Archives: NZ Political Party Polls

Roy Morgan Poll mid October 2009

October 26, 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 951 (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 05 October to 18 October 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 53.0% (-4.5%)
  • Labour 30.0% (+2.0%)
  • Green 7.5% (+1.0%)
  • ACT 2.5% (+1.0%)
  • Maori 3.0% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Progressive 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 2.5% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 65
  • Labour 37
  • Green 9
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 65 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 69/121 – 8 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Progressive 1 + Greens 9 = 47/121 – 14 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 67.5% (-4.5%)
  • Wrong 21.5% (+5.0%)
  • Can’t Say 11.0% (-0.5%)
Leave a comment

TV3 Reid Research Poll October 2009

October 18, 2009

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, of whom 917 have a party preference, (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 06 October to 14 October 2009

Client: TV3

Report: TV3

Party Support

  • National 59.9% (+1.8%)
  • Labour 27.2% (-2.0%)
  • Green 6.9% (-0.6%)
  • ACT 1.7% (+0.3%)
  • Maori 2.4%  (+1.2%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.2%)
  • Progressive 0.3% (+0.3%)
  • NZ First 1.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 74
  • Labour 33
  • Green 8
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 74 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 77/124 – 14 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Progressive 1 + Greens 8 = 42/124 -21 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 55.8% (+4.3%)
  • Clark 8.2% (+0.2%)
  • Goff 4.7% 6.5% (-1.8%)
  • Peters 3.0%

Leadership Approval

  • Key – 82.3% (+3.7%) doing well vs 7.2% (-2.0%) doing poorly – net positive is 75.1% (=5.1%)
  • Goff  – 34.2% (-0.2%) doing well vs 37.9% (-3.7%) doing poorly – net positive is -3.7% (+3.5%)

Leadership Characteristics – Positive

  • capable leader – Key by 40% (+8%)
  • good in a crisis – Key by 29% (+5%)
  • sound judgement – Key by 28% (+8%)
  • honest – Key by 29% (+16%)
  • down to earth – Key by 18% (+9%)
  • understands economic problems – Key by 30% (+8%)
  • has a lot of personality – Key by 46% (+19%)
  • in touch with Maori – Key by 6% (+4%)

Leadership Characteristics – Negative

  • more style than substance – Key by 8% (-2%)
  • talk down to people – Goff by 7% (-4%)
  • narrow minded – Goff by 10% (-2%)
  • inflexible – Goff by 9% (-2%)
  • inexperienced – Key by 19% (-3%)
  • out of touch  – Goff by 7% (+4%)

Economy

  • 54% said impact of recession has been what they expected
  • 30% say it was better than expected
  • 14% worse than expected
  • 2% don’t know
Leave a comment

Roy Morgan Poll early October 2009

October 12, 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 854 (3.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 21 September to 04 October 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 57.5% (+6.0%)
  • Labour 28.0% (-5.5%)
  • Green 6.5% (-1.0%)
  • ACT 1.5% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 2.5% (nc)
  • United Future 1.0% (+1.0%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • NZ First 2.0% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 71
  • Labour 35
  • Green 8
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 71 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 74/123 – 12 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 35 + Progressive 1 + Greens 8 = 44/123 – 18 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 72.0% (+4.5%)
  • Wrong 16.5% (-8.0%)
  • Can’t Say 11.5% (+3.5%)
Leave a comment

One News Colmar Brunton Poll September 2009

October 1, 2009

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 adults, of whom 837 are decided

Dates: 19 September to 24 September 2009

Client: One News

Report:

Party Support

  • National 54.0% (-2.0%)
  • Labour 33.0% (+2.0%)
  • Green 4.3% (-2.7%)
  • ACT 3.2% (+2.2%)
  • Maori 2.7% (-0.4%)
  • United Future 0.2% (+0.1%)
  • Progressive 0.4% (-0.1%)
  • NZ First 1.7% (+0.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 70
  • Labour 42
  • Green 0
  • ACT 4
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 70 + ACT 4 + United Future 1 = 75/123 – 13 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 42 + Progressive 1 + Greens 0 = 43/123 -19 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Economic Outlook

  • 70% economy over next 12 months will be better (+10.0%)
  • 16% same (-2.0%)
  • 13% worse (-9.0%)
Preferred PM
  • John Key 50% (-1.0%)
  • Phil Goff 9% (+2%)
  • Helen Clark 4% (+1%)
Leave a comment

Roy Morgan Poll early September 2009

September 19, 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 854 (3.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 31 August to 13 September 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 51.5% (-5.0%)
  • Labour 33.5% (+4.0%)
  • Green 7.5% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 2.0% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 2.5% (+1.0%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • Progressive 0.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 2.5% (+1.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 64
  • Labour 41
  • Green 9
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 64 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 67/123 – 5 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 41 + Progressive 1 + Greens 9 = 51/123 -11 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 67.5% (+2.0%)
  • Wrong 24.5% (+2.5%)
  • Can’t Say 8.0% (-4.5%)
Leave a comment

Roy Morgan late August 2009

September 14, 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 860 (3.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 17 August to 30 August 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 56.5% (+3.0%)
  • Labour 29.5% (-3.0%)
  • Green 8.0% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 1.5% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 1.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 68
  • Labour 36
  • Green 10
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 68 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 71/123 – 9 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Progressive 1 + Greens 10 = 47/123 -15 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 65.5% (-1.0%)
  • Wrong 22.0% (+0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 12.5% (+0.5%)
Leave a comment

Roy Morgan mid August 2009

August 24, 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 816 (3.5% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 3 August to 16 August 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 53.5% (nc)
  • Labour 32.5% (-1.5%)
  • Green 8.5% (+1.5%)
  • ACT 1.0% (-1.5%)
  • Maori 2.0% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 2.0% (+1.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 66
  • Labour 40
  • Green 10
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 66 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 68/124 – 5 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 40 + Progressive 1 + Greens 10 = 51/124 -12 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 66.5% (+0.5%)
  • Wrong 21.5% (+3.0%)
  • Can’t Say 12.0% (-3.5%)
Leave a comment

TV3 Poll August 2009

August 16, 2009

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: estimated 08 April to 13 April 2009

Client: TV3

Report: TV3

Party Support

  • National 58.1% (+2.1%)
  • Labour 29.2% (-0.8%)
  • Green 7.5% (+1.4%)
  • ACT 1.4% (-0.7%)
  • Maori 1.2% (-1.7%)
  • United Future 0.2% (+0.1%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (-0.3%)
  • NZ First 1.0% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 72
  • Labour 36
  • Green 9
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 126

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 72 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 75/126 – 11 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Progressive 1 + Greens 9 = 46/126 -18 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 51.5% (+0.4%)
  • Clark 8.0% (-3.5%)
  • Goff 6.5% (-2.6%)
Leave a comment

Roy Morgan Poll late July 2009

August 16, 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 834 (3.5% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 20 July to 2 August 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 53.5% (+1.5%)
  • Labour 34.0% (+4.0%)
  • Green 7.0% (-3.0%)
  • ACT 2.5% (+1.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (-2.0%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 1.0% (-1.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 65
  • Labour 41
  • Green 8
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 65 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 69/124 – 6 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 41 + Progressive 1 + Greens 8 = 50/124 -13 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 66.0% (-0.5%)
  • Wrong 18.5% (-2.0%)
  • Can’t Say 15.5% (+2.5%)
Leave a comment

One News Colmar Brunton Poll July 2009

August 2, 2009

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,001 adults, of whom 850 are decided

Dates: 25 July to 29 July 2009

Client: One News

Report:

Party Support

  • National 56.0% (-1.0%)
  • Labour 31.0% (nc)
  • Green 7.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 3.1% (+0.9%)
  • United Future not reported yet
  • Progressive not reported yet
  • NZ First 1.6%

Projected Seats

  • National 69
  • Labour 37
  • Green 8
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 69 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 71/122 – 9 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Progressive 1 + Greens 8 = 46/122 -16 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Economic Outlook

  • 60% economy over next 12 months will be better (+18.0%)
  • 18% same (-1.0%)
  • 22% worse (-17.0%)
Preferred PM
  • John Key 51% (nc)
  • Phil Goff 7% (+1%)
  • Helen Clark 3% (-6%)
Leave a comment
« Later posts
Earlier posts »

Curia's blog specialises in polls and polling, with a mainly New Zealand focus. More

Never miss a poll: Subscribe via email

Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 33.8% 42
Labour 31.2% 39
Green 9.8% 12
Act 9.3% 12
NZ First 7.0% 9
TPM 4.4% 6
CR 50.1% 63
CL 45.3% 57
7/04/25
Embed | Methodology

Explore the Archives

By date

By company

By issue

Get our paywalled newsletter on polling insights Subscribe

Get Curia's blog posts
via email