Marae Digipoll have done a poll of 1,000 Maori votes. 655 were from the Maori roll and 345 from the general roll.
The margin of errors are 3.2%, 3.9% and 5.4% respectively. The average no of respondents per Maori electorate is 94 which has a margin of error of 10.4%.
Party Vote – All Maori voters
- Labour 38.4%
- Maori 22.2%
- National 16.4%
- Mana 8.5%
- Green 6.5%
- NZ First 5.1%
- ACT 1.0%
Party Vote – General roll Maori voters
- Labour 43.5%
- Maori 11.7%
- National 22.4%
- Mana 1.6%
- Green 8.1%
- NZ First 7.1%
- ACT 2.9%
Party Vote – Maori roll Maori voters (2008 result in brackets)
- Labour 35.7% (50.1%)
- Maori 27.7% (28.9%)
- National 13.2% (7.4%)
- Mana 12.0%
- Green 5.6% (3.9%)
- NZ First 4.1% (6.1%)
- ACT 0.0% (0.5%)
Electorate Vote (all 7 electorates)
- Maori 37.5%
- Labour 35.1%
- Mana 13.8%
- National 5.6%
- Green 2.5%
- NZ First 2.5%
Te Tai Tokerau
- Labour 30.2%
- Mana 28.6%
- Maori 22.2%
Tamaki Makaurau
- Maori 46.1%
- Labour 30.4%
- Mana 15.7%
Waiariki
- Maori 59.3%
- Mana 18.7%
- Labour 8.8%
Te Tai Tonga
- Labour 41.4%%
- Maori 34.5%
- Mana 3.4%
Tainui
- Labour 58.8%%
- Maori 12.9%
- Mana 17.6%
Te Tai Hauauru
- Labour 40.3%%
- Maori 48.6%%
- Mana 1.4%
Ikaroa Rawhiti
- Labour 40.5%%
- Maori 31.6%
- NZ First 10.1%
- Mana 8.9%
With the high margin of error, one can work out the probability that a candidate in the seat is actually in the lead. They are:
- Te Tai Tokerau – Labour ahead with 58% probability
- Tamaki Makaurau – Maori Party ahead with 96% probability
- Waiariki – Maori Party ahead with 100% probability
- Te Tai Tonga – Labour ahead with 78% probability
- Tainui – Labour ahead with 1005 probability
- Te Tai Hauauru – Maori Party ahead with 80% probability
- Ikaroa Rawhiti – Labour ahead with 85% probability
Has Maori Party represented Maori well?
Support Maori Party decision to vote for Marine and Coastal Area Bill?
Accept Maori Party position that compromise worthwhile to ensure seat at Cabinet table?
Agree with Harawira that Maori Party lacks energy and candidates too old?
Should Shane Jones take over from Phil Goff as Labour Leader?
Has traditional voter support for Labour dropped?
Can Hone Harawira effectively lead Mana Party?
Which Maori MP best represents views of Maori?
- Pita Sharples 22%
- Tariana Turia 20%
- Hone Harawira 11%
- Winston Peters 3.8%
- Shane Jones 3.6%
Preferred PM
- John Key 33%
- Pita Sharples 7%
- Tariana Turia 4.8%
- Phil Goff 4.4%
- Hone Harawira 3.9%
- Winston Peters 3.7%
- Shane Jones 2.8%
