Archives: Preferred PM

One News Colmar Brunton poll October 2013

October 29, 2013

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,014 respondents of whom 820 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 11%

Dates: 19 to 23 October 2013

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 45.0% (-2.0%)
  • Labour 34.0% (nc)
  • Green 13.0% (+1.0%)
  • ACT 0.5% (+0.3%)
  • Maori 1.4% (+0.1%)
  • United Future 0.1% (-0.2%)
  • Mana 0.3% (+0.3%)
  • NZ First 3.9% (+0.3%)
  • Conservative 1.6% (+0.8%)

Projected Seats

  • National 58
  • Labour 43
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Conservative 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/123 – two fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 43 + Greens 16 + Mana 1= 60/123 – two fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/123

The Maori Party would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 43% (+1.0%)
  • David Cunliffe 12% (nc)
  • Winston Peters 4% (nc)
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One News Colmar Brunton poll September 2013

September 25, 2013

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: approx 1,000 respondents of whom approx 860 had a voting preference

Undecideds: Dates: estimate 14 to 18 September 2013

Client: One News

Report: One News

Party Support

  • National 47.0% (+1.0%)
  • Labour 34.0% (+1.0%)
  • Green 12.0% (-2.0%)
  • ACT
  • Maori 1.0% (-0.6%)
  • United Future
  • Mana
  • NZ First 4.0% (+0.7%)
  • Conservative 1.0% (+0.4%)

Projected Seats

  • National 59
  • Labour 43
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Conservative 0
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/124 – two fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 43 + Greens 16 + Mana 1= 60/124 – three fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/124

The Maori Party would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 42% (+1.0%)
  • David Cunliffe 12% (-1.0% from Shearer)
  • Winston Peters 4% (nc)
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NZ Herald Digipoll September 2013

September 25, 2013

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 8.6%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 686 had a party preference

Dates: 17 to 23 September 2013

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 43.7% (-5.1%)
  • Labour 37.7% (+6.8%)
  • Green 11.3% (+0.8%)
  • NZ First 4.4% (-0.7%)
  • Maori 0.8% (-1.0%)
  • United Future
  • ACT
  • Mana 0.7% (+0.2%)
  • Conservative 1.0% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 56
  • Labour 48
  • Green 14
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 56 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 58/124 – five fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 48 + Greens 14 + Mana 1 = 63/124 -the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/124

On this poll, there would be a centre-left Government.

Preferred PM

  • Key 55.8% (-9.4%)
  • Cunliffe 16.8% +4.4% from Shearer)
  • Peters 6.2% (-0.2%)
  • Norman 3.7% (+0.1%)

Impact of Cunliffe win on Labour

  • More likely to vote Labour 20.4%
  • Less likely to vote Labour 14.4%
  • No difference 63.0%

Subsidies

  • Film production subsidies 64% approve, 32% disapprove
  • Tiwai Point subsidy 48% approve, 46% disapprove

Republic

  • 29% support
  • 60% opposition

Charter schools

  • 45% support
  • Slightly over half think  public money should be prioritised for public schools
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One News Colmar Brunton poll July 2013

August 5, 2013

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,006 respondents of whom 862 had a voting preference

Undecideds: Dates: estimate 27 July to 31 July 2013

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 46.0% (-3.0%)
  • Labour 33.0% (nc)
  • Green 14.0% (+5.0%)
  • ACT 0.7% (+0.4%)
  • Maori 1.6% (+0.3%)
  • United Future 0.2%(-0.5%)
  • Mana 0.2% (-1.0%)
  • NZ First 3.3% (-0.3%)
  • Conservative 0.6% (-1.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 58
  • Labour 42
  • Green 17
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Conservative 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/123 – two fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 42 + Greens 17 + Mana 1= 60/123 – two fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/122

The Maori Party would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 41% (-1.0%)
  • David Shearer 13% (+1.0%)
  • Winston Peters 4% (nc)

Next National Leader

  • Bill English 23%
  • Steven Joyce 16%
  • Judith Collins 11%
  • Someone else 5%
  • Don’t know 45%

Economic Outlook

  • Better 52% (-3%)
  • Worse 28% (+2%)
  • Same 20% (+1%)

Meridian share float

  • 14% likely to buy shares
  • 86% unlikely

GST on international purchases

  • 36% support GST on online purchases of under $400
  • 59% oppose

Foreign property buyers

  • 62% support foreigners being unable to buy
  • 32% opposed

 

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3 News Reid Research Poll July 2013

July 22, 2013

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error) of whom 831 have a voting preference

Undecideds: 14.2%

Dates: 09 to 17 July 2013

Client: 3 News

Report: 3NewsPoll July 2013

Party Support

  • National 49.5% (+2.4%)
  • Labour 31.0% (-2.1%)
  • Green 12.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.2% (nc)
  • Maori 1.6%  (-0.6%)
  • United Future 0.2% (-0.2%)
  • Mana 0.2% (-0.3%)
  • NZ First 3.9% (+1.7%)
  • Conservative 1.1% (-0.4%)

Projected Seats

  • National 63
  • Labour 40
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 63 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 65/124 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 40 + Greens 15 + Mana 1 = 56/124 – seven fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/123

On this poll, there would be a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

  • Key 42.0% (+1.3%)
  • Shearer 12.1% (+1.6%)
  • Peters 7.0% (+0.9%)
  • Norman 1.7% (-1.9%)

Leadership Performance Ratings

  • John Key – 52.0% (-3.0%) well and 32.2% (+1.9%) poor = +19% net well (-4.9%)
  • David Shearer – 26.1% (-10.1%) well and 43.3% (+7.0%) poor = -17.2% net well (-17.1%)

Kim Dotcom

  • 52% believe Kim Dotcom’s claims John Key knew of him before the raids
  • 34% believe Key’s denials

David Shearer

  • 42% say Shearer should step down as Labour leader
  • 45% say Shearer should remain
  • 39% of Labour voters say Shearer should step down, 51% say stay

Alternate Labour Leaders

  • David Cunliffe 26%
  • Grant Robertson 16%
  • Andrew Little 9%
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NZ Herald poll June 2013

June 26, 2013

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 11.9%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 661 had a party preference

Dates: 12 to 23 June 2013

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 48.8% (+0.3%)
  • Labour 30.9% (-5.5%)
  • Green 10.5% (+1.5%)
  • NZ First 5.1% (+2.6%)
  • Maori 1.8% (+0.7%)
  • United Future 0.3% (+0.3%)
  • ACT 0.2% (+0.1%)
  • Mana 0.5% (nc)
  • Conservative 1.5% (+0.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 38
  • Green 13
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 6
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 60 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 62/123 – the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 13 + Mana 1 = 52/123 -10 less than minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 6 + Maori 3 = 9/123

Preferred PM

  • Key 65.2% (+2.2%)
  • Shearer 12.4% (-6.1%)
  • Peters 6.4% (+2.4%)
  • Norman 3.6%

Labour Leadership successors if Shearer goes

  • David Cunliffe 31.8%
  • Grant Robertson 16.7%
  • Andrew Little 13.5%
  • Other 11.0%
  • Unsure 27.0%

Inquiry into GCSB

  • Agree 52.1%
  • Disagree 36.9%
  • Don’t Know 11.0%

Peter Dunne

  • 22% believe he did not leak GCSB report
  • 59% do not believe his denial

Sky City deal

  • 34% approve
  • 62% disapprove

Fluoride

  • 48% support fluoride being added to drinking water
  • 25% opposed
  • 24% up to local council

Fiordland transport projects

  • 46.2% back a tunnel and/or monorail track
  • 46.2% oppose

National leadership when Key goes

  • Bill English 29.7%
  • Steven Joyce 25.4%
  • Judith Collin 13.0%

Student Loans

  • 57% agree with arresting loan defaulters at the border
  • 40% disagree

Sir Douglas Graham

  • 55% say he should lose knighthood
  • 33% disagree

Working for Families Tax Credits

  • 51% support extending to parents on welfare
  • 41% opposed

Housing developments

  • 43% back Govt having power to override councils’ planning and consent processes
  • 51% opposed
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3 News Reid Research Poll May 2013

May 26, 2013

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error) of whom 849 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 12.8%

Dates: 17 to 23 May 2013

Client: 3 News

Report: 3NewsPoll may 2013

Party Support

  • National 47.1% (-2.3%)
  • Labour 33.1% (+2.9%)
  • Green 12.0% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 0.2% (-0.3%)
  • Maori 2.2%  (+1.2%)
  • United Future 0.4% (+0.3%)
  • Mana 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • NZ First 2.2% (-1.6%)
  • Conservative 1.5% (-0.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 59
  • Labour 41
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/121 – the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 41 + Greens 15 + Mana 1 = 57/121 – four fewer than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 40.7% (+3.1%)
  • Shearer 10.5% (+0.5%)
  • Peters 6.1% (+0.8%)
  • Norman 3.6% (+0.3%)

Leadership Performance Ratings

  • John Key – 55.0% (-0.3%) well and 30.3% (-1.9%) poor = +24.7% net well (+1.6%)
  • David Shearer – 36.2% (+3.8%) well and 36.3% (+0.5%) poor = -0.1% net well (+3.3%)

Labour/Green power policy

  • Support 54%
  • Oppose 39%

Waka Jumping

  • 77% support a law to allow parties to expel from Parliament List MPs
  • 18% opposed
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One News Colmar Brunton Poll May 2013

May 26, 2013

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,011 respondents of whom 849 had a party vote preference

Undecideds: Dates: 18 to 22 May 2013

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 49.0% (+6.0%)
  • Labour 33.0% (-3.0%)
  • Green 9.0% (-4.0%)
  • ACT 0.3% (+0.2%)
  • Maori 1.3% (nc)
  • United Future 0.7% (-0.3%)
  • Mana 1.2% (+1.1%)
  • NZ First 3.6% (+0.6%)
  • Conservative 1.7% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 62
  • Labour 42
  • Green 11
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 2
  • NZ First 0
  • Conservative 0
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 62 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 64/122 – two more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 42 + Greens 11 + Mana 2= 55/122 – seven fewer than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 42% (+3.0%)
  • David Shearer 12% (-3.0%)
  • Winston Peters 4% (+1%)

Economic Outlook

  • Better 55% (+5%)
  • Same 19% (nc)
  • Worse 26% (-5%)

Food in Schools

  • 70% support the Government providing food to children at low decile schools
  • 26% against

Budget 2013

  • Personally better off 6% (+3% from 2012)
  • About the same 70% (+2%)
  • Worse off 13% (-9%)

Affordable Housing

  • 30% say Govt doing enough to keep housing affordable
  • 62% say not enough

Electricity

  • 57% support Labour/Green policy
  • 37% oppose
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One News Colmar Brunton Poll April 2013

April 21, 2013

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,009 respondents of whom 835 had a voting preference

Undecideds: Dates: 13 to 17 April 2013

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 43.0% (-6.0%)
  • Labour 36.0% (+3.0%)
  • Green 13.0% (+2.0%)
  • ACT 0.1% (nc)
  • Maori 1.3% (+0.3)
  • United Future 1.0% (+0.8%)
  • Mana 0.1% (-0.4%)
  • NZ First 3.0% (-0.9%)
  • Conservative 1.7% (+0.8%)

Projected Seats

  • National 55
  • Labour 46
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Conservative 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 55 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 57/123 – five fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 46 + Greens 16 + Mana 1= 63/123 – one more than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 39% (-5.0%)
  • David Shearer 15% (nc)
  • Winston Peters 3% (-2%)
Economic Outlook
  • Better 50% (+2%)
  • Same 19% (-3%)
  • Worse 31% (+1%)
 Partial Asset Sales
  • Support 29% (+1%)
  • Opposed 64% (nc)
  • Unsure 8% (+2%)
Paid Parental Leave
  • 62% support extension from 14 to 26 weeks
  • 34% opposed

Trust in Security Services

  • 32% do not trust
  • 32% trust
  • 33% in the middle

Relationship with China

  • 41% comfortable
  • 30% uncomfortable
  • 28% neutral
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NZ Herald DigiPoll March 2013

March 21, 2013

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: Unknown

Poll Size: 750 respondents

Dates: 11 to 17 March 2013

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 48.5% (+0.6%)
  • Labour 36.3% (+4.4%)
  • Green 9.0% (-1.7%)
  • NZ First 2.5% (-3.0%)
  • Maori 1.1% (-0.4%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.3%)
  • ACT 0.1% (-0.1%)
  • Mana 0.5% (+0.2%)
  • Conservative 1.3% (-0.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 61
  • Labour 46
  • Green 11
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 61 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 63/124 – the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 46 + Greens 11 + NZ First 0 + Mana 1 = 58/124 -5 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 63.0% (-2.6%)
  • Shearer 18.5% (+5.6%)
  • Peters 4.0%

Country Direction

  • Right 49.0% (+0.9%)
  • Wrong 43.0% (+0.3%)
Asset Sales
  • 52% opposed to sale of MRP, 32% in favour
  • 30% plan to buy shares in MRP

Term of Parliament

  • 51% 3 years
  • 48% 4 years

Marriage

  • Should remain between a man and a woman 48% (+8%)
  • Allow same-sex couples to marry 52% (-4%)
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 35.2% 44
Labour 29.7% 37
Act 9.6% 12
Green 10.8% 14
NZ First 7.4% 9
Maori 3.1% 6
CR 51.2% 65
CL 44.1% 57
Total 97.9% 122
14/10/24
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