Archives: NZ Political Party Polls

Roy Morgan Poll early April 2012

April 20, 2012

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 928, of whom 900 have a party preference

Undecideds: 3.0%

Dates: 02 April 2012 to 15 April 2012

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 49.5% (+5.5%)
  • Labour 26.5% (-4.0%)
  • Green 12.5% (-4.5%)
  • NZ First 6.5% (+1.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (nc)
  • United Future 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • Mana 1.0% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 61
  • Labour 32
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 8
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 61 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 63/122 – 1 more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 32 + Greens 15 + NZ First 8 + Mana 1 = 56/122 – 6 greater than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 55.5% (+2.0%)
  • Wrong 31.0% (+1.5%)
  • Can’t Say 13.5% (-3.5%)
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Roy Morgan Poll late March 2012

April 7, 2012

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 948, of whom 915 have a party preference

Undecideds: 3.5%

Dates: 12 March 2012 to 1 April 2012

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 44.0% (-4.5%)
  • Labour 30.5% (+0.5%)
  • Green 17.0% (+4.5%)
  • NZ First 5.0% (nc)
  • Maori 1.5% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • Mana 0.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 53
  • Labour 36
  • Green 20
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 6
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 53 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 55/122 – 6 less than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 20 + NZ First 6 + Mana 1 = 63/122 – 2 greater than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 53.5% (+1.0%)
  • Wrong 29.5% (-4.5%)
  • Can’t Say 17.0% (+3.5%)
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Roy Morgan Poll early March 2012

March 16, 2012

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 904, of whom 868 have a party preference

Undecideds: 4.0%

Dates: 27 February 2012 to 11 March 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 48.5% (+3.0%)
  • Labour 30.0% (-1.5%)
  • Green 12.5% (-0.5%)
  • NZ First 5.0% (nc)
  • Maori 1.0% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • Mana 0.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 59
  • Labour 36
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 6
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/122 – 1 less than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 15 + NZ First 6 + Mana 1 = 58/122 – 4 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 52.5% (-1.0%)
  • Wrong 34.0% (+1.5%)
  • Can’t Say 13.5% (-0.5%)
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Roy Morgan poll 24 November 2011

November 25, 2011

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 959, of whom 921 have a party preference

Undecideds: 4.0%

Dates: 22 to 24 November 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 49.5% (-3.5%)
  • Labour 23.5% (-1.0%)
  • Green 14.5% (+1.5%)
  • ACT 1.5% (nc)
  • Maori 1.0% (-2.0%)
  • United Future 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 6.5% (+3.5%)
  • Mana 0.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 29
  • Green 18
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 8
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, Mana and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram.Tonga.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 60 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 63/123 – 1 more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 29 + Greens 18 + NZ First 8 + Mana 1 = 57/122 – 5 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 49.5% (-11.0%)
  • Wrong 31.0% (+7.0%)
  • Can’t Say 19.5% (+4.0%)
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NZ Herald Digipoll 25 November 2011

November 25, 2011

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 7.7%

Poll Size: 850 respondents, of whom 785 had a party vote preference

Dates: 17 to 23 November 2011

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 50.9% (+1.0%)
  • Labour 28.0% (-1.1%)
  • Green 11.8% (-0.8%)
  • NZ First 5.2% (+0.3%)
  • Maori 0.4% (-0.3%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-01.%)
  • ACT 1.8% (+0.1%)
  • Mana 0.3% (-0.1%)
  • Conservative 1.3% (+0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 63
  • Labour 34
  • Green 15
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 2
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 6
  • Total 126

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Mana one each with Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 63 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 66/126 – 2 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 34 + Greens 15 + NZ First 6 + Mana 1 = 56/126 -8 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 66.3% (-2.2%)
  • Goff 19.5% (+1.6%)
  • Peters 4.3% (+0.6%)
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3 News Reid Research Poll 24 Nov 2011

November 24, 2011

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: assumed 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds: 12%

Dates: assumed 19 November to 23 November 2011

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

  • National 50.8% (+0.6%)
  • Labour 26.0% (-1.4%)
  • Green 13.4% (+0.4%)
  • ACT 1.0% (+0.3%)
  • Maori 1.5%  (+0.2%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • Mana 1.1% (+0.1%)
  • NZ First 3.1% (-0.4%)
  • Conservative 1.8% (+0.7%)

Projected Seats

  • National 65
  • Labour 34
  • Green 17
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, Mana, ACT and United Future one each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 65 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 67/123 – 5 more than minimum 62 needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 34 + Greens 17 + Mana 1 = 52/123 -10 less than minimum 62 needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 49.0% (nc)
  • Goff 12.0% (+2.0%)
  • Peters 4.0% (nc)
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One News Colmar Brunton Poll 24 Nov 2011

November 24, 2011

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds:

Dates: 19 November to 23 November 2011

Client: One News

Report: One News

Party Support

  • National 50.0% (-3.0%)
  • Labour 28.0% (+2.0%)
  • Green 10.0% (-3.0%)
  • ACT 1.7% (+0.1%)
  • Maori 2.0% (+0.4%)
  • United Future 0.1% (-0.2%)
  • Mana 1.0% (-0.3%)
  • NZ First 4.2% (+2.0%)
  • Conservative 2.4% (+1.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 65
  • Labour 36
  • Green 13
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Conservative 0
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, United Future and Mana one seat each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 65 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 68/122 – 6 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 13 + Mana 1= 50/122 -12 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 52% (-1%)
  • Phil Goff 15% (+2%)
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One News Colmar Brunton Poll 17 November 2011

November 20, 2011

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,006

Undecideds:

Dates: 12 November to 16 November 2011

Client: One News

Report: One News

Party Support

  • National 53.0% (-1.0%)
  • Labour 26.0% (-2.0%)
  • Green 13.0% (+4.0%)
  • ACT 1.6% (+0.1%)
  • Maori 1.6% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.3% (-0.5%)
  • Mana 1.3% (+1.1%)
  • NZ First 2.2% (-0.7%)
  • Conservative 1.4% (+0.9%)

Projected Seats

  • National 66
  • Labour 32
  • Green 16
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 2
  • NZ First 0
  • Conservative 0
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning three electorate seats, ACT, United Future and Mana one seat each and Labour winning Wigram and Te Tai Tonga.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 66 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 69/122 – 7 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 32 + Greens 16 + Mana 2= 50/122 -12 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 53% (-2%)
  • Phil Goff 13% (-1%)
  • Winston Peters 3%
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3 News Reid Research Poll 13 November 2011

November 13, 2011

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: assumed 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: assumed 3 November to 10 November 2011

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

  • National 53.3% (+1.0%)
  • Labour 29.9% (-0.3%)
  • Green 10.2% (+0.8%)
  • ACT 0.7% (-0.8%)
  • Maori 1.4%  (nc)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • Mana 1.0% (+0.1%)
  • NZ First 2.4% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 66
  • Labour 37
  • Green 13
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning three electorate seats, Mana, ACT and United Future one each and Labour winning Wigram and Te Tai Tonga.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 66 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 68/122 – 6 more than minimum 62 needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 13 + Mana 1 = 51/122 -11 less than minimum 62 needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 50.0% (-2.7%)
  • Goff 12.4% (+2.6%)

Leadership Approval

  • Key – 68.9% (-2.2%) doing well vs 17.2% (-0.7%) doing poorly – net positive is 51.7% (-1.5%)
  • Goff  – 34.6% (+6.2%) doing well vs 44.8% (-9.4%) doing poorly – net positive is -10.2% (+15.6%)
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Roy Morgan early November 2011

November 11, 2011

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 911, of whom 847 have a party preference

Undecideds: 7.0%

Dates: 24 October to 06 November 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 53.0% (-0.5%)
  • Labour 26.0% (-3.5%)
  • Green 12.0% (+2.5%)
  • ACT 1.0% (nc)
  • Maori 2.0% (nc)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 4.5% (+2.0%)
  • Mana 1.0% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 67
  • Labour 33
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning three electorate seats, ACT, Mana and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram and Te Tai Tonga.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 67 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 69/121 – 8 more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 15 + Mana 1 = 49/122 – 12 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 58.5% (-2.5%)
  • Wrong 27.5% (+3.0%)
  • Can’t Say 14.0% (-0.5%)
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 33.8% 42
Labour 31.2% 39
Green 9.8% 12
Act 9.3% 12
NZ First 7.0% 9
TPM 4.4% 6
CR 50.1% 63
CL 45.3% 57
7/04/25
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