Archives: private prisons

Polling Company: Reid Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates: 08 to 16 September 2015

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

  • National 47.3% (+0.3%)
  • Labour 33.0% (+1.9%)
  • Green 10.0% (-1.4%)
  • NZ First 7.9% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 0.5% (-0.1%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.1%)
  • ACT 0.6% (+0.1%)
  • Mana 0.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 0.5% (-0.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 40
  • Green 12
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 9
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/121 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 40 + Greens 12 = 52/121 – nine fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 9 + Maori 1 = 10/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 39.5% (+1.2%)
  • Andrew Little 10.8% (+0.6%)
  • Winston Peters 8.6% (-2.7%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 3.5%

NZ Flag

  • Change flag 25%
  • Keep flag 69%

Private Prisons

  • Govt only should run them 70%
  • 13% okay with Serco running them
  • 13% okay with private providers if not Serco

Labour Deputy Leadership

  • Jacinda Ardern 33%
  • Annette King 25%
  • Kelvin Davis 11%
  • Phil Twyford 3%

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,002 of whom 849 have a party preference

Undecideds: 11%

Dates: 29 August to 02 September 2015

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 47.0% (nc)
  • Labour 32.0% (nc)
  • Green 12.0% (-1.0%)
  • NZ First 7.0% (nc)
  • Maori 1.2% (+0.8%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.1% (-0.3%)
  • Mana 0.2% (-0.3%)
  • Conservative 0.1% (+0.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 39
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 9
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/122 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 39 + Greens 14 = 53/122 – nine fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 9 + Maori 1 = 10/122

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 40.0% (nc)
  • Andrew Little 10.0% (+2.0%)
  • Winston Peters 6.0% (-1.0%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 3.0% (+1.0%)

Economic Outlook

  • Better 33% (-3%)
  • Worse 45% (+4%)
  • Same 22% (-2%)

NZ Flag

  • Change flag 28% (+2%)
  • Keep flag 66% (+2%)
  • Unsure 6% (-3%)

Foreign Investment in Sensitive Land

  • Continue current approval process 37%
  • Ban all foreign investment in sensitive land 54%

Private Prisons

  • Should should be privately run 21%
  • All should be run by Corrections 69%

TPP

  • Should sign 24%
  • Not sign 44%
  • Don’t know 32%

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Subscriber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 750 of whom 660 have a party preference

Undecideds: 12%

Dates: 14 August to 24 August 2015

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 50.8% (-0.2%)
  • Labour 31.0% (+2.3%)
  • Green 9.2% (-1.6%)
  • NZ First 6.9% (+0.8%)
  • Maori 0.2% (-0.6%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.2% (-0.6%)
  • Mana/Internet 0.2% (+0.2%)
  • Conservative 0.6% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 62
  • Labour 38
  • Green 11
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 8
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 62 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 64/122 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 11 = 49/122 – 13 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 8 + Maori 1 = 9/122

On this poll National would be able to govern alone.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 63.7% (-0.9%)
  • Andrew Little 13.3% (-0.6%)
  • Winston Peters 11.6% (-0.4%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 3.9% (+3.4%)

Country Direction

  • Right 50.9% (-4.4%)
  • Wrong 40.9% (+4.9%)

Next National Leader

  • Bill English 30.3%
  • Steven Joyce 14.2%
  • Paula Bennett 11.4%
  • Simon Bridges 7.2%

Next Labour Leader

  • Annette King 21.8%
  • Jacinda Ardern 20.1%
  • Grant Robertson 18.0%
  • Phil Twyford 4.0%

Private Prisons

  • 57% say prisons should always be run by the state
  • 38% say there is a place for well-run private companies operating prisons.

Foreign House Buyers

  • 32% support a ban on foreigners buying houses
  • 20% oppose a ban
  • 42% would support a ban if there is evidence foreign buyers are pushing prices up

NZ Flag

  • 53% against change in principle
  • 23% support change in principle
  • 24% depends on alternative designs

TPP

  • 30% oppose TPP
  • 20% support TPP
  • 45% not know enough to have a view

Iraq

  • 59% support the deployment of troops to do training (+2%)
  • 34% oppose
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