Archives: Leader Ratings

3 News Reid Research Poll September 2011

October 2, 2011

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: assumed 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: assumed 22 September to 28 September 2011

Client: 3 News

Report:

Party Support

  • National 57.4% (+3.4%)
  • Labour 26.6% (-2.2%)
  • Green 9.8% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 1.6% (-0.6%)
  • Maori 0.8%  (-0.7%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • Mana 0.7% (-0.2%)
  • NZ First 1.9% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 71
  • Labour 33
  • Green 12
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning three electorate seats, Mana, ACT and United Future one each and Labour winning Wigram and Te Tai Tonga.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 71 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 74/124 – 12 more than minimum 62 needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 12 + Mana 1 = 46/124 -16 less than minimum 63 needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 54.5% (+1.5%)
  • Goff 6.2% (-1.8%)

Leadership Approval

  • Key – 76.2% (+1.3%) doing well vs 11.5% (-3.0%) doing poorly – net positive is 64.7% (+4.3%)
  • Goff  – 26.8% (+0.7%) doing well vs 49.1% (-3.4%) doing poorly – net positive is -22.3% (+4.1%)

Feeling after three years

  • 24% say worse off from three years ago
  • 19% better off

Greens

  • 55% say Greens should accept a coalition deal with National if Key offers one
  • 30% say they should not
  • 60% of Green voters says Greens should accept and only 27% say no
  • 63% of National voters say Greens should accept and only 25% say no
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3 News Reid Research Poll August 2011

September 5, 2011

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: assumed 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: assumed 13 August to 17 August 2011

Client: 3 News

Report:

Party Support

  • National 54.0% (-1.1%)
  • Labour 28.8% (-1.1%)
  • Green 9.3% (+0.2%)
  • ACT 2.2% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 1.5%  (+0.7%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • Mana 0.9% (+0.2%)
  • NZ First 2.2% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 67
  • Labour 36
  • Green 11
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, Mana, ACT and United Future one each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 67 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 71/124 – 9 more than minimum 63 needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 11 + Mana 1 = 48/124 -14 less than minimum 63 needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 53% (+2.5%)
  • Goff 8% (+1.1%)

Leadership Approval

  • Key – 74.9% (+2.8%) doing well vs 14.5% (+0.6%) doing poorly – net positive is 60.4% (+2.2%)
  • Goff  – 26.1% (+1.8%) doing well vs 52.5% (+2.7%) doing poorly – net positive is -26.4% (-0.9%)

Policy Preference

  • 53% prefer a capital gains tax while 31% preferred partial asset sales
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3 News Reid Research Poll July 2011

July 11, 2011

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: assumed 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: assumed 01 July to 07 July 2011

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

  • National 55.1% (+2.1%)
  • Labour 29.9% (-2.9%)
  • Green 9.1% (+2.6%)
  • ACT 1.7% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 0.8%  (-0.8%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.2%)
  • Mana 0.7% (+0.2%)
  • NZ First 2.2% (-0.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 68
  • Labour 37
  • Green 11
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats, ACT  and United Future one each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 68 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 70/124 – 7 more than minimum 63 needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 11 + Mana 1 = 49/124 -14 less than minimum 63 needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 50.5% (+2.3%)
  • Clark 1.7% (-2.8%)
  • Goff 6.9% (-0.7%)
  • Peters 3.9% (-0.1%)

Leadership Approval

  • Key – 72.1% (+3.5%) doing well vs 13.9% (-3.1%) doing poorly – net positive is 58.2% (+6.6%)
  • Goff  – 24.3% (-3.4%) doing well vs 49.8% (+2.5%) doing poorly – net positive is -25.5% (-5.9%)

Leadership Characteristics – Positive

  • capable leader – Key by 48% (-3%)
  • good in a crisis – Key by 37% (-5%)
  • sound judgement – Key by 30% (-6%)
  • in touch with Maori – Goff by 3% (+6%)

Leadership Characteristics – Negative

  • more style than substance – Key by 18% (-1%)
  • talk down to people – Goff by 7% (-1%)
  • narrow minded – Goff by 10% (-4%)
  • inflexible – Goff by 10% (nc)

Rugby World Cup Predicted Winner

  • NZ 65%
  • Australia 9%
  • South Africa 7%
  • England 3%
  • France 1%
  • Don’t Care 5%
  • Don’t Know 10%

Christchurch Earthquake Recovery

  • Government done a good job – 72% agree, 21% disagree
  • Gerry Brownlee done a good job – 57% agree, 28% disagree
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3 News Reid Research Poll May 2011

May 29, 2011

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 20 May to 26 May 2011

Client: 3 News

Report:

Party Support

  • National 53.0% (-4.5%)
  • Labour 32.8% (+5.7%)
  • Green 6.5% (-1.2%)
  • ACT 2.2% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 1.6%  (-0.9%)
  • United Future 0.2%
  • Mana 0.5%
  • NZ First 2.4% (-0.4%)

Projected Seats

  • National 65
  • Labour 41
  • Green 8
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats, ACT  and United Future one each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 65 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 69/123 – 7 more than minimum 63 needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 41 + Greens 8 + Mana 1 = 50/123 -12 less than minimum 63 needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 48.2% (-4.2%)
  • Clark 4.5% (+2.0%)
  • Goff 7.6% (+0.8%)
  • Peters 4.0% (-0.4%)

Leadership Approval

  • Key – 68.6% (-7.2%) doing well vs 17.0% (+4.1%) doing poorly – net positive is 51.6% (-11.3%)
  • Goff  – 27.7% (+1.0%) doing well vs 47.3% (-2.0%) doing poorly – net positive is -19.6% (-3.0%)

Leadership Characteristics – Positive

  • honest – Key by 22% (-3%)
  • down to earth – Key by 15% (-3%)
  • understands econ problems – Key by 19% (-6%)
  • has personality – Key by 54% (+4%)
  • in touch with Maori – Key by 3% (-3%)

Leadership Characteristics – Negative

  • inexperienced – Key by 3% (+1%)
  • out of touch – Key by 8% (+2%)

KiwiSaver

  • 43% support changes to KiwiSaver
  • 42% against KiwiSaver change
  • 87% of people in KiwiSaver will remain, but 13% want to exit
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TV3 Poll early October 2010

October 16, 2010

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, of whom 863 have a party preference, (3.5% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 27 September to 06 October 2010

Client: TV3

Report:

Party Support

  • National 53.8% (-0.7%)
  • Labour 32.6% (+2.0%)
  • Green 7.6% (-0.9%)
  • ACT 0.9% (-1.3%)
  • Maori 2.4%  (+0.9%)
  • United Future 0.3% (+0.1%)
  • Progressive 0.1% (+0.1%)
  • NZ First 1.2% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 67
  • Labour 40
  • Green 9
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 0
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats, ACT  and United Future one each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 67 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 69/123 – 7 more than minimum 63 needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 40 + Greens 9 = 49/124 -13 less than minimum 63 needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 50.6% (+1.9%)
  • Clark 3.7% (+1.4%)
  • Goff 8.8% (+1.4%)
  • Peters 3.4% (-0.3%)

Leadership Approval

  • Key – 75.9% (+6.0%) doing well vs 11.9% (-4.0%) doing poorly – net positive is 64.0% (+10.0%%)
  • Goff  – 34.2% (+3.3%) doing well vs 41.9% (-2.0%) doing poorly – net positive is -7.7% (+5.3%)

Leadership Characteristics – Positive

  • honest – Key by 18% (-2%)
  • down to earth – Key by 13% (+1%)
  • understands econ problems – Key by 26% (+3%)
  • has personality – Key by 46% (nc)
  • in touch with Maori – Key by 3% (-2%)

Leadership Characteristics – Negative

  • inexperienced – Key by 3% (-10%)
  • out of touch – Key by 0% (-4%)

Auckland Mayoralty (500 sample)

  • 56% Brown
  • 34% Banks
Rodney Hide
  • 23% say he should stay as ACT leader
  • 35% say he should step down
  • 36% say he should resign from Parliament

Act Leadership

  • 30% want Heather Roy (of those who did not say Hide should stay)
  • 17% Roger Douglas
  • 11% John Boscawen
  • 42% None

 

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TV3 poll June 2010

June 20, 2010

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, of whom 880 have a party preference, (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 8 June to 15 June 2010

Client: TV3

Report: TV3

Party Support

  • National 55.3% (+3.2%)
  • Labour 30.5% (-3.3%)
  • Green 7.5% (-0.7%)
  • ACT 1.6% (nc)
  • Maori 1.9%  (nc)
  • United Future 0.1% (-0.4%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (-0.1%)
  • NZ First 1.8% (+0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 69
  • Labour 38
  • Green 9
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 0
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats, ACT and United Future one each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 69 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 72/124 – 9 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 9 = 47/124 -16 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 49.6% (+0.4%)
  • Clark 4.9% (+1.2%)
  • Goff 5.1% (-2.4%)
  • Peters ?

Leadership Approval

  • Key – 69.0% (+0.2%) doing well vs 15.9% (-0.5%) doing poorly – net positive is 53.1% (+0.7%)
  • Goff  – 27.2% (-6.9%) doing well vs 45.4% (+3.9%) doing poorly – net positive is -18.2% (-10.8%)

Leadership Characteristics – Positive

  • honest – Key by 20% (-6%)
  • down to earth – Key by 12% (-5%)
  • understands econ problems – Key by 23% (-2%)
  • has personality – Key by 46% (+4%)
  • in touch with Maori – Key by 5% (-9%)

Leadership Characteristics – Negative

  • inexperienced – Key by 13% (-2%)
  • out of touch – Key by 4% (+1%)
Asset Sales
  • 85% say Govt should not sell Kiwibank, 9% say sell
  • 53.5% believe National will try and sell Kiwibank if they win a second term, 29.5% think they won’t
  • 80% say no the sale of any state assets, with only 12% supporting sale
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Te Karere Digipoll January 2010

February 1, 2010

Digipoll did a poll of 1,002 Maori voters between the 6th and 27th of January 2010.  685 (68%) were from the Maori Roll and 317 (32%) from the General Roll.

For each result, I give the overall result, then the response for those on the Maori roll and then General Roll.

Party Vote

  • Maori Party 38.3%, 51.2%, 11.30%
  • Labour 27.9%, 31.6%, 51.0%
  • National 16.9%, 11.4%, 28.4%l
  • Greens 3.3%, 3.3%, 3.4%

Preferred PM

  • Key 30.5%, 27.9%, 36.0%
  • Sharples 11.8%, 14.9%, 5.2%
  • Peters 7.0%, 6.0%, 9.2%
  • Turia 4.9%, 6.8%, 1.5%
  • Goff 4.6%, 3.9%, 6.5%
  • Clark 3.8%, 3.7%, 4.0%
  • Harawira 3.0%, 4.5%, 0.3%
  • Jones 2.2%, 2.2%, 2.5%

Does John Key/Phil Goff provide good leadership on Maori issues?

  • John Key Yes – 46.7%, 49.5%, 42.5%
  • John Key No – 37.1%, 36.0%, 40.0%
  • Phil Goff Yes – 18.2%, 17.1%, 19.1%
  • Phil Goff No – 58.9%, 61.9%, 55.1%

Is Phil Goff best person to lead Labour (asked of Labour voters only)?

  • Yes 36.0%, 34.4%, 38.3%
  • No 48.1%, 49.0%, 37.7%
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UMR Mood of the Nation

January 3, 2010

UMR have published a 42 page mood of the nation for 2009. Some extracts:

  • 68% say 2010 will be better than 2009, with 20% disagreeing
  • At year end 61% expect economy to get better, and 22% worse
  • 41% expect their family’s living standards to get better, and 22% worse
  • 49% expect unemployment to go up, and 26% down
  • 64% expect interest rates to increase and 11% decrease
  • In ten years time, respondents expect the economy (net +22%) to be better, race relations (+16%), transport (+6%), policing (+11%), education (+4%) and the environment (+1%). A net 9% think the health system will be worse.
  • 59% say country heading on right track and 30% wrong track. average for yeas was 65% to 23%.
  • Corporate net favourable ratings were NZ Post +84%, Telecom +27%, Air NZ +67%, TVNZ +60%
  • Bank favourability ratings are Kiwibank 65%, National 55%, ASB 55%, Westpac 55%, BNZ 49%, ANZ 45% and TSB 34%
  • Net favourability for Govt agencies are Fire Service +86%, Police +57%, Customs +63%, DOC +57%, MAF +36%, MOD +31%, Nat Lib +44%, MFish +34%, IRD +5%, MOT +5%, NZFSA +19%, Min Ed -4%, Min Health -7%, Treasury -6%, MOJ – 14%, DOL – 5%, Corrections -27%, ACC -37%, MSD -13% and TPK -7%
  • Confidence in institutions is Police +30%, GPs +29%, Unis +27%, primary schools +26%, military +6%, small business +5%, sec schools +3%, TV News -10%, banks -13%, public health system -18%, courts -16%, public service -29%, newspapers -33%, religion -34%, Parliament -43%, big business -40%, unions -42%, media generally -55%
  • Party Vote Dec 2009 is Nat 48%, Lab 35%, Greens 7.5%
  • Net favourability for John Key +54%, Phil Goff +9%,
  • Top five issues are economy 33%, unemployment 14%, crime 11%, health care 4%, politics/govt 4%
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TV3 Poll December 2009

December 14, 2009

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, of whom 893 have a party preference, (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 02 December to 08 December 2009

Client: TV3

Report: TV3

Party Support

  • National 55.2% (-4.7%)
  • Labour 30.8% (+3.6%)
  • Green 7.8% (+0.9%)
  • ACT 1.8% (+0.1%)
  • Maori 1.7%  (-0.7%)
  • United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
  • Progressive 0.1% (-0.2%)
  • NZ First 1.5% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 68
  • Labour 38
  • Green 10
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 125

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 68 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 71/125 – 8 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Progressive 1 + Greens 10 = 49/124 -14 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 49.9% (-5.9%)
  • Clark 6.1% (-2.1%)
  • Goff 8.0% (+3.3%)
  • Peters 2.1% (-0.9%

Leadership Approval

  • Key – 72.9% (-9.4%) doing well vs 12.3% (+5.1%) doing poorly – net positive is 60.6% (-14.5%)
  • Goff  – 32.2% (-2.0%) doing well vs 40.6% (+2.7%) doing poorly – net positive is -8.4% (-4.7%)

Leadership Characteristics – Positive

  • capable leader – Key by 41% (+1%)
  • good in a crisis – Key by 29% (nc)
  • sound judgement – Key by 23% (-5%)
  • in touch with Maori – Key by 14% (+8%)

Leadership Characteristics – Negative

  • more style than substance – Key by 12% (+4%)
  • talk down to people – Goff by 8% (+1%)
  • narrow minded – Goff by 7% (-3%)
  • inflexible – Goff by 2% (-7%)
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NZ Herald Digipoll October 2009

October 31, 2009

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 750 respondents (3.6% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 15 October to 28 October 2009

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald pdf

Party Support

  • National 57.3% (+9.4%)
  • Labour 32.4% (-4.0%)
  • Green 4.6% (-1.2%)
  • NZ First 0.9% (-3.0%)
  • Maori 2.8% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.7%)
  • ACT 0.9% (-0.9%)
  • Progressive 0.1% (-0.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 73
  • Labour 42
  • Green 0
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 73 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 75/123 – 13 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 42 + Progressive 1 + Greens 0 = 43/123 -19 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 55.3% (+9.1%)
  • Clark 10.6% (-31.0%)
  • Goff 6.2% (+6.2%)
  • Peters 2.1% (-2.9%)

Job Approval

  • Bill English 60.8% good or better, 31.9% not good or poor
  • Phil Goff 41.3% good or better, 42.0% not good or poor
Direction
  • Right 61.2%
  • Wrong 27.5%
Financial Crisis Handling by Govt
  • 77.6% say good or better
  • 20.3% not very good or poor
Personal Situation compared to a year ago
  • 28.7% better off
  • 32.6% no change
  • 37.1% worse off
Most effective Minister
  • Bill English 16.2%
  • Paula Bennett 5.5%
  • Judith Collins 3.1%
  • Tony Ryall 2.4%
  • Nick Smith 2.4%
  • Simon Power 2.0%

Note this question appears to be unprompted, and name recognition appears to be a major factor.

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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 35.2% 44
Labour 29.7% 37
Act 9.6% 12
Green 10.8% 14
NZ First 7.4% 9
Maori 3.1% 6
CR 51.2% 65
CL 44.1% 57
Total 97.9% 122
14/10/24
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