Fairfax Ipsos poll July 2014
July 17, 2014
Polling Company: Ipsos Poll Method: Random Phone Poll Size: 1024 respondents of whom 823 have a party preference Undecideds: 15.3% Dates: Client: Fairfax Report: Stuff Party Support
- National 54.8% (-1.7%)
- Labour 24.9% (+1.7%)
- Green 12.4% (+0.5%)
- NZ First 2.6% (-0.6%)
- Maori 0.9% (+0.2%)
- United Future 0.2% (+0.2%)
- ACT 0.1% (-0.6%)
- Mana 1.2% (nc)
- Conservative 1.3% (+0.4%)
Projected Seats
- National 69
- Labour 32
- Green 16
- ACT 1
- Maori 3
- United Future 1
- Mana 2
- NZ First 0
- Total 124
This is based on no change in electorate seats. Coalition Options
- CR – National 69 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 71/124 – eight more than the minimum needed to govern
- CL – Labour 32 + Greens 16 + Mana 2 = 50/124 – thirteen fewer than the minimum needed to govern
- C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/124
On this poll a centre-right government would be formed. Preferred PM
- John Key 58.2% (+4.9%)
- David Cunliffe 14.2% (+2.3%)
- Winston Peters
- Russel Norman
Time for a Change of Government
- Yes 41.1% (-2.7%)
- No 51.3% (+3.3%)
Leadership Changes
- Labour would gain 15.2% and lose 1.7% for a net gain of 13.6% if David Cunliffe is not leader
- National would gain 12.4% and lose 5.3% for a net gain of 7.1% if John Key is not leader
NZ First Coalition preferences
- Expect National 32.1%
- Expect Labour 29.2%
- Neither 20.2%
- Don’t Know 18.9%
Transport
- 30% say focus should be public transport
- 24% say roads
- 40% say both
- 57% say Government doing enough to ease traffic jams
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