Archives: NZ Political Party Polls

Roy Morgan poll April 2017

April 29, 2017

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 862 of whom 802 have a party preference

Undecideds: 7.0%

Dates: 01 April to 16 April 2017

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 43.0% (-0.5%)
  • Labour 29.5% (nc)
  • Green 13.0% (-1.5%)
  • NZ First 10.5% (+3.0%)
  • Maori 1.0% (-1.0%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 1.5% (+1.0%)
  • Mana/Internet 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • Conservative 0.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 52
  • Labour 36
  • Green 16
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 13
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 52 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 55/121 – six fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 16 = 52/121 – nine fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 13 + Maori 1 = 14/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 58.0 (-3.5%)
  • Wrong 29.0% (+3.5%)
  • Can’t Say 13.0% (nc)
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One News Colmar Brunton poll March 2017

March 28, 2017

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 voters

Undecideds:

Dates: 18 March to 22 March 2017

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 46.0% (nc)
  • Labour 30.0% (nc)
  • Green 11.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 8.0% (-3.0%)
  • Maori 4.0% (+3.3%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.3%)
  • ACT 0.4% (-0.4%)
  • Mana 0.2% (-0.6%)
  • Conservative 0.3% (+0.1%)
  • Opportunities 0.4% (+0.4%)

Projected Seats

  • National 56
  • Labour 36
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 9
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 56 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 58/122 – four fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 14 = 50/122 – 12 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 9 + Maori 5 = 14/122

On this poll the Maori Party would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • Bill English 26.0% (-5%)
  • Andrew Little 7% (nc)
  • Winston Peters 9% (+1%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 9% (+5%)

Economic Outlook

  • Better 46% (-2%)
  • Same 28% (-2%)
  • Worse 26% (+4%)

Superannuation

  • Support increase in eligibility age to 67 – 52%
  • Opposed 40%

Freedom Camping

  • 69% think more needs to be done to control behaviour of freedom campers
  • 23% disagree

Vaccinations

  • 48% support banning unvaccinated children from early childhood centres
  • 43% disagree
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Roy Morgan poll March 2017

March 26, 2017

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 847 of whom 783 have a party preference

Undecideds: 7.5%

Dates: 27 February to 12 March 2017

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 43.5% (-4.5%)
  • Labour 29.5% (+3.5%)
  • Green 14.5% (+1.5%)
  • NZ First 7.5% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 2.0% (nc)
  • United Future 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Mana/Internet 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • Conservative 0.5% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 53
  • Labour 36
  • Green 18
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 9
  • Total 120

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 53 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 55/120 – six fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 18 = 54/120 – seven fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 9 + Maori 2 = 11/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 61.5% (-2.0%)
  • Wrong 25.5% (+2.0%)
  • Can’t Say 13.0% (nc)
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Newshub Reid Research poll March 2017

March 21, 2017

Polling Company: Reid Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone 750 and Internet Panel 250

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates:  10 to 19 March 2017

Client: Newshub

Report: Newshub

Party Support

  • National 47.1% (+2.0%)
  • Labour 30.8% (-1.9%)
  • Green 11.2% (-0.3%)
  • NZ First 7.6% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 0.7% (-0.6%)
  • United Future 0.4% (+0.3%)
  • ACT 0.4% (+0.2%)
  • Mana 0.0% (-0.4%)
  • Conservative 0.4% (-0.1%)
  • Opportunities 0.8%

Projected Seats

  • National 58
  • Labour 38
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 9
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/122 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 14 = 52/122 – ten fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 9 + Maori 1 = 10/122

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • Bill English 25.0% (-11.7% from Key)
  • Andrew Little 8.3% (-2.2%)
  • Winston Peters 8.9% (-2.0%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 10.5%

Labour Leader

  • Andrew Little 46%
  • Jacinda Ardern 38%

Housing

  • Is Government doing enough to control housing market – yes 19%
  • No 19%

Immigration

  • 51% support a cut in immigration
  • 39% do not

Superannuation

  • 52% support increase in entitlement age to 67
  • 42% do not
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Roy Morgan poll February 2017

February 28, 2017

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 852 of whom 805 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.5%

Dates: 30 January to 12 February 2017

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 48.0% (+2.0%)
  • Labour 26.0% (-1.0%)
  • Green 13.0% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 8.0% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 2.0% (nc)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Mana/Internet 0.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 0.0% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 59
  • Labour 32
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 10
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/121 – the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 32 + Greens 16 = 48/121 – thirteen fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 10 + Maori 2 = 12/121

On this poll National would govern with ACT and United Future.

Country Direction

  • Right 63.5% (+0.5%)
  • Wrong 23.5% (+0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 13.0% (-1.0%)

Most Important Issues

  • Housing 26% (-1%)
  • Poverty 17% (+1%)
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One News Colmar Brunton poll February 2017

February 20, 2017

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,003 voters of whom 808 have a voting preference

Undecideds: 15%

Dates: 11 February to 15 February 2017

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 46.0% (-4%)
  • Labour 30.0% (+2%)
  • Green 11.0% (-2.0%)
  • NZ First 11.0% (+1.0%)
  • Maori 0.7% (-0.3%)
  • United Future 0.3% (+0.3%)
  • ACT 0.8% (+0.8%)
  • Mana 0.8% (+0.8)
  • Conservative 0.2% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 56
  • Labour 36
  • Green 13
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 13
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 56 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 58/121 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 13 = 49/121 – 12 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 13 + Maori 1 = 14/122

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • Bill English 31.0% (-5% from Key)
  • Andrew Little 7% (-1%)
  • Winston Peters 8% (nc)
  • Jacinda Ardern 4% (+3%)

Economic Outlook

  • Better 48% (+5%)
  • Worse 22% (-11%)
  • Same 30% (+6%)

Influential Issues

  • Housing 27%
  • Education 20%
  • Economy 16%
  • Health 15%
  • Environment 9%
  • Immigration 9%
  • Child Poverty 5%
  • Jobs 5%
  • Crime 4%

Most Important Issue

  • Housing 16%
  • Economy 11%
  • Health 8%
  • Education 7%
  • Immigration 6%
  • Environment 5%

Summer Holidays shift to February

  • Support 32%
  • Oppose 52%

Waitangi Day

  • Govt continue to attend at Waitangi 61%
  • Stop attending 31%
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Roy Morgan poll January 2017

February 3, 2017

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 868 of whom 812 have a party preference

Undecideds: 6.5%

Dates: 03 January to 16 January 2017

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 46.0% (+1.0%)
  • Labour 27.0% (-1.5%)
  • Green 12.5% (-2.0%)
  • NZ First 9.0% (+1.5%)
  • Maori 2.0% (+1.0)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • Conservative 0.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 33
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 11
  • Total 120

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/120 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 15 = 48/120 – thirteen fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 11 + Maori 2 = 13/120

On this poll National could govern with either the Maori Party or NZ First while Labour/Greens would need both NZ First and the Maori Party.

Country Direction

  • Right 63.0% (+4.5%)
  • Wrong 23.0% (-4.5%)
  • Can’t Say 14.0% (+3.0%)
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Roy Morgan poll December 2016

December 26, 2016

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 872 of whom 824 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.5%

Dates: 28 November to 11 December 2016

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 45.0% (-4.5%)
  • Labour 28.5% (+5.5%)
  • Green 14.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 7.5% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 1.0% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Mana/Internet 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • Conservative 0.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 55
  • Labour 35
  • Green 18
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 9
  • Total 120

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 55 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 57/120 – four fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 35 + Greens 18 = 53/120 – eight fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 9 + Maori 1 = 10/120

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power

Country Direction

  • Right 58.5% (-6.5%)
  • Wrong 27.5% (+3.5%)
  • Can’t Say 14.0% (+3.0%)
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Roy Morgan poll November 2016

December 1, 2016

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 858 of whom 802 have a party preference

Undecideds: 6.5%

Dates: early November to 20 November 2016

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 49.5% (+1.5%)
  • Labour 23.0% (-3.5%)
  • Green 14.5% (+3.0%)
  • NZ First 8.0% (-2.0%)
  • Maori 1.5% (nc)
  • United Future 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Mana/Internet 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • Conservative 0.5% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 28
  • Green 18
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 10
  • Total 120

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 60 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 62/121 – the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 28 + Greens 18 = 46/121 – 15 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 10 + Maori 2 = 14/121

On this poll National could govern with ACT and/or United Future.

Country Direction

  • Right 65.0% (+9.5%)
  • Wrong 24.0% (-5.0%)
  • Can’t Say 11.0% (-4.5%)
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One News Colmar Brunton poll November 2016

November 27, 2016

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,010 voters of whom 839 have a party preference

Undecideds: 16%

Dates: 12 November to 23 November 2016

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 50.0% (+2%)
  • Labour 28.0% (+2%)
  • Green 11.0% (-2.0%)
  • NZ First 10.0% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 1.0% (-0.8%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • Mana 0.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 0.2% (-0.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 34
  • Green 13
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 12
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 60 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 62/122 – the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 34 + Greens 13 = 47/122 – 15 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 12 + Maori 1 = 13/122

On this poll National could govern with ACT and United Future.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 36.0% (-2%)
  • Andrew Little 8% (-2%)
  • Winston Peters 8% (-3%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 1.0% (nc)

Economic Outlook

  • Better 43% (-2%)
  • Same 24% (nc)
  • Worse 33% (+2%)

Foreign property tax

  • Support a 15% tax on foreign house buyers in Auckland 75%
  • Oppose 18%

Plastic bag levy

  • Support a 15c per bag levy 78%
  • Oppose 19%

Surplus 2016

  • Increase spending 48%
  • Reduce debt 31%
  • Reduce taxes 17%
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 34.5% 44
Labour 29.3% 37
Green 10.2% 13
Act 9.8% 12
NZ First 5.8% 7
TPM 5.9% 7
CR 50.2% 63
CL 45.3% 57
Total 96.3% 120
27/11/24
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