Archives: Labour Leadership

Newshub Reid Research poll March 2017

March 21, 2017

Polling Company: Reid Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone 750 and Internet Panel 250

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates:  10 to 19 March 2017

Client: Newshub

Report: Newshub

Party Support

  • National 47.1% (+2.0%)
  • Labour 30.8% (-1.9%)
  • Green 11.2% (-0.3%)
  • NZ First 7.6% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 0.7% (-0.6%)
  • United Future 0.4% (+0.3%)
  • ACT 0.4% (+0.2%)
  • Mana 0.0% (-0.4%)
  • Conservative 0.4% (-0.1%)
  • Opportunities 0.8%

Projected Seats

  • National 58
  • Labour 38
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 9
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/122 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 14 = 52/122 – ten fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 9 + Maori 1 = 10/122

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • Bill English 25.0% (-11.7% from Key)
  • Andrew Little 8.3% (-2.2%)
  • Winston Peters 8.9% (-2.0%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 10.5%

Labour Leader

  • Andrew Little 46%
  • Jacinda Ardern 38%

Housing

  • Is Government doing enough to control housing market – yes 19%
  • No 19%

Immigration

  • 51% support a cut in immigration
  • 39% do not

Superannuation

  • 52% support increase in entitlement age to 67
  • 42% do not
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3 News Reid Research poll September 2015

September 23, 2015

Polling Company: Reid Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates: 08 to 16 September 2015

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

  • National 47.3% (+0.3%)
  • Labour 33.0% (+1.9%)
  • Green 10.0% (-1.4%)
  • NZ First 7.9% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 0.5% (-0.1%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.1%)
  • ACT 0.6% (+0.1%)
  • Mana 0.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 0.5% (-0.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 40
  • Green 12
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 9
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/121 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 40 + Greens 12 = 52/121 – nine fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 9 + Maori 1 = 10/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 39.5% (+1.2%)
  • Andrew Little 10.8% (+0.6%)
  • Winston Peters 8.6% (-2.7%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 3.5%

NZ Flag

  • Change flag 25%
  • Keep flag 69%

Private Prisons

  • Govt only should run them 70%
  • 13% okay with Serco running them
  • 13% okay with private providers if not Serco

Labour Deputy Leadership

  • Jacinda Ardern 33%
  • Annette King 25%
  • Kelvin Davis 11%
  • Phil Twyford 3%
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NZ Herald DigiPoll August 2015

August 26, 2015

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Subscriber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 750 of whom 660 have a party preference

Undecideds: 12%

Dates: 14 August to 24 August 2015

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 50.8% (-0.2%)
  • Labour 31.0% (+2.3%)
  • Green 9.2% (-1.6%)
  • NZ First 6.9% (+0.8%)
  • Maori 0.2% (-0.6%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.2% (-0.6%)
  • Mana/Internet 0.2% (+0.2%)
  • Conservative 0.6% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 62
  • Labour 38
  • Green 11
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 8
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 62 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 64/122 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 11 = 49/122 – 13 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 8 + Maori 1 = 9/122

On this poll National would be able to govern alone.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 63.7% (-0.9%)
  • Andrew Little 13.3% (-0.6%)
  • Winston Peters 11.6% (-0.4%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 3.9% (+3.4%)

Country Direction

  • Right 50.9% (-4.4%)
  • Wrong 40.9% (+4.9%)

Next National Leader

  • Bill English 30.3%
  • Steven Joyce 14.2%
  • Paula Bennett 11.4%
  • Simon Bridges 7.2%

Next Labour Leader

  • Annette King 21.8%
  • Jacinda Ardern 20.1%
  • Grant Robertson 18.0%
  • Phil Twyford 4.0%

Private Prisons

  • 57% say prisons should always be run by the state
  • 38% say there is a place for well-run private companies operating prisons.

Foreign House Buyers

  • 32% support a ban on foreigners buying houses
  • 20% oppose a ban
  • 42% would support a ban if there is evidence foreign buyers are pushing prices up

NZ Flag

  • 53% against change in principle
  • 23% support change in principle
  • 24% depends on alternative designs

TPP

  • 30% oppose TPP
  • 20% support TPP
  • 45% not know enough to have a view

Iraq

  • 59% support the deployment of troops to do training (+2%)
  • 34% oppose
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NZ Herald DigiPoll 11 September 2014

September 12, 2014

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds:

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 682 had a party preference

Dates: 04 September to 10 September 2014

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 48.6% (-1.5%)
  • Labour 24.6% (+0.8%)
  • Green 11.5% (+0.1)
  • NZ First 8.1% (+2.1%)
  • Maori 0.7% (+0.3%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.3%)
  • ACT 0.3% (-0.1%)
  • Mana/Internet 2.3% (-1.2%)
  • Conservative 3.8% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 61
  • Labour 31
  • Green 14
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Mana/Internet 3
  • NZ First 10
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 61 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 63/124 – the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 31 + Greens 14 + Mana/Internet 3 = 48/124 – 15 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 10 + Maori 3 = 13/124

On this poll, National would form the Government.

Preferred PM

  • Key 61.6% (-7.3%)
  • Cunliffe 17.9% (+3.9%)
  • Peters 7.8% (+1.4%)
  • Norman 3.3% (+1.0%)

Labour Leadership

  • 45% say  Cunliffe should stay on regardless of result
  • 32% say he should resign and not contest leadership
  • 14% say he should resign and contest leadership

Dirty Politics

  • 81% say the book will not change the way they vote
  • 15% say it will
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Fairfax Ipsos poll July 2014

July 17, 2014

Polling Company: Ipsos Poll Method: Random Phone Poll Size: 1024 respondents of whom 823 have a party preference Undecideds: 15.3% Dates: Client: Fairfax Report: Stuff Party Support

  • National 54.8% (-1.7%)
  • Labour 24.9% (+1.7%)
  • Green 12.4% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 2.6% (-0.6%)
  • Maori 0.9% (+0.2%)
  • United Future 0.2% (+0.2%)
  • ACT 0.1% (-0.6%)
  • Mana 1.2% (nc)
  • Conservative 1.3% (+0.4%)

Projected Seats

  • National 69
  • Labour 32
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 2
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats. Coalition Options

  • CR – National 69 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 71/124 – eight more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 32 + Greens 16 + Mana 2 = 50/124 – thirteen fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/124

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed. Preferred PM

  • John Key 58.2% (+4.9%)
  • David Cunliffe 14.2% (+2.3%)
  • Winston Peters
  • Russel Norman

Time for a Change of Government

  • Yes 41.1% (-2.7%)
  • No 51.3% (+3.3%)

Leadership Changes

  • Labour would gain 15.2% and lose 1.7% for a net gain of 13.6% if David Cunliffe is not leader
  • National would gain 12.4% and lose 5.3% for a net gain of 7.1% if John Key is not leader

NZ First Coalition preferences

  • Expect National 32.1%
  • Expect Labour 29.2%
  • Neither 20.2%
  • Don’t Know 18.9%

Transport

  • 30% say focus should be public transport
  • 24% say roads
  • 40% say both
  • 57% say Government doing enough to ease traffic jams
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3 News Labour Leadership poll

September 7, 2013

3 News reports on the preferred candidates for Labour Leader:

  • David Cunliffe 39.6%
  • Shane Jones 31.6%
  • Grant Robertson 28.8%

Among Labour voters:

  • David Cunliffe 45.6%
  • Shane Jones 28.1%
  • Grant Robertson 26.4%

Will Robertson’s sexuality affect his chances of becomiing PM

  • Yes 58.5%
  • No 41.5%

Is Shane Jones fully rehabilitated

  • Yes 39.5%
  • No 60.5%
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Labour leadership poll

August 25, 2013

A One News Colmar Brunton poll of around 500 respondents found:

  • 33% believe a change of leader will increase support for Labour
  • 45% say it will make no difference
  • 7% say it will decrease support

Given a list of five Labour MPs, the support for each was:

  • David Cunliffe 29%
  • Jacinda Ardern 15%
  • Shane Jones 11%
  • Grant Robertson 10%
  • Andrew Little 9%
  • Don’t Know 22%
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3 News Reid Research Poll July 2013

July 22, 2013

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error) of whom 831 have a voting preference

Undecideds: 14.2%

Dates: 09 to 17 July 2013

Client: 3 News

Report: 3NewsPoll July 2013

Party Support

  • National 49.5% (+2.4%)
  • Labour 31.0% (-2.1%)
  • Green 12.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.2% (nc)
  • Maori 1.6%  (-0.6%)
  • United Future 0.2% (-0.2%)
  • Mana 0.2% (-0.3%)
  • NZ First 3.9% (+1.7%)
  • Conservative 1.1% (-0.4%)

Projected Seats

  • National 63
  • Labour 40
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 63 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 65/124 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 40 + Greens 15 + Mana 1 = 56/124 – seven fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/123

On this poll, there would be a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

  • Key 42.0% (+1.3%)
  • Shearer 12.1% (+1.6%)
  • Peters 7.0% (+0.9%)
  • Norman 1.7% (-1.9%)

Leadership Performance Ratings

  • John Key – 52.0% (-3.0%) well and 32.2% (+1.9%) poor = +19% net well (-4.9%)
  • David Shearer – 26.1% (-10.1%) well and 43.3% (+7.0%) poor = -17.2% net well (-17.1%)

Kim Dotcom

  • 52% believe Kim Dotcom’s claims John Key knew of him before the raids
  • 34% believe Key’s denials

David Shearer

  • 42% say Shearer should step down as Labour leader
  • 45% say Shearer should remain
  • 39% of Labour voters say Shearer should step down, 51% say stay

Alternate Labour Leaders

  • David Cunliffe 26%
  • Grant Robertson 16%
  • Andrew Little 9%
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NZ Herald poll June 2013

June 26, 2013

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 11.9%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 661 had a party preference

Dates: 12 to 23 June 2013

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 48.8% (+0.3%)
  • Labour 30.9% (-5.5%)
  • Green 10.5% (+1.5%)
  • NZ First 5.1% (+2.6%)
  • Maori 1.8% (+0.7%)
  • United Future 0.3% (+0.3%)
  • ACT 0.2% (+0.1%)
  • Mana 0.5% (nc)
  • Conservative 1.5% (+0.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 38
  • Green 13
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 6
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 60 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 62/123 – the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 13 + Mana 1 = 52/123 -10 less than minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 6 + Maori 3 = 9/123

Preferred PM

  • Key 65.2% (+2.2%)
  • Shearer 12.4% (-6.1%)
  • Peters 6.4% (+2.4%)
  • Norman 3.6%

Labour Leadership successors if Shearer goes

  • David Cunliffe 31.8%
  • Grant Robertson 16.7%
  • Andrew Little 13.5%
  • Other 11.0%
  • Unsure 27.0%

Inquiry into GCSB

  • Agree 52.1%
  • Disagree 36.9%
  • Don’t Know 11.0%

Peter Dunne

  • 22% believe he did not leak GCSB report
  • 59% do not believe his denial

Sky City deal

  • 34% approve
  • 62% disapprove

Fluoride

  • 48% support fluoride being added to drinking water
  • 25% opposed
  • 24% up to local council

Fiordland transport projects

  • 46.2% back a tunnel and/or monorail track
  • 46.2% oppose

National leadership when Key goes

  • Bill English 29.7%
  • Steven Joyce 25.4%
  • Judith Collin 13.0%

Student Loans

  • 57% agree with arresting loan defaulters at the border
  • 40% disagree

Sir Douglas Graham

  • 55% say he should lose knighthood
  • 33% disagree

Working for Families Tax Credits

  • 51% support extending to parents on welfare
  • 41% opposed

Housing developments

  • 43% back Govt having power to override councils’ planning and consent processes
  • 51% opposed
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Future Leaders

November 20, 2011

The NZ Herald reports:

If Phil Goff left politics, who would be the best Labour leader?

* Annette King 21.9 per cent
* David Cunliffe 16.3 per cent
* Shane Jones 12.7 per cent
* David Parker 11.2 per cent

If John Key left politics, who would be the best National leader?

* Bill English 27.1 per cent
* Steven Joyce 18.6 per cent
* Judith Collins 15.7 per cent
* Gerry Brownlee 10.6 per cent.

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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 35.2% 44
Labour 29.7% 37
Act 9.6% 12
Green 10.8% 14
NZ First 7.4% 9
Maori 3.1% 6
CR 51.2% 65
CL 44.1% 57
Total 97.9% 122
14/10/24
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