Archives: Preferred PM

Polling Company: Reid Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates: 08 to 16 November 2015

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

• National 46.7% (-0.6%)
• Labour 32.3% (-0.7%)
• Green 10.2% (+0.2%)
• NZ First 7.5% (-0.4%)
• Maori 1.3% (+0.8%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.8% (+0.2%)
• Mana 0.0% (nc)
• Conservative 0.7% (+0.2%)

Projected Seats

• National 57
• Labour 39
• Green 12
• ACT 1
• Maori 2
• United Future 1
• NZ First 9
• Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/121 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 39 + Greens 12 = 51/121 – 10 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 9 + Maori 2 = 11/122

On this poll National could form a CR government with either Maori Party or NZ First while Labour would need both the Maori Party and NZ First.

Preferred PM

• John Key 38.3% (-1.2%)
• Andrew Little 10.4% (-0.4%)
• Winston Peters 9.3% (+0.7%)
• Jacinda Ardern 4.2% (+0.7%)

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,002 of whom 832 have a party preference

Undecideds: 12%

Dates: 10 to 14 October 2015

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

• National 47.0% (nc)
• Labour 31.0% (-1%)
• Green 12.0% (nc)
• NZ First 9.0% (+2%)
• Maori 0.8% (-0.4%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.2% (+0.1%)
• Mana 0.0% (-0.2%)
• Conservative 0.4% (+0.3%)

Projected Seats

• National 57
• Labour 38
• Green 14
• ACT 1
• Maori 1
• United Future 1
• NZ First 10
• Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/122 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 38 + Greens 14 = 52/122 – ten fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 10 + Maori 1 = 11/122

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

• John Key 40.0% (nc)
• Andrew Little 8.0% (-2%)
• Winston Peters 8.0% (+2%)
• Jacinda Ardern 3.0% (nc)

Economic Outlook

• Better 42% (+9%)
• Worse 33% (-12%)
• Same 25% (+3%)

Smoke free areas

• 53% support extending smoke free areas to outside areas of bars and restaurants
• 45% disagree

Contraception

• 70% say government should encourage contraception for mothers who have had multiple children placed into CYF care
• 24% disagree

Benefits in Australia

• 67% say NZ should restrict benefit eligibility for Australians, as Australia does for NZers

Australian Deportations

• 58% say NZ should deport Australians who have served prison sentences of 12 months or more

Polling Company: Reid Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates: 08 to 16 September 2015

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

• National 47.3% (+0.3%)
• Labour 33.0% (+1.9%)
• Green 10.0% (-1.4%)
• NZ First 7.9% (-0.5%)
• Maori 0.5% (-0.1%)
• United Future 0.0% (-0.1%)
• ACT 0.6% (+0.1%)
• Mana 0.0% (nc)
• Conservative 0.5% (-0.2%)

Projected Seats

• National 57
• Labour 40
• Green 12
• ACT 1
• Maori 1
• United Future 1
• NZ First 9
• Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/121 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 40 + Greens 12 = 52/121 – nine fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 9 + Maori 1 = 10/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

• John Key 39.5% (+1.2%)
• Andrew Little 10.8% (+0.6%)
• Winston Peters 8.6% (-2.7%)
• Jacinda Ardern 3.5%

NZ Flag

• Change flag 25%
• Keep flag 69%

Private Prisons

• Govt only should run them 70%
• 13% okay with Serco running them
• 13% okay with private providers if not Serco

Labour Deputy Leadership

• Jacinda Ardern 33%
• Annette King 25%
• Kelvin Davis 11%
• Phil Twyford 3%

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,002 of whom 849 have a party preference

Undecideds: 11%

Dates: 29 August to 02 September 2015

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

• National 47.0% (nc)
• Labour 32.0% (nc)
• Green 12.0% (-1.0%)
• NZ First 7.0% (nc)
• Maori 1.2% (+0.8%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.1% (-0.3%)
• Mana 0.2% (-0.3%)
• Conservative 0.1% (+0.1%)

Projected Seats

• National 57
• Labour 39
• Green 14
• ACT 1
• Maori 1
• United Future 1
• NZ First 9
• Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/122 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 39 + Greens 14 = 53/122 – nine fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 9 + Maori 1 = 10/122

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

• John Key 40.0% (nc)
• Andrew Little 10.0% (+2.0%)
• Winston Peters 6.0% (-1.0%)
• Jacinda Ardern 3.0% (+1.0%)

Economic Outlook

• Better 33% (-3%)
• Worse 45% (+4%)
• Same 22% (-2%)

NZ Flag

• Change flag 28% (+2%)
• Keep flag 66% (+2%)
• Unsure 6% (-3%)

Foreign Investment in Sensitive Land

• Continue current approval process 37%
• Ban all foreign investment in sensitive land 54%

Private Prisons

• Should should be privately run 21%
• All should be run by Corrections 69%

TPP

• Should sign 24%
• Not sign 44%
• Don’t know 32%

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Subscriber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 750 of whom 660 have a party preference

Undecideds: 12%

Dates: 14 August to 24 August 2015

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

• National 50.8% (-0.2%)
• Labour 31.0% (+2.3%)
• Green 9.2% (-1.6%)
• NZ First 6.9% (+0.8%)
• Maori 0.2% (-0.6%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.2% (-0.6%)
• Mana/Internet 0.2% (+0.2%)
• Conservative 0.6% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

• National 62
• Labour 38
• Green 11
• ACT 1
• Maori 1
• United Future 1
• NZ First 8
• Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 62 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 64/122 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 38 + Greens 11 = 49/122 – 13 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 8 + Maori 1 = 9/122

On this poll National would be able to govern alone.

Preferred PM

• John Key 63.7% (-0.9%)
• Andrew Little 13.3% (-0.6%)
• Winston Peters 11.6% (-0.4%)
• Jacinda Ardern 3.9% (+3.4%)

Country Direction

• Right 50.9% (-4.4%)
• Wrong 40.9% (+4.9%)

Next National Leader

• Bill English 30.3%
• Steven Joyce 14.2%
• Paula Bennett 11.4%
• Simon Bridges 7.2%

Next Labour Leader

• Annette King 21.8%
• Jacinda Ardern 20.1%
• Grant Robertson 18.0%
• Phil Twyford 4.0%

Private Prisons

• 57% say prisons should always be run by the state
• 38% say there is a place for well-run private companies operating prisons.

Foreign House Buyers

• 32% support a ban on foreigners buying houses
• 20% oppose a ban
• 42% would support a ban if there is evidence foreign buyers are pushing prices up

NZ Flag

• 53% against change in principle
• 23% support change in principle
• 24% depends on alternative designs

TPP

• 30% oppose TPP
• 20% support TPP
• 45% not know enough to have a view

Iraq

• 59% support the deployment of troops to do training (+2%)
• 34% oppose

Polling Company: Reid Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates: 15 to 22 July 2015

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

• National 47.0% (+0.6%)
• Labour 31.1% (+0.7%)
• Green 11.4% (+0.3%)
• NZ First 8.4% (+0.3%)
• Maori 0.6% (-0.5%)
• United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
• ACT 0.5% (nc)
• Mana 0.0% (nc)
• Conservative 0.7% (-1.2%)

Projected Seats

• National 57
• Labour 37
• Green 14
• ACT 1
• Maori 1
• United Future 1
• NZ First 10
• Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/121 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 37 + Greens 14 = 51/121 – ten fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 10 + Maori 1 = 11/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

• John Key 38.3% (-1.1%)
• Andrew Little 10.2% (-1.4%)
• Winston Peters 11.3% (+0.1%)

Foreign buyers

• 61% support banning foreign buyers from buying houses
• 35% oppose
• 4% don’t know

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 of whom 856 have a party preference

Undecideds: 12%

Dates: 11 to 15 July 2015

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

• National 47.0% (-1.0%)
• Labour 32.0% (+1.0%)
• Green 13.0% (+3.0%)
• NZ First 7.0% (nc)
• Maori 0.4% (-1.1%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.4% (+0.3%)
• Mana 0.5% (+0.5%)
• Conservative 0.0% (-2.3%)

Projected Seats

• National 57
• Labour 39
• Green 16
• ACT 1
• Maori 1
• United Future 1
• NZ First 8
• Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/123 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 39 + Greens 16 = 55/123 – seven fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 8 + Maori 1 = 9/123

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

• John Key 40.0% (-4.0%)
• Andrew Little 8.0% (-1.0%)
• Winston Peters 7.0% (-2.0%)

Economic Outlook

• Better 36% (-9%)
• Worse 41% (+10%)
• Same 24% (nc)

Genetic Modification

• 44% support law change to allow NZ businesses to use some form of GM organisms
• 49% oppose

Refugees

• 53% support increasing quote from 750 to 1,000
• 44% opposed

Organ donation compensation

• 67% say organ donors should get compensation similar to ACC
• 22% say organ donors should get the sickness benefit

Euthanasia

• 75% support a terminally ill person being able to have a medical practitioner assist them to end their lives
• 21% opposed

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: 21 to 27 May 2015

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

• National 46.4% (-3.4%)
• Labour 30.4% (+1.3%)
• Green 11.1% (+1.8%)
• ACT 0.5% (+0.1%)
• Maori 1.1%  (-0.2%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• Mana 0.0% (-0.6%)
• NZ First 8.1% (+1.3%)
• Conservative 1.9% (-0.8%)

Projected Seats

• National 57
• Labour 37
• Green 14
• ACT 1
• Maori 1
• United Future 1
• NZ First 10
• Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/121 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 37 + Greens 14 = 51/121 – 10 fewer than minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 10 + Maori 1 = 11/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

• John Key 39.4% (-4.6%)
• Andrew Little 11.6% (+1.8%)
• Winston Peters 11.2% (+3.6%)

John Key

• Went too far with ponytail pulling 52%
• Was just horsing about 42%

House Affordability

• 33% says Government is doing enough to keep prices under control
• 60% say not enough

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,003 respondents, of whom 833 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 13%

Dates:  23 May to 27 May 2015

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

• National 48.0% (-1%)
• Labour 31.0% (nc)
• Green 10.0% (+1.0%)
• ACT 0.1% (-0.4%)
• Maori 1.4% (+0.6%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• Mana 0.0% (-1.1%)
• NZ First 7.0% (nc)
• Conservative 2.3% (+0.8%)

Projected Seats

• National 59
• Labour 38
• Green 12
• ACT 1
• Maori 2
• United Future 1
• NZ First 9
• Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/122 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 38 + Greens 12 = 50/122 – 12 fewer than minimum needed to govern
• C – Maori 2 + NZ First 9 = 12/122

On this poll National could form a centre-right Government with either the Maori Party or NZ First. Labour could not form a Government.

Preferred PM

• John Key 44% (+2%)
• Andrew Little 9% (-2%)
• Winston Peters 9% (-1%)

2015 Budget

• 4% say made them better off
• 10% say worse off
• 72% no change

Property Tax Rules

• 14% say Govt’s changes to tax investment homes wold within two years go too far
• 28% say not far enough
• 50% say are about right