Archives: Preferred PM

One News Colmar Brunton poll May 2014

May 25, 2014

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, of whom 755 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 17%

Dates: 17 to 21 May 2014

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 51.0% (+4.0%)
  • Labour 30.0% (-1.0%)
  • Green 11.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.8% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 0.8% (+0.1%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.1%)
  • Mana 0.4% (+0.4%)
  • NZ First 4.8% (-2.2%)
  • Conservative 1.3% (-1.0%)
  • Internet 0.7% (+0.7%)

Projected Seats

  • National 65
  • Labour 38
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Conservative 0
  • Internet 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 65 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 67/123 – five more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 14 + Mana 1 + Internet 0 = 53/123 – nine fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/123

On this poll National could form a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 43% (+1.0%)
  • David Cunliffe 10% (+2.0%)
  • Winston Peters 6% (+2.0%)

House Prices

  • 68% support register of foreign ownership of property, 22% against
  • 57% support more immigration controls to reduce house prices, 33% against

Economic Outlook

  • Better 59% (-3%)
  • Same 24% (+6%)
  • Worse 17% (-3%)

Budget

  • Better off 9% (+3%)
  • Same 66% (-4%)
  • Worse off 10% (-3%)
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Fairfax Ipsos poll May 2014

May 14, 2014

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,011

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates: 10 May to 12 May 2014

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 47.6% (-1.8%)
  • Labour 29.5% (-2.3%)
  • Green 12.7% (+2.7%)
  • NZ First 3.7% (+0.1%)
  • Maori 1.9% (+0.8%)
  • United Future 0.1% (nc)
  • ACT 0.9% (+0.4%)
  • Mana 0.5% (+0.2%)
  • Conservative 1.6% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 62
  • Labour 38
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 62 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 64/122 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 16 + Mana 1 = 55/122 – seven fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/122

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 48.6% (-1.0%)
  • David Cunliffe 13.4% (-3.9%)
  • Winston Peters 3.4% (+0.6%)

Country Direction

  • Right 63.6% (-0.1%)
  • Wrong 35.7% (+0.1%)

Time for a Change of Government

  • Yes 46.3% (-1.0%)
  • No 48.1% (+0.1%)

Keep interest rates low

  • National 40%
  • Labour 26%

Spending

  • Should increase spending in Budget 21%
  • Decrease spending 21%
  • Maintain current levels 51%

Most important issues

  • Freeze on energy and fuel prices 74% personally/69% for country
  • Tax cuts for workers 70%/69%
  • Increase minimum wage 55%/72%
  • Help first time buyers 54%/76%
  • Reduce childcare costs 44% personally/66% for country
  • Increase paid parental leave 32%/45%
  • Introduce capital gains tax 28%/44%
  • Increase pension age 26%/46%

Government performance

  • Keeping unemployment down – 52%
  • Balancing tax and expenditure – 57%
  • Managing economy 69%
  • Improve standard of living 41%
  • Improve standard of living for poor people 31%
  • Improve standard of living for rich people 75%
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3 News Reid Research Poll March 2014

March 31, 2014

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: approx 18 to 26 March 2014

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

  • National 45.9% (+1.4%)
  • Labour 31.2% (-2.3%)
  • Green 11.2% (-1.2%)
  • ACT 1.1% (+1.1%)
  • Maori 1.5%  (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
  • Mana 1.1% (+0.8%)
  • NZ First 4.9% (-0.8%)
  • Conservative 1.9% (-0.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 41
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 60 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 62/122 – the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 41 + Greens 15 + Mana 1 = 57/122 – five fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/122

On this poll, there would be a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

  • Key 42.6% (+3.6%)
  • Cunliffe 9.0% (-1.8%)
  • Peters
  • Norman

David Cunliffe

  • were his actions with his secret trust worthy of a PM – No 65%, yes 28%

Leader Ratings

  • John Key – 65% (+7%) say performing well, 26% (-3%) poorly = +39% (+10%) net approval
  • David Cunliffe – 30% (-9%) say performing well, 46% (+16%) poorly = -10% (+25%) net approval
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One News Colmar Brunton poll March 2014

March 30, 2014

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,003 respondents, of whom 767 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 18%

Dates: 22 to 26 March 2014

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 47.0% (-4.0%)
  • Labour 31.0% (-3.0%)
  • Green 11.0% (+3.0%)
  • ACT 0.3% (-0.1%)
  • Maori 0.7% (-0.2%)
  • United Future 0.1% (-0.2%)
  • Mana 0.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 7.0% (+3.9%)
  • Conservative 2.3% (+1.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 58
  • Labour 39
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 8
  • Conservative 0
  • Total 125

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/125 – three fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 39 + Greens 14 + Mana 1= 54/125 – nine fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 8 = 11/125

On this poll the Maori Party could allow a centre-right Government to be formed or both the Maori Party and NZ First could support a centre-left Government.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 42% (-1.0%)
  • David Cunliffe 8% (-2.0%)
  • Winston Peters 4% (nc)
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Herald Digipoll March 2014

March 30, 2014

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 11.4%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 665 had a party preference

Dates: 06 to 16 March 2014

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 50.8% (+4.0%)
  • Labour 29.5% (-5.9%)
  • Green 13.1% (+2.3%)
  • NZ First 3.6% (-0.3%)
  • Maori 0.2% (-1.1%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.8% (+0.8%)
  • Mana 0.1% (-0.8%)
  • Conservative 1.3% (+0.6%)

Projected Seats

  • National 65
  • Labour 37
  • Green 17
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 125

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 65 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 67/125 – four more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 17 + Mana 1 = 55/123 -eight fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/123

On this poll, National would form the Government.

Preferred PM

  • Key 66.5% (+4.6%)
  • Cunliffe 11.1% (-5.4%)
  • Peters 6.5% (-0.8%)
  • Norman 4.5% (+1.1%)

Baby Bonus of $60 a week

  • Support 47%
  • Oppose 49%

Kim Dotcom

  • Should be extradited if court rules eligible 47%
  • Should not be extradited 42%

NZ Flag

  • Support new flag 41%
  • Keep current flag 53%

Countdown

  • 51% believe Shane Jones allegations
  • 20% believe Countdown

Len Brown

  • Would vote for Brown in 2016 – 23%
  • Would not vote for Brown – 58%
  • Brown can still be an effective advocate – 52%
  • Brown should have resigned 50% (+12%)
  • Brown should not have resigned 38% (-13%)

Income Inequality

  • 44% say gap between rich and poor has got a lot bigger
  • 30% say a little bigger
  • 22% say gap the same
  • 3% say gap has closed
  • 33% say they are better off under National
  • 30% the same
  • 30% worse off
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One News Colmar Brunton poll February 2014

February 23, 2014

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,007 respondents, of whom 834 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 13%

Dates: 15 to 19 February 2014

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 51.0% (+6.0%)
  • Labour 34.0% (nc)
  • Green 8.0% (-5.0%)
  • ACT 0.4% (-0.1%)
  • Maori 0.9% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.3% (+0.2%)
  • Mana 0.0% (-0.3%)
  • NZ First 3.1% (-0.8%)
  • Conservative 1.3% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 64
  • Labour 44
  • Green 11
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Conservative 0
  • Total 125

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 64 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 66/125 – three more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 44 + Greens 11 + Mana 1= 56/125 – seven fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/125

On this poll there would be a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 43% (+1.0%)
  • David Cunliffe 10% (-2.0%)
  • Winston Peters 4% (nc)

Winston Peters

  • 43% say he should be a Minister
  • 43% say he should not

Most important issues

  • Education 40%
  • Health 37%
  • Jobs 30%
  • Child poverty 27%
  • Wages 23%
  • Crime 21%
  • Income tax 17%
  • Asset sales 17%
  • House prices 15%
  • Inequality 14%

Minimum Wage

  • Increase to more than $15/hour 23%
  • Increase to $15/hour 46%
  • Increase to less than $15/hour 16%
  • Stay at $13.75/hour 13%

NZ Flag

  • Design a new flag 28%
  • Keep current flag 72%
  • If change, 85% say public should decide design
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3 News Reid Research Poll January 2014

February 3, 2014

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: approx 21 to 28 January 2014

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

  • National 44.5% (-3.2%)
  • Labour 33.5% (+1.2%)
  • Green 12.4% (-1.6%)
  • ACT 0.0% (+0.6%)
  • Maori 1.0%  (-0.4%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.2%)
  • Mana 0.3% (+1.1%)
  • NZ First 5.7% (+0.3%)
  • Conservative 2.1% (+1.7%)

Projected Seats

  • National 55
  • Labour 42
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 125

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 55 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 57/125 – six fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 42 + Greens 15 + Mana 1 = 58/125 – five fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 3 = 10/125

On this poll, NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • Key 39.0% (-1.9%)
  • Cunliffe 10.8% (nc)
  • Peters 5.8% (-1.7%)
  • Norman

NZ First

  • 54% say John Key should work with Winston Peters, 36% say he should rule him out
  • 61% of National supporters say John Key should work with Winston Peters, 32% say he should rule him out

Internet Party

  • 21% said they would consider voting for Kim Dotcom’s Internet Party
  • 75% would not
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Herald on Sunday Key Research Poll

January 5, 2014

Polling Company: Key Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 18.6%

Poll Size: 500 respondents, of whom 407 had a voting preference

Dates: December 2013

Client: Herald on Sunday

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 48.2%
  • Labour 39.6%
  • Green 7.6%
  • NZ First 1.0%
  • Maori 0.7%
  • United Future 1.0%
  • ACT 0%
  • Mana 0.2%
  • Conservative 0.7%

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 49
  • Green 9
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 60 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 62/124 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 49 + Greens 9 + Mana 1 = 59/124 -four fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/124

On this poll, the Maori Party would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • Key 45%
  • Cunliffe 18%

Asset Sales

  • 37% say less likely to vote National because of them
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NZ Herald Digipoll December 2013

January 5, 2014

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 12.6%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 656 had a party preference

Dates: 09 to 17 December 2013

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 46.8% (+3.1%)
  • Labour 35.4% (-2.3%)
  • Green 10.8% (-0.5%)
  • NZ First 3.9% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 1.3% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.0% (-0.1%)
  • Mana 0.9% (+0.2%)
  • Conservative 0.7% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 59
  • Labour 44
  • Green 14
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/123 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 44 + Greens 14 + Mana 1 = 59/123 -three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/123

On this poll, the Maori Party would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • Key 61.9% (+6.1%)
  • Cunliffe 16.5% (-0.3%)
  • Peters 7.3% (+1.1%)
  • Norman 3.4% (-0.3%)

Pike River

  • Shareholders should pay compensation 64.4%
  • Government should pay compensation 19.8%

GST

  • Should be charged on all overseas purchases 40%
  • Current exemption level of $400 should remain 53%

Berms

  • Mowing berms responsibility of householder 60%
  • Mowing berms responsibility of council 34%

Sex Education

  • 75% say should teach more than the physical and medical aspects of sex

Fireworks

  • 39% want sale of fireworks banned
  • 60% happy with current rules

Speed limit

  • 67% support reducing tolerance to 4 km/hr
  • 29% against

Hauraki Gulf

  • Ban commercial fishing in Hauraki Gulf 53%
  • Support status quo 29%

Mining

  • 58% support oil, gas and mineral exploration
  • 38% against

Land sales

  • 55% support bill limiting land sales to foreigners

Drink Driving

  • 28% support that a BAC between 0.05 and 0.08 should be a criminal offence, with most supporting it being an infringement only.

Conservatives

  • 33% think Colin Craig’s views are too extreme
  • 24% say he is a welcome addition to political debates
  • 43% don’t know

Gender Quotas

  • 54% (52% of women) say Labour’s gender quota too restrictive
  • 38% (42% of women) say a good idea
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3 News Reid Research Poll November 2013

November 10, 2013

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error) of whom approx 857 have a voting preference

Undecideds: 14.3%

Dates: approx 03 to 07 November 2013

Client: 3 News

Report: 3NewsPoll november 2013

Party Support

  • National 46.3% (-3.2%)
  • Labour 32.2% (+1.2%)
  • Green 10.4% (-1.6%)
  • ACT 0.8% (+0.6%)
  • Maori 1.2%  (-0.4%)
  • United Future 0.1% (-0.2%)
  • Mana 1.3% (+1.1%)
  • NZ First 4.2% (+0.3%)
  • Conservative 2.8% (+1.7%)

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 42
  • Green 14
  • ACT 0
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 2
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on ACT losing Epsom and the Maori Party losing one seat.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 60 + ACT 0 + United Future 1 = 61/121 – the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 42 + Greens 14 + Mana 2 = 58/121 – three fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 2 = 2/122

On this poll, there would be a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

  • Key 40.9% (-1.1%)
  • Cunliffe 10.8% (-1.3% from Shearer)
  • Peters 7.5% (+0.5%)
  • Norman 2.2% (+0.5%)

Leader Ratings

  • John Key – 58% well (+6%) and 28% poor (-4%) = 30% net positive (+10%)
  • David Cunliffe – 42% well (+16% from Shearer) and 25% poor (-19%) = 18% net positive (+35%)

KiwiAssure

  • 42% support a state insurer
  • 49% oppose it
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 35.2% 44
Labour 29.7% 37
Act 9.6% 12
Green 10.8% 14
NZ First 7.4% 9
Maori 3.1% 6
CR 51.2% 65
CL 44.1% 57
Total 97.9% 122
14/10/24
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