning Wigram.
Coalition Options
- CR – National 67 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 69/123 – 7 more than minimum 63 needed to govern
- CL – Labour 40 + Greens 9 = 49/124 -13 less than minimum 63 needed to govern
The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.
Preferred PM
- Key 50.6% (+1.9%)
- Clark 3.7% (+1.4%)
- Goff 8.8% (+1.4%)
- Peters 3.4% (-0.3%)
Leadership Approval
- Key – 75.9% (+6.0%) doing well vs 11.9% (-4.0%) doing poorly – net positive is 64.0% (+10.0%%)
- Goff – 34.2% (+3.3%) doing well vs 41.9% (-2.0%) doing poorly – net positive is -7.7% (+5.3%)
Leadership Characteristics – Positive
- honest – Key by 18% (-2%)
- down to earth – Key by 13% (+1%)
- understands econ problems – Key by 26% (+3%)
- has personality – Key by 46% (nc)
- in touch with Maori – Key by 3% (-2%)
Leadership Characteristics – Negative
- inexperienced – Key by 3% (-10%)
- out of touch – Key by 0% (-4%)
Auckland Mayoralty (500 sample)
- 56% Brown
- 34% Banks
Rodney Hide
- 23% say he should stay as ACT leader
- 35% say he should step down
- 36% say he should resign from Parliament
Act Leadership
- 30% want Heather Roy (of those who did not say Hide should stay)
- 17% Roger Douglas
- 11% John Boscawen
- 42% None
Leave a comment