Archives: Preferred PM

NZ Herald Digipoll July 2011

July 31, 2011

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 11.2%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 666 had a party vote preference

Dates: 19 to 27 July 2011

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 52.3% (+1.1%)
  • Labour 33.1% (-3.0%)
  • Green 8.3% (+1.7%)
  • NZ First 0.9% (-0.3%)
  • Maori 2.0% (+0.3%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.4% (-0.5%)
  • Mana 0.6% (+0.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 64
  • Labour 41
  • Green 10
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 2
  • Mana 1
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Mana one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 64 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 67/124 – 5 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 41 + Greens 10 + Mana 1 = 52/124 -10 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 70.3% (-0.3%)
  • Goff 9.3% (-2.6%)
  • Peters 2.9% (-2.5%)
  • Clark 7.9% (+3.8%)

Direction

  • Right 57.5%
  • Wrong 33.8%
  • Unsure 8.7%

Capital Gains Tax

  • Strongly favour 16.5%
  • Moderately favour 21.4%
  • No opinion 22.8%
  • Moderately against 16%
  • Strongly against 21.5%
  • More likely to vote Labour 22.1%
  • Less likely to vote Labour 14.4%
  • No difference 61.3%
Asset Sales
  • Strongly favour 7.2%
  • Moderately favour 19.8%
  • No opinion 15.5%
  • Moderately against 22.1%
  • Strongly against 34.5%
Debt Repayment Preferences
  • CGT 43.1%
  • Asset part-sales 34.4%
SAS in Afghanistan
  • Remain beyond March 2012 23.1%
  • Withdraw as scheduled 63.3%

Maori

  • Too much say 42.2%
  • Too little say 13.2%
  • About the right amount 39.8%
Women paid less because they are women
  • Yes 54.2%
  • No 36.4%
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Fairfax Research International Poll July 2011

July 31, 2011

Polling Company: Research International

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,008, of whom 860 had a party preference

Dates: 21 to 25 July 2011

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 56.0%
  • Labour 29.0%
  • Green 6.4%
  • ACT 2.2%
  • Maori 1.2%
  • United Future <1%
  • Mana 0.2%
  • NZ First 2.0%

Projected Seats

  • National 71
  • Labour 36
  • Green 8
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, United Future and Mana one seat each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 71 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 75/121 – 12 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 8 + Mana 1= 45/121 -18 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 53%
  • Phil Goff 6.2%
  • Winston Peters 2.5%

Preferred Coalition Partners

  • Greens 25%
  • ACT 18%
  • Maori 11%
  • Labour 8.2%
  • National 5.5%
  • NZ First 2.7%
  • United Future 1.2%
  • Mana 0.2%
Best plan to fix the economy
  • National 49%
  • Labour 17%
  • Green 1.5%
  • ACT 1.8%
  • Maori 0.2%
  • Mana 0.2%
  • NZ First 0.4%
Issues important to voting decisions
  1. Health and education 90%
  2. Economy 84%
  3. Law & Order 83%
  4. Cost of living 83%
  5. Rebuilding Christchurch 75%
  6. Environment 72%
  7. Social Welfare 65%
  8. Superannuation/KiwiSaver 64%
  9. SOEs 60%
  10. Taxes 59%
  11. Immigration 47%
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One News Colmar Brunton Poll July 2011

July 21, 2011

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,008, of whom 860 had a party preference

Dates: 9 to 13 July 2011

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 53.0% (+1.0%)
  • Labour 27.0% (-7.0%)
  • Green 10.0% (+4.0%)
  • ACT 3.1% (+0.6%)
  • Maori 3.0% (+1.6%)
  • United Future 0.3% (nc)
  • Mana 0.5% (-0.4%)
  • NZ First 2.4% (+0.8%)

Projected Seats

  • National 66
  • Labour 33
  • Green 12
  • ACT 4
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, United Future and Mana one seat each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 66 + ACT 4 + United Future 1 = 71/121 – 10 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 12 + Mana 1= 46/121 -15 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 54% (+1%)
  • Phil Goff 9% (+1%)
  • Winston Peters 3% (+15)

Economic Outlook

  • Better 52% (+4%)
  • Worse 28% (-5%)
  • Same 20% (+1%)
Capital Gains Tax
  • Support 43%
  • Oppose 49%
  • Don’t Know 9%
Raise tax rate to 39% for those over $120,000
  • Support 42%
  • Oppose 54%
  • Don’t Know 5%
Most trusted party to manage economy
  • National 53%
  • Labour 24%
  • Greens 2%
  • ACT 1%
  • Don’t Know 13%
Best Finance Minister
  • Bill English 49%
  • David Cunliffe 29%
  • Don’t Know 23%
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3 News Reid Research Poll July 2011

July 11, 2011

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: assumed 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: assumed 01 July to 07 July 2011

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

  • National 55.1% (+2.1%)
  • Labour 29.9% (-2.9%)
  • Green 9.1% (+2.6%)
  • ACT 1.7% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 0.8%  (-0.8%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.2%)
  • Mana 0.7% (+0.2%)
  • NZ First 2.2% (-0.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 68
  • Labour 37
  • Green 11
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats, ACT  and United Future one each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 68 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 70/124 – 7 more than minimum 63 needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 11 + Mana 1 = 49/124 -14 less than minimum 63 needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 50.5% (+2.3%)
  • Clark 1.7% (-2.8%)
  • Goff 6.9% (-0.7%)
  • Peters 3.9% (-0.1%)

Leadership Approval

  • Key – 72.1% (+3.5%) doing well vs 13.9% (-3.1%) doing poorly – net positive is 58.2% (+6.6%)
  • Goff  – 24.3% (-3.4%) doing well vs 49.8% (+2.5%) doing poorly – net positive is -25.5% (-5.9%)

Leadership Characteristics – Positive

  • capable leader – Key by 48% (-3%)
  • good in a crisis – Key by 37% (-5%)
  • sound judgement – Key by 30% (-6%)
  • in touch with Maori – Goff by 3% (+6%)

Leadership Characteristics – Negative

  • more style than substance – Key by 18% (-1%)
  • talk down to people – Goff by 7% (-1%)
  • narrow minded – Goff by 10% (-4%)
  • inflexible – Goff by 10% (nc)

Rugby World Cup Predicted Winner

  • NZ 65%
  • Australia 9%
  • South Africa 7%
  • England 3%
  • France 1%
  • Don’t Care 5%
  • Don’t Know 10%

Christchurch Earthquake Recovery

  • Government done a good job – 72% agree, 21% disagree
  • Gerry Brownlee done a good job – 57% agree, 28% disagree
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NZ Herald Digipoll June 2011

July 3, 2011

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 750 respondents (3.5% maximum margin of error)

Dates: assumed 22 to 28 June 2011

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald and NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 51.2% (-3.2%)
  • Labour 36.1% (+2.4%)
  • Green 6.6% (+1.1%)
  • NZ First 1.2% (-1.5%)
  • Maori 1.7% (+0.2%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.9% (+0.2%)
  • Mana 0.5% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 63
  • Labour 44
  • Green 8
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 2
  • Mana 1
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Mana one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 63 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 66/124 – 4 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 44 + Greens 8 + Mana 1 = 53/124 -9 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 70.6% (+2.9%)
  • Goff
  • Peters
  • Clark

Drinking Age

  • 58.6% want a 20/20 age for on and off-licenses
  • 25.7% want an 18 age for on-licenses and 20 for off-licenses
  • 14.5% want an 18/18 age for on and off-licenses
  • 80% support making it an offence to supply alcohol to an under 18 year old without the consent of their parents, with 18.5% against

Rugby World Cup

  • 59.2% say most important thing is visitors have a great time in NZ
  • 36.6% say most important thing is the All Blacks win
Welfare
  • 10% support sole parents on welfare having to seek work when youngest child is three
  • 32% support work testing at age five
  • 54% support work testing at age six
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3 News Reid Research Poll May 2011

May 29, 2011

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 20 May to 26 May 2011

Client: 3 News

Report:

Party Support

  • National 53.0% (-4.5%)
  • Labour 32.8% (+5.7%)
  • Green 6.5% (-1.2%)
  • ACT 2.2% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 1.6%  (-0.9%)
  • United Future 0.2%
  • Mana 0.5%
  • NZ First 2.4% (-0.4%)

Projected Seats

  • National 65
  • Labour 41
  • Green 8
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats, ACT  and United Future one each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 65 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 69/123 – 7 more than minimum 63 needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 41 + Greens 8 + Mana 1 = 50/123 -12 less than minimum 63 needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 48.2% (-4.2%)
  • Clark 4.5% (+2.0%)
  • Goff 7.6% (+0.8%)
  • Peters 4.0% (-0.4%)

Leadership Approval

  • Key – 68.6% (-7.2%) doing well vs 17.0% (+4.1%) doing poorly – net positive is 51.6% (-11.3%)
  • Goff  – 27.7% (+1.0%) doing well vs 47.3% (-2.0%) doing poorly – net positive is -19.6% (-3.0%)

Leadership Characteristics – Positive

  • honest – Key by 22% (-3%)
  • down to earth – Key by 15% (-3%)
  • understands econ problems – Key by 19% (-6%)
  • has personality – Key by 54% (+4%)
  • in touch with Maori – Key by 3% (-3%)

Leadership Characteristics – Negative

  • inexperienced – Key by 3% (+1%)
  • out of touch – Key by 8% (+2%)

KiwiSaver

  • 43% support changes to KiwiSaver
  • 42% against KiwiSaver change
  • 87% of people in KiwiSaver will remain, but 13% want to exit
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Herald Digipoll May 2011

May 29, 2011

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 750 respondents (3.5% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 19 to 25 May 2011

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald and NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 54.4% (+2.0%)
  • Labour 33.7% (-3.5%)
  • Green 5.5% (+0.2%)
  • NZ First 2.7% (+0.2%)
  • Maori 1.5% (+0.3%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.7% (+0.8%)
  • Mana 0.0%

Projected Seats

  • National 67
  • Labour 42
  • Green 7
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 2
  • Mana 1
  • Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Mana one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 67 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 70/124 – 7 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 42 + Greens 7 + Mana 1 = 50/124 -13 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 67.1% (+14.6%)
  • Goff 11.9% (+4.2%)
  • Peters 5.4% (+2.1%)
  • Clark 4.1% (-1.5%)

Leader Ratings

  • Phil Goff – 22.2% above average, 40.4% average, 33.05 below average

KiwiSaver

  • 40.0% approved of changes to KiwiSaver in Budget
  • 48..3% disapprove

Financial situation

  • 9.2% say their financial situation has improved
  • 50.1% say their financial situation is much the same

Asset Sales

  • 29.5% approved of partial SOE sales to raise $7b
  • 62.4% disapprove

Minor Parties

  • 11% believe a Don Brash-led Act Party in coalition with National would leave New Zealand better off
  • 47.3% believe a Don Brash-led Act Party in coalition with National would leave New Zealand worse off
  • 60% say Maori Party is a positive force for Maori voters

Superannuation

  • 52.3% think the age of eligibility for superannuation should be discussed now
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TV3 Poll early October 2010

October 16, 2010

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, of whom 863 have a party preference, (3.5% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 27 September to 06 October 2010

Client: TV3

Report:

Party Support

  • National 53.8% (-0.7%)
  • Labour 32.6% (+2.0%)
  • Green 7.6% (-0.9%)
  • ACT 0.9% (-1.3%)
  • Maori 2.4%  (+0.9%)
  • United Future 0.3% (+0.1%)
  • Progressive 0.1% (+0.1%)
  • NZ First 1.2% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 67
  • Labour 40
  • Green 9
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 0
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats, ACT  and United Future one each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 67 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 69/123 – 7 more than minimum 63 needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 40 + Greens 9 = 49/124 -13 less than minimum 63 needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 50.6% (+1.9%)
  • Clark 3.7% (+1.4%)
  • Goff 8.8% (+1.4%)
  • Peters 3.4% (-0.3%)

Leadership Approval

  • Key – 75.9% (+6.0%) doing well vs 11.9% (-4.0%) doing poorly – net positive is 64.0% (+10.0%%)
  • Goff  – 34.2% (+3.3%) doing well vs 41.9% (-2.0%) doing poorly – net positive is -7.7% (+5.3%)

Leadership Characteristics – Positive

  • honest – Key by 18% (-2%)
  • down to earth – Key by 13% (+1%)
  • understands econ problems – Key by 26% (+3%)
  • has personality – Key by 46% (nc)
  • in touch with Maori – Key by 3% (-2%)

Leadership Characteristics – Negative

  • inexperienced – Key by 3% (-10%)
  • out of touch – Key by 0% (-4%)

Auckland Mayoralty (500 sample)

  • 56% Brown
  • 34% Banks
Rodney Hide
  • 23% say he should stay as ACT leader
  • 35% say he should step down
  • 36% say he should resign from Parliament

Act Leadership

  • 30% want Heather Roy (of those who did not say Hide should stay)
  • 17% Roger Douglas
  • 11% John Boscawen
  • 42% None

 

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One News Colmar Brunton Poll September 2010

September 27, 2010

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: Around 1,000

Dates: Estimated 18 September to 23 September 2010

Client: One News

Report: TVNZ

Party Support

  • National 54.0% (+5.0%)
  • Labour 32.0% (-3.0%)
  • Green 8.0% (+1.0%)
  • ACT 1.1% (-1.6%)
  • Maori 2.3% (nc)
  • United Future
  • Progressive
  • NZ First 2.4% (+0.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 67
  • Labour 39
  • Green 10
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 0
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats, ACT, United Future one seat each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 67 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 69/123 – 7 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 39 + Greens 10 = 49/123 -13 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 52% (+7%)
  • Phil Goff 8% (-1%)
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One News Colmar Brunton Poll August 2010

August 16, 2010

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,011 adults, 864 of whom had a party vote preference

Dates: 31 July to 04 August 2010

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 49.0% (nc)
  • Labour 35.0% (+2.0%)
  • Green 7.0% (nc)
  • ACT 2.7% (+1.1%)
  • Maori 2.3% (-1.3%)
  • United Future 0.4% (-0.1%)
    Progressive 0.1% (-0.4%)
  • NZ First 2.3% (+1.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 61
  • Labour 44
  • Green 9
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 0
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats, ACT, United Future one seat each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 61 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 65/121 – 3 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 44 + Greens 9 = 53/121 -9 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Economic Outlook

  • 55% economy over next 12 months will be better (-1.0%)
  • 19% same (+1.0%)
  • 25% worse (-1.0%)
Preferred PM
  • John Key 45% (-1.0%)
  • Phil Goff 9% (+3%)
  • Helen Clark 3% (nc)
Drink Drive Limit
  • 64% say Govt should have lowered to 0.05
  • 34% say should not have lowered
Extending 90 day trial periods
  • 60% support extending to all employers
  • 36% opposed
Chris Carter
  • 58% say he should resign from Parliament
  • 33% say he should not

Phil Goff

  • 24% say he can win the next election
  • 65% say he can not, including 39% of Labour voters
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 35.2% 44
Labour 29.7% 37
Act 9.6% 12
Green 10.8% 14
NZ First 7.4% 9
Maori 3.1% 6
CR 51.2% 65
CL 44.1% 57
Total 97.9% 122
14/10/24
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