Archives: NZ Political Party Polls

3 News Reid Research Poll January 2014

February 3, 2014

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: approx 21 to 28 January 2014

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

  • National 44.5% (-3.2%)
  • Labour 33.5% (+1.2%)
  • Green 12.4% (-1.6%)
  • ACT 0.0% (+0.6%)
  • Maori 1.0%  (-0.4%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.2%)
  • Mana 0.3% (+1.1%)
  • NZ First 5.7% (+0.3%)
  • Conservative 2.1% (+1.7%)

Projected Seats

  • National 55
  • Labour 42
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 125

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 55 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 57/125 – six fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 42 + Greens 15 + Mana 1 = 58/125 – five fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 3 = 10/125

On this poll, NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • Key 39.0% (-1.9%)
  • Cunliffe 10.8% (nc)
  • Peters 5.8% (-1.7%)
  • Norman

NZ First

  • 54% say John Key should work with Winston Peters, 36% say he should rule him out
  • 61% of National supporters say John Key should work with Winston Peters, 32% say he should rule him out

Internet Party

  • 21% said they would consider voting for Kim Dotcom’s Internet Party
  • 75% would not
Leave a comment

Roy Morgan poll mid January 2014

February 3, 2014

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,509 of whom 1,449 have a party preference

Undecideds: 4.0%

Dates: 06 January to 19 January 2014

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 43.5% (-1.5%)
  • Labour 33.5% (+3.0%)
  • Green 12.5% (-2.0%)
  • NZ First 4.0% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 2.0% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 0.0% (nc)
  • Mana 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Conservative 2.5% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 56
  • Labour 43
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 56 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 58/121 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 43 + Greens 16 + Mana 1 = 60/121 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/122

On this poll the Maori Party would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 63.0% (+4.5%)
  • Wrong 23.5% (-5.0%)
  • Can’t Say 13.5% (+0.5%)
Leave a comment

Herald on Sunday Key Research Poll

January 5, 2014

Polling Company: Key Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 18.6%

Poll Size: 500 respondents, of whom 407 had a voting preference

Dates: December 2013

Client: Herald on Sunday

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 48.2%
  • Labour 39.6%
  • Green 7.6%
  • NZ First 1.0%
  • Maori 0.7%
  • United Future 1.0%
  • ACT 0%
  • Mana 0.2%
  • Conservative 0.7%

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 49
  • Green 9
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 60 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 62/124 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 49 + Greens 9 + Mana 1 = 59/124 -four fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/124

On this poll, the Maori Party would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • Key 45%
  • Cunliffe 18%

Asset Sales

  • 37% say less likely to vote National because of them
Leave a comment

NZ Herald Digipoll December 2013

January 5, 2014

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 12.6%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 656 had a party preference

Dates: 09 to 17 December 2013

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 46.8% (+3.1%)
  • Labour 35.4% (-2.3%)
  • Green 10.8% (-0.5%)
  • NZ First 3.9% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 1.3% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.0% (-0.1%)
  • Mana 0.9% (+0.2%)
  • Conservative 0.7% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 59
  • Labour 44
  • Green 14
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/123 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 44 + Greens 14 + Mana 1 = 59/123 -three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/123

On this poll, the Maori Party would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • Key 61.9% (+6.1%)
  • Cunliffe 16.5% (-0.3%)
  • Peters 7.3% (+1.1%)
  • Norman 3.4% (-0.3%)

Pike River

  • Shareholders should pay compensation 64.4%
  • Government should pay compensation 19.8%

GST

  • Should be charged on all overseas purchases 40%
  • Current exemption level of $400 should remain 53%

Berms

  • Mowing berms responsibility of householder 60%
  • Mowing berms responsibility of council 34%

Sex Education

  • 75% say should teach more than the physical and medical aspects of sex

Fireworks

  • 39% want sale of fireworks banned
  • 60% happy with current rules

Speed limit

  • 67% support reducing tolerance to 4 km/hr
  • 29% against

Hauraki Gulf

  • Ban commercial fishing in Hauraki Gulf 53%
  • Support status quo 29%

Mining

  • 58% support oil, gas and mineral exploration
  • 38% against

Land sales

  • 55% support bill limiting land sales to foreigners

Drink Driving

  • 28% support that a BAC between 0.05 and 0.08 should be a criminal offence, with most supporting it being an infringement only.

Conservatives

  • 33% think Colin Craig’s views are too extreme
  • 24% say he is a welcome addition to political debates
  • 43% don’t know

Gender Quotas

  • 54% (52% of women) say Labour’s gender quota too restrictive
  • 38% (42% of women) say a good idea
Leave a comment

3 News Reid Research Poll November 2013

November 10, 2013

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error) of whom approx 857 have a voting preference

Undecideds: 14.3%

Dates: approx 03 to 07 November 2013

Client: 3 News

Report: 3NewsPoll november 2013

Party Support

  • National 46.3% (-3.2%)
  • Labour 32.2% (+1.2%)
  • Green 10.4% (-1.6%)
  • ACT 0.8% (+0.6%)
  • Maori 1.2%  (-0.4%)
  • United Future 0.1% (-0.2%)
  • Mana 1.3% (+1.1%)
  • NZ First 4.2% (+0.3%)
  • Conservative 2.8% (+1.7%)

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 42
  • Green 14
  • ACT 0
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 2
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on ACT losing Epsom and the Maori Party losing one seat.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 60 + ACT 0 + United Future 1 = 61/121 – the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 42 + Greens 14 + Mana 2 = 58/121 – three fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 2 = 2/122

On this poll, there would be a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

  • Key 40.9% (-1.1%)
  • Cunliffe 10.8% (-1.3% from Shearer)
  • Peters 7.5% (+0.5%)
  • Norman 2.2% (+0.5%)

Leader Ratings

  • John Key – 58% well (+6%) and 28% poor (-4%) = 30% net positive (+10%)
  • David Cunliffe – 42% well (+16% from Shearer) and 25% poor (-19%) = 18% net positive (+35%)

KiwiAssure

  • 42% support a state insurer
  • 49% oppose it
Leave a comment

One News Colmar Brunton poll October 2013

October 29, 2013

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,014 respondents of whom 820 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 11%

Dates: 19 to 23 October 2013

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 45.0% (-2.0%)
  • Labour 34.0% (nc)
  • Green 13.0% (+1.0%)
  • ACT 0.5% (+0.3%)
  • Maori 1.4% (+0.1%)
  • United Future 0.1% (-0.2%)
  • Mana 0.3% (+0.3%)
  • NZ First 3.9% (+0.3%)
  • Conservative 1.6% (+0.8%)

Projected Seats

  • National 58
  • Labour 43
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Conservative 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/123 – two fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 43 + Greens 16 + Mana 1= 60/123 – two fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/123

The Maori Party would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 43% (+1.0%)
  • David Cunliffe 12% (nc)
  • Winston Peters 4% (nc)
Leave a comment

Fairfax Ipsos poll October 2013

October 28, 2013

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,030 of whom 815 have a party preference

Undecideds: 21.9%

Dates: 19 October 2013 to 23 October 2013

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 50.2% (+1.9%)
  • Labour 33.6% (+2.0%)
  • Green 10.7% (-1.6%)
  • NZ First 2.3% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 0.7% (-0.3%)
  • United Future 0.1% (nc)
  • ACT 0.1% (-0.1%)
  • Mana 0.7% (+0.2%)
  • Conservative 0.7% (-0.7%)

Projected Seats

  • National 63
  • Labour 43
  • Green 12
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 63 + ACT1 + United Future 1 = 65/124 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 42 + Greens 11 + Mana 1 = 56/124 – seven fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/125

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

Country Direction

  • Right 59.5% (+1.2%)
  • Wrong 40.5% (-1.2%)

Government Rating

  • 5.6/10 (+0.4)

Time for a change

  • Yes 50.1% (+1.5%)
  • No 43.1% (+0.4%)

Leader Attributes:

  • Strong and effective PM – Key +25.2%
  • Trust on economy – Key +20.6%
  • Stable & united Government Key +19.5%
  • Create fair society – Cunliffe +3.3%
Leave a comment

Roy Morgan poll early October 2013

October 28, 2013

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 839 of whom 801 have a party preference

Undecideds: 4.5%

Dates: 30 September 2013 to 13 October 2013

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 41.5% (-0.5%)
  • Labour 37.0% (nc)
  • Green 12.5% (+1.0%)
  • NZ First 5.0% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • Mana 0.5% (nc)
  • Conservative 0.5% (-1.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 50
  • Labour 44
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 6
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 50 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 52/121 – nine fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 44 + Greens 15 + Mana 1 = 60/121 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 6 + Maori 3 = 9/122

On this poll NZ First could form a CL Government or NZ First and Maori Party could form a CR Government.

Country Direction

  • Right 55.0% (-4.0%)
  • Wrong 31.0% (+1.5%)
  • Can’t Say 14.0% (+2.5%)
Leave a comment

Roy Morgan poll late September 2013

October 27, 2013

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 934 of whom 887 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.0%

Dates: 16 September 2013 to 29 September 2013

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 42.0% (+1.0%)
  • Labour 37.0% (+4.5%)
  • Green 11.5% (-3.5%)
  • NZ First 4.5% (-2.0%)
  • Maori 1.0% (nc)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Mana 0.5% (nc)
  • Conservative 2.0% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 54
  • Labour 47
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 54 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 56/122 – six fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 47 + Greens 15 + Mana 1 = 63/122 – one more than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/122

On this poll Labour could form a CL Government.

Country Direction

  • Right 59.0% (+6.5%)
  • Wrong 29.5% (-6.0%)
  • Can’t Say 11.5% (-0.5%)
Leave a comment

One News Colmar Brunton poll September 2013

September 25, 2013

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: approx 1,000 respondents of whom approx 860 had a voting preference

Undecideds: Dates: estimate 14 to 18 September 2013

Client: One News

Report: One News

Party Support

  • National 47.0% (+1.0%)
  • Labour 34.0% (+1.0%)
  • Green 12.0% (-2.0%)
  • ACT
  • Maori 1.0% (-0.6%)
  • United Future
  • Mana
  • NZ First 4.0% (+0.7%)
  • Conservative 1.0% (+0.4%)

Projected Seats

  • National 59
  • Labour 43
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Conservative 0
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/124 – two fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 43 + Greens 16 + Mana 1= 60/124 – three fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/124

The Maori Party would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 42% (+1.0%)
  • David Cunliffe 12% (-1.0% from Shearer)
  • Winston Peters 4% (nc)
Leave a comment
« Later posts
Earlier posts »

Curia's blog specialises in polls and polling, with a mainly New Zealand focus. More

Never miss a poll: Subscribe via email

Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 33.8% 42
Labour 31.2% 39
Green 9.8% 12
Act 9.3% 12
NZ First 7.0% 9
TPM 4.4% 6
CR 50.1% 63
CL 45.3% 57
7/04/25
Embed | Methodology

Explore the Archives

By date

By company

By issue

Get our paywalled newsletter on polling insights Subscribe

Get Curia's blog posts
via email