Archives: Preferred PM

Newshub Reid Research poll May 2018

June 18, 2018

Polling Company: Reid Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone 750 and Internet Panel 250

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates:  17 to 24 May 2018

Client: Newshub

Report: Reid Research

Party Support

  • National 45.1% (+0.6%)
  • Labour 42.6% (+0.3%)
  • Green 5.7% (-0.3%)
  • NZ First 2.4% (-1.4%)
  • Maori 0.9% (+0.1%)
  • ACT 0.2% (nc)
  • Opportunities 1.6% (+0.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 58
  • Labour 55
  • Green 8
  • ACT 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 58 + ACT 1 = 59/122 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 55 + Greens 8 = 63/122 – one more than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0  = 0/122

On this poll there would be a Labour/Green Government

Preferred PM

  • Simon Bridges 9.0% (+8.5%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 40.2% (+2.3%)
  • Winston Peters 4.6% (-1.1%)
  • Judith Collins 3.7% (+3.5%)

Leader Ratings

  • Simon Bridges – +11.9%
  • Jacinda Ardern – +54.8%

Peters as Acting PM

  • do well 39%
  • not do well or unsure 60%

M Bovis

  • 44% support taxpayer funding cost of eradication
  • 44.5% do not support
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One News Colmar Brunton poll May 2018

June 18, 2018

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone – 50/50 landline and mobile

Poll Size: 1,007 voters of whom 839 have a party vote preference

Undecideds: 13%

Dates:  19 to 23 May 2018

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 45.0% (+1%)
  • Labour 43.0% (nc)
  • Green 5.0% (-1%)
  • NZ First 4.2% (-0.8%)
  • Maori 0.9% (-0.3%)
  • ACT 0.7% (+0.4%)
  • Opportunities 0.5% (+0.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 58
  • Labour 55
  • Green 6
  • ACT 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 120

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 58 + ACT 1 = 59/120 – two fewer the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 55 + Greens 6 = 61/120 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0= 0/120

On this poll there would be a Labour/Green Government

Preferred PM

  • Simon Bridges 12.0% (+2%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 41% (+4%)
  • Winston Peters 4% (-1%)
  • Judith Collins 2% (nc)
 Economic Outlook
  • Better 40% (+3%)
  • Same 25% (-4%)
  • Worse 35 (+1%)

Government’s management of Budget

  • Better than expected 9%
  • Same as expected 56%
  • Worse than expected 11%

Government management of M Bovis outbreak

  • Good 14%
  • Okay 42%
  • Poor 24%

Increase in fuel tax

  • Support 36%
  • Oppose 585

Winston Peters as Acting PM will do

  • Good job 32% (-2%)
  • Okay job 53% (+3%)
  • Bad job 11% (nc)
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One News Colmar Brunton poll April 2018

May 15, 2018

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone – 50/50 landline and mobile

Poll Size: 1,007 voters of whom 861 have a party vote preference

Undecideds: 12%

Dates:  7 to 11 April 2018

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 44.0% (+1%)
  • Labour 43.0% (-5%)
  • Green 6.0% (+1%)
  • NZ First 5.0% (+2.4%)
  • Maori 1.2% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 0.3% (-0.2%)
  • Opportunities 0.4% (-0.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 54
  • Labour 52
  • Green 8
  • ACT 1
  • NZ First 6
  • Total 121

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 54 + ACT 1 = 55/121 – six fewer the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 52 + Greens 8 = 60/121 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 6= 6/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power

Preferred PM

  • Simon Bridges 10.0% (+9%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 37% (-4%)
  • Winston Peters 5% (+1%)
 Economic Outlook
  • Better 37% (nc)
  • Same 29% (-1%)
  • Worse 34 (+1%)

PM’s management of recent events

  • Good 35%
  • Okay 50%
  • Bad 11%

Impact of parenthood on PM’s performance

  • Better 15%
  • Worse 18%
  • No difference 59%

Value in NZ remaining in the Commonwealth

  • Yes 80%
  • No 12%

Top priorities for Budget spending

  • Health 22%
  • Education 13%
  • Housing 10%
  • Public health 8%
  • Roads 7%
  • Poverty 6%
  • Mental Health 4%
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One News Colmar Brunton poll February 2018

March 19, 2018

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone – 50/50 landline and mobile

Poll Size: 1,007 voters of whom 822 have a party vote preference

Undecideds: 13%

Dates: 10 to 14 February 2018

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 43.0% (-3%)
  • Labour 48.0% (+9%)
  • Green 5.0% (-2%)
  • NZ First 2.6% (-2.4%)
  • Maori 0.7% (-0.2%)
  • ACT 0.5% (+0.4%)
  • Opportunities 0.6% (-0.6%)

Projected Seats

  • National 54
  • Labour 59
  • Green 6
  • ACT 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 120

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 54 + ACT 1 = 55/120 – six fewer the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 69 + Greens 6 = 65/120 – four more than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0= 0/121

On this poll there would be a Labour/Green Government.

Preferred PM

  • Bill English 20.0% (-8%) (taken partly after resignation announced)
  • Jacinda Ardern 41% (+4%)
  • Winston Peters 4% (-1%)
 Economic Outlook
  • Better 37% (+1%)
  • Same 30% (+2%)
  • Worse 33 (-3%)
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Newshub Reid Research poll January 2018

February 2, 2018

Polling Company: Reid Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone 750 and Internet Panel 250

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates:  18 to 28 January 2018

Client: Newshub

Report: Newshub

Party Support

  • National 44.5% (-1.3%)
  • Labour 42.3% (+5.0%)
  • Green 6.0% (-1.1%)
  • NZ First 3.8% (-3.3%)
  • Maori 0.8% (+0.4%)
  • ACT 0.2% (-0.4%)
  • Opportunities 1.4% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 55
  • Green 8
  • ACT 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 57 + ACT 1 = 58/121 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 55 + Greens 8 = 63/121 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0  = 0/121

On this poll there would be a Labour/Green Government

Preferred PM

  • Bill English 26.0% (-8.7%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 38.0% (+8.3%)

Leader Ratings

  • Bill English – 53.3% well and 24.2% poor = +28.9%
  • Jacinda Ardern – 70.9% well and 9.3% poor = +61.6%

PM’s pregnancy

  • positively affect her performance 34%
  • negatively 20%
  • No impact 39%
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One News Colmar Brunton poll December 2017

December 13, 2017

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone – 50/50 landline and mobile

Poll Size: 1,007 voters of whom 874 have a party vote preference

Undecideds: 10%

Dates: 29 November to 5 December 2017

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 46.0% (nc)
  • Labour 39.0% (+2%)
  • Green 7.0% (-1%)
  • NZ First 5.0% (+0.1%)
  • Maori 0.9% (+0.4%)
  • ACT 0.1% (-0.2%)
  • Opportunities 1.2% (-1.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 48
  • Green 9
  • ACT 1
  • NZ First 6
  • Total 121

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 57 + ACT 1 = 58/121 – three fewer the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 48 + Greens 9 = 57/121 – four fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 6= 6/121

On this poll there would be a NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • Bill English 28.0% (-9%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 37% (+6%)
  • Winston Peters 5% (-1%)

Government Direction

  • Right 51%
  • Wrong 26%
  • Unsure 23%
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Newshub Reid Research poll 21 September 2017

September 21, 2017

Polling Company: Reid Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone 750 and Internet Panel 250

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates:  13 to 20 September 2017

Client: Newshub

Report: Newshub

Party Support

  • National 45.8% (-1.5%)
  • Labour 37.3% (-0.5%)
  • Green 7.1% (+2.2%)
  • NZ First 7.1% (+1.1%)
  • Maori 0.4% (-0.7%)
  • ACT 0.6% (+0.1%)
  • Opportunities 0.9% (-0.7%)

Projected Seats

  • National 56
  • Labour 45
  • Green 9
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • NZ First 9
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats except Ohariu.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 56 + ACT 1 = 57/122 – six fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 45 + Greens 9 = 54/122 – eight fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 8 + Maori 2 = 10/122

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • Bill English 34.7% (+1.6%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 29.7% (-2.0%)
  • Winston Peters 7.1% (+0.2%)
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One News Colmar Brunton poll 20 September 2017

September 21, 2017

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,006 voters of whom approx 840 have a party vote preference

Undecideds: 13%

Dates: 16 September to 19 September 2017

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 46.0% (+6.0%)
  • Labour 37.0% (-7%)
  • Green 8.0% (+1%)
  • NZ First 4.9% (-1.1%)
  • Maori 0.5% (-0.4%)
  • ACT 0.3% (-0.3%)
  • Opportunities 2.3% (+0.7%)

Projected Seats

  • National 58
  • Labour 46
  • Green 9
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • NZ First 6
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats except Ohariu going to Labour.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 58 + ACT 1 = 59/121 – two fewer the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 46 + Greens 9 = 55/121 – six fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 6 + Maori 1 = 7/121

On this poll there would be a NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • Bill English 37.0% (+5%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 31% (-3%)
  • Winston Peters 6% (+1%)
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One News Colmar Brunton poll 13 September 2017

September 17, 2017

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,006 voters of whom 840 have a party vote preference

Undecideds: 14%

Dates: 9 September to 13 September 2017

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 40.0% (+1.0%)
  • Labour 44.0% (+1%)
  • Green 7.0% (+2%)
  • NZ First 6.0% (-3.0%)
  • Maori 0.9% (-1.1%)
  • ACT 0.6% (+0.5%)
  • Opportunities 1.6% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 48
  • Labour 55
  • Green 8
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 120

This is based on no change in electorate seats except Ohariu going to Labour.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 48 + ACT 1 = 49/120 – 12 fewer the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 55 + Greens 8 = 63/120 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 1 = 8/121

On this poll there would be a Labour/Green Government.

Preferred PM

  • Bill English 32.0% (+1%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 34% (-1%)
  • Winston Peters 5% (nc)
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Newshub Reid Research poll early September 2017

September 12, 2017

Polling Company: Reid Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone 750 and Internet Panel 250

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates:  6 to 11 September 2017

Client: Newshub

Report: Newshub

Party Support

  • National 47.3% (+4.0%)
  • Labour 37.8% (-1.6%)
  • Green 4.9% (-1.2%)
  • NZ First 6.0% (-0.6%)
  • Maori 1.1% (+0.1%)
  • ACT 0.5% (-0.1%)
  • Opportunities 1.6% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 61
  • Labour 49
  • Green 0
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • NZ First 8
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 61 + ACT 1 = 62/121 – one more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 49 + Greens 0 = 49/121 – 12 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 8 + Maori 2 = 10/121

On this poll National could govern alone.

Preferred PM

  • Bill English 33.1% (+3.0%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 31.7% (+1.8%)
  • Winston Peters 6.9% (nc)
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 34.5% 44
Labour 29.3% 37
Green 10.2% 13
Act 9.8% 12
NZ First 5.8% 7
TPM 5.9% 7
CR 50.2% 63
CL 45.3% 57
Total 96.3% 120
27/11/24
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