Archives: NZ Political Party Polls

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 873 of whom 816 have a party preference

Undecideds: 6.5%

Dates: early October to 23 October 2016

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

• National 48.0% (+6.5%)
• Labour 26.5% (-7.0%)
• Green 11.5% (-0.5%)
• NZ First 10.0% (+1.5%)
• Maori 1.5% (-0.5%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.5% (-0.5%)
• Mana/Internet 0.5% (+0.5%)
• Conservative 0.0% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

• National 59
• Labour 32
• Green 14
• ACT 1
• Maori 2
• United Future 1
• NZ First 12
• Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/121 – the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 32 + Greens 14 = 46/121 – 15 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 12 + Maori 2 = 14/121

On this poll National could govern with ACT and United Future.

Country Direction

• Right 55.5% (+3.5%)
• Wrong 29.0% (-6.0%)
• Can’t Say 15.5% (+2.5%)

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 864 of whom 812 have a party preference

Undecideds: 6.0%

Dates: early August to 18 September 2016

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

• National 41.5% (-4.5%)
• Labour 33.5% (+8.0%)
• Green 12.0% (-2.5%)
• NZ First 8.5% (-1.0%)
• Maori 2.0% (+0.5%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 1.0% (nc)
• Mana/Internet 0.0% (-0.5)
• Conservative 0.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

• National 51
• Labour 41
• Green 15
• ACT 1
• Maori 2
• United Future 1
• NZ First 10
• Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 51 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 53/121 – eight fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 41 + Greens 15 = 56/121 – five fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 10 + Maori 2 = 14/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

• Right 52.0% (-6.0%)
• Wrong 35.0% (+4.5%)
• Can’t Say 13.0% (+1.5%)

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,013 voters of whom 845 have a party preference

Undecideds: 13%

Dates: 03 September to 09 September 2016

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

• National 48.0% (nc)
• Labour 26.0% (-3%)
• Green 13.0% (+1.0%)
• NZ First 11.0% (+2.0%)
• Maori 1.8% (+1.1%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.5% (+0.2%)
• Mana 0.0% (nc)
• Conservative 0.3% (-0.4%)

Projected Seats

• National 58
• Labour 31
• Green 15
• ACT 1
• Maori 2
• United Future 1
• NZ First 13
• Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/121 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 31 + Greens 15 = 46/121 – 15 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 13 + Maori 2 = 15/122

On this poll National (plus ACT and United) could govern with the Maori Party.  Labour could govern with Greens, NZ First and Maori Party. The Maori Party would hold the effective balance of power.

Preferred PM

• John Key 38.0% (-1%)
• Andrew Little 10% (+3%)
• Winston Peters 11% (-1%)
• Jacinda Ardern 1.0% (nc)

Economy

• Better 45% (+3%)
• Worse 31% (-5%)

Immigration

• Fewer migrants 38% (+11% from April)
• Current numbers rights 44% (-7%)
• More migrants 13% (-5%)

Housing

• 53% say Government should take more action even if it reduces house values
• 31% say more should be done but only if house values do not shrink
• 11% say no more action needed

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 845 of whom 794 have a party preference

Undecideds: 6.0%

Dates: early August to 21 August 2016

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

• National 46.0% (-7.0%)
• Labour 25.5% (nc)
• Green 14.5% (+3.0%)
• NZ First 9.5% (+2.5%)
• Maori 1.5% (+1.0%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 1.0% (nc)
• Mana/Internet 0.5% (nc)
• Conservative 1.0% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

• National 56
• Labour 31
• Green 18
• ACT 1
• Maori 2
• United Future 1
• NZ First 12
• Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 56 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 58/121 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 31 + Greens 18 = 49/121 – 12 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 12 + Maori 2 = 14/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

• Right 58.0% (+0.5%)
• Wrong 30.5% (nc)
• Can’t Say 11.5% (-0.5%)

Polling Company: Reid Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates: 22 July to 3 August 2016

Client: Newshub

Report: Newshub

Party Support

• National 45.1% (-1.9%)
• Labour 32.7% (+1.4%)
• Green 11.5% (+0.4%)
• NZ First 8.1% (+0.3%)
• Maori 1.3% (+0.3%)
• United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
• ACT 0.2% (-0.2%)
• Mana 0.4% (+0.3%)
• Conservative 0.5% (-0.1%)

Projected Seats

• National 55
• Labour 39
• Green 14
• ACT 1
• Maori 2
• United Future 1
• NZ First 10
• Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 55 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 57/122 – five fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 39 + Greens 14 = 53/122 – nine fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 10 + Maori 2 = 12/122

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

• John Key 36.7% (nc)
• Andrew Little 10.5% (+1.6%)
• Winston Peters 10.9% (-1.2%)

Housing

• 22% (+2%) think Government is doing enough to control the housing market
• 75% (-1%)  do not
• 56% support Labour’s Kiwibuild (100,000 new houses in 10 years) policy
• 41% do not

Immigration

• 60% think the Government should let fewer immigrants in
• 37% do not

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 864 of whom 799 have a party preference

Undecideds: 7.5%

Dates: early July to 17 June 2016

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

• National 53.0% (+10.0%)
• Labour 25.5% (-2.5%)
• Green 11.5% (-3.0%)
• NZ First 7.0% (-2.0%)
• Maori 0.5% (-1.5%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 1.0% (+0.5%)
• Mana/Internet 0.5% (-0.5%)
• Conservative 0.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

• National 64
• Labour 31
• Green 14
• ACT 1
• Maori 1
• United Future 1
• NZ First 9
• Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 64 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 66/121 – five more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 31 + Greens 14 = 45/121 – 16 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 9 + Maori 1 = 10/121

On this poll National could govern alone.

Country Direction

• Right 57.5% (+3.0%)
• Wrong 30.5% (-3.5%)
• Can’t Say 12.0% (+0.5%)

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 868 of whom 820 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.5%

Dates: early June to 12 June 2016

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

• National 43.0% (-2.5%)
• Labour 28.0% (-1.5%)
• Green 14.5% (+2.5%)
• NZ First 9.0% (-0.5%)
• Maori 2.0% (+1.0%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.5% (-0.5%)
• Mana/Internet 1.0% (+1.0%)
• Conservative 1.0% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

• National 53
• Labour 35
• Green 18
• ACT 1
• Maori 2
• United Future 1
• NZ First 11
• Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 53 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 55/121 – six fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 35 + Greens 18 = 53/121 – eight fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 11 + Maori 2 = 13/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

• Right 54.5% (-4.5%)
• Wrong 34.0% (+5.0%)
• Can’t Say 11.5% (-0.5%)

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,509 voters of whom 1,245 have a party preference

Undecideds: 15%

Dates: 28 May to 2 June 2016

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

• National 48.0% (-2%)
• Labour 29.0% (+1%)
• Green 12.0% (+2.0%)
• NZ First 9.0% (nc)
• Maori 0.7% (-0.4)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.3% (-0.4%)
• Mana 0.0% (nc)
• Conservative 0.7% (+0.4%)

Projected Seats

• National 58
• Labour 35
• Green 15
• ACT 1
• Maori 1
• United Future 1
• NZ First 11
• Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/122 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 35 + Greens 15 = 50/122 – 12 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 11 + Maori 1 = 12/122

On this poll National could govern with NZ First or Labour could govern with Greens, NZ First and Maori Party.

Preferred PM

• John Key 39.0% (nc)
• Andrew Little 7% (nc)
• Winston Peters 12% (+2%)
• Jacinda Ardern 1.0% (-1%)

Polling Company: Reid Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates: May 2016

Client: Newshub

Report: Newshub

Party Support

• National 47.0% (+0.3%)
• Labour 31.3% (-1.0%)
• Green 11.1% (+0.9%)
• NZ First 7.8% (+0.3%)
• Maori 1.0% (-0.3%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.4% (-0.4%)
• Mana 0.0% (nc)
• Conservative 0.0% (-0.7%)

Projected Seats

• National 57
• Labour 38
• Green 14
• ACT 1
• Maori 1
• United Future 1
• NZ First 10
• Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/122 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 38 + Greens 14 = 52/122 – 10 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 10 + Maori 1 = 11/122

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

• John Key 36.7% (-1.6%)
• Andrew Little 8.9% (-1.5%)
• Winston Peters 12.1% (+2.8%)
• Jacinda Ardern 2.6% (-1.6%)

Housing

• 20% think Government is doing enough to control the housing market
• 76% do not
• 61% think foreign buyers are driving up house prices

US Ships

• 75% support a visit by a US Navy ship
• 20% opposed

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 870 of whom 822 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.5%

Dates: early May to 15 May 2016

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

• National 45.5% (+3.0%)
• Labour 29.5% (+3.5%)
• Green 12.0% (-2.5%)
• NZ First 9.5% (-3.0%)
• Maori 1.0% (-0.5%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 1.0% (-0.5%)
• Mana/Internet 0.0% (nc)
• Conservative 0.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

• National 55
• Labour 36
• Green 15
• ACT 1
• Maori 1
• United Future 1
• NZ First 12
• Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 55 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 57/121 – four fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 36 + Greens 15 = 51/121 – ten fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 12 + Maori 1 = 13/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

• Right 59.0% (+1.5%)
• Wrong 29.0% (-1.5%)
• Can’t Say 12.0% (nc)