Archives: Preferred PM

Fairfax Ipsos poll August 2014

August 15, 2014

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1007 respondents of whom 854 have a party preference

Undecideds: 15.4%

Dates:Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 55.1% (+0.3%)
  • Labour 22.5% (-2.4%)
  • Green 11.3% (-1.1%)
  • NZ First 3.4% (+0.8%)
  • Maori 1.0% (+0.1%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.2%)
  • ACT 0.2% (+0.1%)
  • Mana 2.1% (+0.9%)
  • Conservative 3.4% (+2.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 72
  • Labour 29
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 3
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats. Coalition Options

  • CR – National 72 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 74/124 – 11 more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 29 + Greens 15 + Mana 3 = 47/124 – 16 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/124

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 59.5% (+1.3%)
  • David Cunliffe 14.1% (-0.1%)

Country Direction

  • Right 65.4% (+1.3%)
  • Wrong 33.5% (-0.6%)

Foreign Ownership

  • 74% say should be harder for foreign investors to buy large farmland
  • 24% disagree
  • 53% say too much farmland has been sold
  • 41% disagree
  • 64% say NZ benefits from more foreign investment
  • 31% disagree

Political Donations

  • Reveal identity of all donors to political parties 68% agree
  • 31% disagree

Government Approval

  • 6.0/10 (no change

Time for change of Government

  • Yes 40% (-1%)
  • No 50% (-1%)
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One News Colmar Brunton poll July 2014

July 29, 2014

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,001 respondents, of whom 828 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 10%

Dates: 19 to 23 July 2014

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 52.0% (+2.0%)
  • Labour 28.0% (-1.0%)
  • Green 10.0% (-2.0%)
  • ACT 0.8% (+0.1%)
  • Maori 0.6% (-0.6%)
  • United Future 0.2% (+0.2%)
  • Mana/Internet 2.0% (-0.3%)
  • NZ First 4.4% (+0.6%)
  • Conservative 1.7% (+0.7%)

Projected Seats

  • National 66
  • Labour 36
  • Green 13
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 3
  • NZ First 0
  • Conservative 0
  • Internet 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 66 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 68/123 – six more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 13 + Mana/Internet 3 = 52/123 – ten fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/123

On this poll National could form a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 48% (+1.0%)
  • David Cunliffe 8% (-2%)
  • Winston Peters 3% (+1.0%)

 

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NZ Herald Digipoll July 2014

July 26, 2014

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 11.5%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 664 had a party preference

Dates: 10 to 17 July 2014

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 54.9% (+4.5%)
  • Labour 26.5% (-4.0%)
  • Green 9.9% (-0.8%)
  • NZ First 4.6% (+1.0%)
  • Maori 0.5% (-0.3%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.1%)
  • ACT 0.0% (-0.7%)
  • Mana/Internet 2.2% (+0.8%)
  • Conservative 1.2% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 69
  • Labour 34
  • Green 13
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Mana/Internet 3
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 69 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 71/124 – eight more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 34 + Greens 13 + Mana/Internet 3 = 49/124 -14 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/124

On this poll, National would form the Government.

Preferred PM

  • Key 73.3% (+7.4%)
  • Cunliffe 10.5% (-2.2%)
  • Peters 5.5% (-0.7%)
  • Norman 2.0% (-0.5%)

Fat Tax

  • 55% support a fat tax on sugar-high food
  • 43% oppose

Healthy Star Ratings

  • 82% support introduction

Education

  • 61% want money spent on improving teaching standards
  • 35% on reducing class sizes

School Donations

  • 52% support Labour policy of $100 per student funding if they do not ask for a donation
  • 37% say it is unfair

Cunliffe man apology

  • 42% say was silly and showed poor judgement
  • 45% say unusual way to make point about domestic violence

Auckland Council

  • 43% of Aucklanders want staff and salary cuts for Auckland Council
  • 20% support rates going up more than 2.5%
  • 19% support delaying the City Rail Link
  • 9% support reducing services
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3 News Reid Research poll July 2014

July 26, 2014

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: June 2014

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: 8 to 16 July 2014

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

  • National 49.4% (-0.3%)
  • Labour 26.7% (-0.6%)
  • Green 12.4% (-0.3%)
  • ACT 0.1% (-0.3%)
  • Maori 1.1%  (-0.4%)
  • United Future 0.2% (+0.2%)
  • Mana/Internet 2.3% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 4.3% (+0.7%)
  • Conservative 2.7% (-0.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 65
  • Labour 35
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 3
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 65 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 67/124 – four more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 35 + Greens 16 + Mana/Internet 2 = 54/124 – nine fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 0/124

On this poll, there would be a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

  • Key 43.8% (-2.9%)
  • Cunliffe 9.5% (-0.1%)

Mana/Internet

  • 59% oppose Labour working with Internet Mana to form a Government
  • 29% support
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Fairfax Ipsos poll July 2014

July 17, 2014

Polling Company: Ipsos Poll Method: Random Phone Poll Size: 1024 respondents of whom 823 have a party preference Undecideds: 15.3% Dates: Client: Fairfax Report: Stuff Party Support

  • National 54.8% (-1.7%)
  • Labour 24.9% (+1.7%)
  • Green 12.4% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 2.6% (-0.6%)
  • Maori 0.9% (+0.2%)
  • United Future 0.2% (+0.2%)
  • ACT 0.1% (-0.6%)
  • Mana 1.2% (nc)
  • Conservative 1.3% (+0.4%)

Projected Seats

  • National 69
  • Labour 32
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 2
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats. Coalition Options

  • CR – National 69 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 71/124 – eight more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 32 + Greens 16 + Mana 2 = 50/124 – thirteen fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/124

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed. Preferred PM

  • John Key 58.2% (+4.9%)
  • David Cunliffe 14.2% (+2.3%)
  • Winston Peters
  • Russel Norman

Time for a Change of Government

  • Yes 41.1% (-2.7%)
  • No 51.3% (+3.3%)

Leadership Changes

  • Labour would gain 15.2% and lose 1.7% for a net gain of 13.6% if David Cunliffe is not leader
  • National would gain 12.4% and lose 5.3% for a net gain of 7.1% if John Key is not leader

NZ First Coalition preferences

  • Expect National 32.1%
  • Expect Labour 29.2%
  • Neither 20.2%
  • Don’t Know 18.9%

Transport

  • 30% say focus should be public transport
  • 24% say roads
  • 40% say both
  • 57% say Government doing enough to ease traffic jams
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One News Colmar Brunton poll June 2014

June 29, 2014

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,002 respondents, of whom 813 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 15%

Dates: 21 to 25 June 2014

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 50.0% (-1.0%)
  • Labour 29.0% (-1.0%)
  • Green 12.0% (+1.0%)
  • ACT 0.7% (-0.1%)
  • Maori 1.2% (+0.4%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 2.3% (+1.2%)
  • NZ First 3.8% (-1.0%)
  • Conservative 1.0% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 64
  • Labour 36
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 3
  • NZ First 0
  • Conservative 0
  • Internet 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 64 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 66/123 – four more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 15 + Mana/Internet 3 = 54/123 – eight fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/123

On this poll National could form a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 47% (+4.0%)
  • David Cunliffe 10% (nc)
  • Winston Peters 2% (-4.0%)

Coalitions

  • 75% say parties should declare before election day who they would work with
  • 19% disagree

Team NZ

  • 62% say Team NZ should rely on private sponsorship from now on
  • 30% say the Government should give Team NZ more money
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3 News Reid Research poll June 2014

June 26, 2014

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: June 2014

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

  • National 49.7% (-0.6%)
  • Labour 27.2% (-2.2%)
  • Green 12.7% (+2.5%)
  • ACT 0.4% (-0.2%)
  • Maori 1.5%  (+0.9%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 1.8% (+1.0%)
  • NZ First 3.6% (-2.0%)
  • Conservative 2.8% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 64
  • Labour 35
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 2
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 64 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 66/122 – four more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 16 + Mana/Internet 2 = 54/122 – eight fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 0/124

On this poll, there would be a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

  • Key 46.7% (+0.4%)
  • Cunliffe 9.6% (-0.2%)
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Fairfax Ipsos poll June 2014

June 19, 2014

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1017 respondents of whom 777 have a party preference

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates: 14 to 17 June 2014

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 56.6% (+8.9%)
  • Labour 23.2% (-6.3%)
  • Green 11.9% (-0.9%)
  • NZ First 3.2% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 0.7% (-1.2%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.7% (-0.2%)
  • Mana 1.2% (+0.7%)
  • Conservative 0.9% (-0.7%)

Projected Seats

  • National 72
  • Labour 30
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 2
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 72 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 74/123 – twelve more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 30 + Greens 15 + Mana 2 = 47/123 – fifteen fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/122

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 53.3% (+4.7%)
  • David Cunliffe 11.9% (-1.5%)
  • Winston Peters 2.5% (-0.9%)
  • Russel Norman 2.8% (+0.8%)

Country Direction

  • Right 63.1% (-0.5%)
  • Wrong 35.4% (-0.2%)

Time for a Change of Government

  • Yes 43.8% (-2.5%)
  • No 48.0% (-0.1%)

Government Performance Out of 10

  • 0 – 2: 9.4% (+0.4%)
  • 3 – 7: 66.0% (-1.0%)
  • 8 – 10: 24.0% (nc)

Most Important Issues

  • Education 22%
  • Economy 21%
  • Health 19%
  • Unemployment 14%
  • Housing Affordability 12%
  • Immigration 4%

MMP Electorate seat threshold

  • 82% against “coat tailing”
  • 14% in favour

Expectation of tax cuts

  • 30% expect tax cuts
  • 61% do not

John Key

  • 22% say they would vote National if John Key stood down
  • 36% say they might depending on who replaced him
  • 39% would not
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NZ Herald Digipoll June 2014

June 17, 2014

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 12.2%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 659 had a party preference

Dates: 06 to 15 June 2014

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 50.4% (-0.4%)
  • Labour 30.5% (+1.0%)
  • Green 10.7% (-2.4%)
  • NZ First 3.6% (nc)
  • Maori 0.8% (+0.6%)
  • United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
  • ACT 0.7% (-0.1%)
  • Mana/Internet 1.4% (+1.3%)
  • Conservative 1.5% (+0.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 64
  • Labour 38
  • Green 14
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Mana/Internet 2
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 64 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 66/123 – four more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 14 + Mana/Internet 2 = 54/123 -eight fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/123

On this poll, National would form the Government.

Preferred PM

  • Key 65.9% (-0.6%)
  • Cunliffe 12.7% (+1.6%)
  • Peters 6.2% (-0.3%)
  • Norman 2.5% (-2.0%)

Electorate MP threshold

  • Keep 50%
  • Remove and drop threshold to 4% – 36%

Mana/Internet deal

  • Unprincipled rort 43%
  • Legitimate use of MMP 33%

Country Direction

  • Right 65%

Political Fundraising

  • 42% say politicians speaking regularly to donors in private meetings is a bad look
  • 30% say nothing wrong
  • 21% say it is corrupt

Capital Gains Tax

  • 41% favour
  • 35% opposed

Cannabis

  • 33% decriminalise
  • 20% legalise
  • 45% remain illegal

Immigration

  • Levels about right 50%
  • Too high 35%

Coalition Partners

  • Preferred coalition partner for Labour is Greens 50% then NZ First 35%
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3 News Reid Research poll May 2014

May 25, 2014

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: approx 17 to 22 May 2014

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

  • National 50.3% (+4.4%)
  • Labour 29.5% (-1.7%)
  • Green 10.2% (-1.0%)
  • ACT 0.5% (-0.6%)
  • Maori 0.6%  (-0.9%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.1%)
  • Mana 0.2% (-0.9%)
  • NZ First 5.6% (+0.7%)
  • Conservative 2.3% (+0.4%)
  • Internet 0.6% (+0.6%)

Projected Seats

  • National 62
  • Labour 36
  • Green 13
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 62 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 64/124 – one more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 13 + Mana 1 + Internet 0 = 50/124 – thirteen fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 3 = 10/124

On this poll, there would be a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

  • Key 46.3% (+3.7%)
  • Cunliffe 9.8% (+0.8%)
  • Peters
  • Norman

2014 Budget

  • 73% like Budget 24% dislike
  • 67% of Labour voters like it

Immigration

  • 62% support tighter restrictions on immigration
  • 35% oppose
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 35.2% 44
Labour 29.7% 37
Act 9.6% 12
Green 10.8% 14
NZ First 7.4% 9
Maori 3.1% 6
CR 51.2% 65
CL 44.1% 57
Total 97.9% 122
14/10/24
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