Archives: Preferred PM

One News Colmar Brunton poll early September 2014

September 6, 2014

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,001 respondents, of whom 882 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 7%

Dates: 30 August to 03 September 2014

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 50.0% (+2.0%)
  • Labour 26.0% (-2.0%
  • Green 11.0% (-1.0%)
  • ACT 0.1% (-0.3%)
  • Maori 0.2% (-0.4%)
  • United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
  • Mana/Internet 2.4% (+0.8%)
  • NZ First 7.0% (+1.0%)
  • Conservative 2.9% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 63
  • Labour 32
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 3
  • NZ First 8
  • Conservative 0
  • Total 125

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 63 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 65/125 – two more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 32 + Greens 14 + Mana/Internet 3 = 49/125 – 14 fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 8 = 11/125

On this poll National could form a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 48% (+1.0%)
  • David Cunliffe 14% (+2%)
  • Winston Peters 4% (-1.0%)

Next National Party Leader

  • Bill English 28%
  • Steven Joyce 16%
  • Paula Bennett 7%
  • Judith Collins 2%
  • Michael Woodhouse 2%

Economic Outlook

  • Better 56% (nc)
  • Worse 17% (-2%)
  • Same 27% (+2%)

Preferred Housing Policies

  • National 44%
  • Labour 21%
  • Greens 31%
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NZ Herald DigiPoll early September 2014

September 5, 2014

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds:

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom xxx had a party preference

Dates: 28 August to 03 September 2014

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 50.1% (-0.6%)
  • Labour 23.8% (-0.3%)
  • Green 11.4% (nc)
  • NZ First 6.0% (+1.0%)
  • Maori 0.4% (-0.6%)
  • United Future 0.2% (+0.1%)
  • ACT 0.4% (+0.1%)
  • Mana/Internet 3.5% (+0.1%)
  • Conservative 3.8% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 63
  • Labour 30
  • Green 14
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Mana/Internet 4
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 63 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 65/123 – three more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 30 + Greens 14 + Mana/Internet 4 = 48/123 – 14 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 3 = 10/123

On this poll, National would form the Government.

Preferred PM

  • Key
  • Cunliffe
  • Peters
  • Norman

Coalition preferences

  • 47% say National should go with NZ First, 35% Conservatives
  • Among National voters, 47% Conservatives, 38% NZ First

Farmers and Environment

  • 47% agree that farmers were continually improving their practices and were unfairly criticised by environmentalists.
  • 39% of respondents agreed that farmers were moving too slowly to improve their practices
  • 7% said they deserve all the criticism they get from environmentalists
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Fairfax Ipsos poll early September 2014

September 5, 2014

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1000 respondents of whom 819 have a party preference

Undecideds: 13.0%

Dates: 28 August to 03 September 2014

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 54.2% (+3.4%)
  • Labour 24.3% (-1.8%)
  • Green 12.9% (+1.1%)
  • NZ First 3.6% (-0.4%)
  • Maori 0.3% (-0.4%)
  • United Future 0.1% (nc)
  • ACT 0.2% (-0.5%)
  • Mana 1.3% (-0.9%)
  • Conservative 2.4% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 70
  • Labour 31
  • Green 17
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 2
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 125

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 70 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 72/125 – nine more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 31 + Greens 17 + Mana 2 = 50/125 – 13 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/125

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 57.6% (+2.6%)
  • David Cunliffe 15.8% (-2.1%)

 

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3 News Poll late late August 2014

September 3, 2014

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: 26 to 31 August 2014

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

  • National 46.4% (+1.4%)
  • Labour 25.9% (-0.5%)
  • Green 12.6% (-0.9%)
  • ACT 0.6% (+0.3%)
  • Maori 2.0%  (+1.3%)
  • United Future 0.1% (-0.3%)
  • Mana/Internet 1.7% (-0.4%)
  • NZ First 5.8% (-0.5%)
  • Conservative 4.2% (-0.4%)

Projected Seats

  • National 58
  • Labour 33
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 2
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/121 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 16 + Mana/Internet 2 = 51/121 – ten fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 3 = 10/121

On this poll, the centre parties would hold the balance of power. National could govern with NZ First or with the Maori Party (and ACT/UF). Labour could only govern with the Greens, Internet Mana, NZ First and the Maori Party.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 45.1% (+3.7%)
  • David Cunliffe 11.4% (+0.3%)

 

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One News Colmar Brunton poll late August 2014

September 2, 2014

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, of whom 843 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 12%

Dates: 23 to 27 August 2014

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 48.0% (-2.0%)
  • Labour 28.0% (+2.0%
  • Green 12.0% (+1.0%)
  • ACT 0.4% (+1.0%)
  • Maori 0.6% (-0.3%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 1.6% (-2.3%)
  • NZ First 6.0% (+1.0%)
  • Conservative 3.2% (+0.8%)

Projected Seats

  • National 59
  • Labour 35
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 2
  • NZ First 8
  • Conservative 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/123 – one fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 35 + Greens 14 + Mana/Internet 2 = 51/123 – 11 fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 8 = 11/124

On this poll National could form a centre-right Governmentwith either the Maori Party or NZ First. Labour could form a Government with both NZ First and Maori Party (and Greens and Internet Mana).

Preferred PM

  • John Key 47% (+2.0%)
  • David Cunliffe 12% (+2%)
  • Winston Peters 5% (+1.0%)

Economic Outlook

  • Better 56% (+8%)
  • Worse 19% (-3%)
  • Same 25% (-5%)

Hager book

  • Believe allegations 41% (+13%)
  • Not believe 35% (-8%)
  • Unsure 24% (-5%)
  • Net negatively influenced view of National 13% (+8%)
  • Collins should stand down 61% agree, 26% disagree
  • Key informed of SIS OIA released – 41% believe he was not, 44% do not believe him

 

 

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Fairfax Ipsos poll late August 2014

August 29, 2014

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1000 respondents of whom 825 have a party preference

Undecideds: 17.5%

Dates: 21 to 27 August 2014

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 50.8% (-4.3%)
  • Labour 26.1% (+3.6%)
  • Green 11.8% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 4.0% (+0.6%)
  • Maori 0.7% (-0.3%)
  • United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
  • ACT 0.7% (+0.5%)
  • Mana 2.2% (+0.1%)
  • Conservative 2.7% (-0.7%)

Projected Seats

  • National 66
  • Labour 34
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 3
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 66 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 68/123 – six more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 34 + Greens 15 + Mana 3 = 52/123 – 10 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/123

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 55.0% (-4.5%)
  • David Cunliffe 17.9% (+3.8%)

Dirty Politics

  • 30% say all parties do it
  • 28% say National worst
  • 17% Internet-Mana
  • 17% Labour
  • 47% say book damages John Key, 43% disagree
  • 8% say it has led them to change their vote
  • 55% say all politicians play “dirty”
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NZ Herald Digipoll late August 2014

August 28, 2014

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 7.5%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 691 had a party preference

Dates: 21 to 27 August 2014

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 50.7% (+0.7%)
  • Labour 24.1% (-1.1%)
  • Green 11.4% (-1.7%)
  • NZ First 5.0% (+0.7%)
  • Maori 1.0% (+0.3%)
  • United Future 0.2% (-0.2%)
  • ACT 0.3% (-0.3%)
  • Mana/Internet 3.4% (+1.3%)
  • Conservative 3.3% (+0.7%)

Projected Seats

  • National 64
  • Labour 31
  • Green 14
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Mana/Internet 4
  • NZ First 6
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 64 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 66/124 – three more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 31 + Greens 14 + Mana/Internet 4 = 49/124 – 14 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 6 + Maori 3 = 9/124

On this poll, National would form the Government.

Preferred PM

  • Key 67.8% (+3.0%)
  • Cunliffe 11.6% (-3.0%)
  • Peters 8.2% (+3.1%)
  • Norman 3.8% (+0.3%)

 Judith Collins

  • Should resign 46%
  • Should not resign 46%

Dirty Politics book

  • 53% say media coverage justified
  • 30% say not
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NZ Herald DigiPoll mid August 2014

August 22, 2014

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 12.5%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 656 had a party preference

Dates: 14 to 20 August 2014

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 50.0% (-4.9%)
  • Labour 25.2% (-1.3%)
  • Green 13.7% (+3.8%)
  • NZ First 4.7% (+0.1%)
  • Maori 0.7% (+0.2%)
  • United Future 0.4% (+0.4%)
  • ACT 0.6% (+0.6%)
  • Mana/Internet 2.1% (-0.1%)
  • Conservative 2.6% (+1.4%)

Projected Seats

  • National 64
  • Labour 32
  • Green 18
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Mana/Internet 3
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 64 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 66/122 – three more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 32 + Greens 18 + Mana/Internet 3 = 53/124 – nine fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/122

On this poll, National would form the Government.

Preferred PM

  • Key 64.8% (-8.5%)
  • Cunliffe 14.6% (+4.1%)
  • Peters 5.1% (-0.4%)
  • Norman 3.5% (+1.5%)

Leader Approval

  • John Key – 59.6% approve and 16.6% disapprove = +43.0% net approval
  • David Cunliffe – 19.2% approve and 31.9% disapprove = -12.7% net approval

Hager Book

  • 11% say it will cause a lot of damage
  • 43% little damage
  • 25% no damage

Farm Sales to Foreigners

  • 13% no restrictions
  • 33% ban
  • 50%+ approve if it brings advantages such as jobs

Referenda

  • 66% say referenda should be binding on the Government
  • 22% disagree
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3 News Reid Research poll August 2014

August 17, 2014

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: 7 to 12 August 2014 approx

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

  • National 47.5% (-1.9%)
  • Labour 29.0% (+2.3%)
  • Green 13.0% (+0.6%)
  • ACT 0.3% (+0.2%)
  • Maori 0.8%  (-0.3%)
  • United Future 0.2% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 2.0% (-0.3%)
  • NZ First 4.6% (+0.3%)
  • Conservative 2.5% (-0.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 61
  • Labour 38
  • Green 17
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 3
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 61 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 63/124 – the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 17 + Mana/Internet 3 = 58/124 – five fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/124

On this poll, there would be a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

  • Key 44.1% (+0.3%)
  • Cunliffe 9.9% (-0.1%)
  • Peters 6.7% (+1.4%)

Foreign Ownership

  • 77% want stricter controls on foreign ownership of land, 20% do not
  • 68% against sale of Lochinver Station, 25% in favour
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One News Colmar Brunton poll August 2014

August 17, 2014

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, of whom 824 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 15%

Dates: 9 to 13 August 2014

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 50.0% (-2.0%)
  • Labour 26.0% (-2.0%
  • Green 11.0% (+1.0%)
  • ACT 0.6% (-0.2%)
  • Maori 0.9% (+0.3%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.2%)
  • Mana/Internet 3.9% (+1.9%)
  • NZ First 5.0% (+0.4%)
  • Conservative 2.4% (+0.7%)

Projected Seats

  • National 62
  • Labour 31
  • Green 13
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 5
  • NZ First 7
  • Conservative 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 62 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 64/123 – two more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 31 + Greens 13 + Mana/Internet 5 = 49/123 – 13 fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 7 = 10/123

On this poll National could form a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 45% (-3.0%)
  • David Cunliffe 10% (+2%)
  • Winston Peters 4% (+1.0%)

 

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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 35.2% 44
Labour 29.7% 37
Act 9.6% 12
Green 10.8% 14
NZ First 7.4% 9
Maori 3.1% 6
CR 51.2% 65
CL 44.1% 57
Total 97.9% 122
14/10/24
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