Archives: Economy

NZ Herald Digipoll October 2009

October 31, 2009

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 750 respondents (3.6% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 15 October to 28 October 2009

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald pdf

Party Support

  • National 57.3% (+9.4%)
  • Labour 32.4% (-4.0%)
  • Green 4.6% (-1.2%)
  • NZ First 0.9% (-3.0%)
  • Maori 2.8% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.7%)
  • ACT 0.9% (-0.9%)
  • Progressive 0.1% (-0.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 73
  • Labour 42
  • Green 0
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 73 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 75/123 – 13 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 42 + Progressive 1 + Greens 0 = 43/123 -19 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 55.3% (+9.1%)
  • Clark 10.6% (-31.0%)
  • Goff 6.2% (+6.2%)
  • Peters 2.1% (-2.9%)

Job Approval

  • Bill English 60.8% good or better, 31.9% not good or poor
  • Phil Goff 41.3% good or better, 42.0% not good or poor
Direction
  • Right 61.2%
  • Wrong 27.5%
Financial Crisis Handling by Govt
  • 77.6% say good or better
  • 20.3% not very good or poor
Personal Situation compared to a year ago
  • 28.7% better off
  • 32.6% no change
  • 37.1% worse off
Most effective Minister
  • Bill English 16.2%
  • Paula Bennett 5.5%
  • Judith Collins 3.1%
  • Tony Ryall 2.4%
  • Nick Smith 2.4%
  • Simon Power 2.0%

Note this question appears to be unprompted, and name recognition appears to be a major factor.

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TV3 Reid Research Poll October 2009

October 18, 2009

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, of whom 917 have a party preference, (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 06 October to 14 October 2009

Client: TV3

Report: TV3

Party Support

  • National 59.9% (+1.8%)
  • Labour 27.2% (-2.0%)
  • Green 6.9% (-0.6%)
  • ACT 1.7% (+0.3%)
  • Maori 2.4%  (+1.2%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.2%)
  • Progressive 0.3% (+0.3%)
  • NZ First 1.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 74
  • Labour 33
  • Green 8
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 74 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 77/124 – 14 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Progressive 1 + Greens 8 = 42/124 -21 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 55.8% (+4.3%)
  • Clark 8.2% (+0.2%)
  • Goff 4.7% 6.5% (-1.8%)
  • Peters 3.0%

Leadership Approval

  • Key – 82.3% (+3.7%) doing well vs 7.2% (-2.0%) doing poorly – net positive is 75.1% (=5.1%)
  • Goff  – 34.2% (-0.2%) doing well vs 37.9% (-3.7%) doing poorly – net positive is -3.7% (+3.5%)

Leadership Characteristics – Positive

  • capable leader – Key by 40% (+8%)
  • good in a crisis – Key by 29% (+5%)
  • sound judgement – Key by 28% (+8%)
  • honest – Key by 29% (+16%)
  • down to earth – Key by 18% (+9%)
  • understands economic problems – Key by 30% (+8%)
  • has a lot of personality – Key by 46% (+19%)
  • in touch with Maori – Key by 6% (+4%)

Leadership Characteristics – Negative

  • more style than substance – Key by 8% (-2%)
  • talk down to people – Goff by 7% (-4%)
  • narrow minded – Goff by 10% (-2%)
  • inflexible – Goff by 9% (-2%)
  • inexperienced – Key by 19% (-3%)
  • out of touch  – Goff by 7% (+4%)

Economy

  • 54% said impact of recession has been what they expected
  • 30% say it was better than expected
  • 14% worse than expected
  • 2% don’t know
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One News Colmar Brunton Poll September 2009

October 1, 2009

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 adults, of whom 837 are decided

Dates: 19 September to 24 September 2009

Client: One News

Report:

Party Support

  • National 54.0% (-2.0%)
  • Labour 33.0% (+2.0%)
  • Green 4.3% (-2.7%)
  • ACT 3.2% (+2.2%)
  • Maori 2.7% (-0.4%)
  • United Future 0.2% (+0.1%)
  • Progressive 0.4% (-0.1%)
  • NZ First 1.7% (+0.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 70
  • Labour 42
  • Green 0
  • ACT 4
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 70 + ACT 4 + United Future 1 = 75/123 – 13 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 42 + Progressive 1 + Greens 0 = 43/123 -19 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Economic Outlook

  • 70% economy over next 12 months will be better (+10.0%)
  • 16% same (-2.0%)
  • 13% worse (-9.0%)
Preferred PM
  • John Key 50% (-1.0%)
  • Phil Goff 9% (+2%)
  • Helen Clark 4% (+1%)
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Global Economic Crisis

September 14, 2009

UMR polled 750 NZers from 27 to 30 August 2009.

Findings:

  • 36% think the worst of the recession is over -more so amongst men and higher income earners
  • Concern about the crisis for the NZ economy has dropped from 72% in June to 61% in August
  • Concern about the crisis for people personally has dropped from 54% in June to 48% in August
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Global Finance Crisis poll by UMR

May 11, 2009

UMR polled 750 people from 2 to 14 April 2009. Findings include:

  • 1 in 3 believe the crisis will get a lot worse or lead to a depression
  • 41% of Kiwi’s believe economy will pick up within a year
  • 82% blame international events for the slow down and only 11% domestic events
  • 42% expect to spend less in 2009 than 2008

Full results are here.

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One News Colmar Brunton Poll March 2009

April 6, 2009

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: Approx 1,000 adults

Dates: Probably 28 March to 2 April 2009

Client: One News

Report: TVNZ

Party Support

  • National 57.0% (+1.0%)
  • Labour 31.0% (+3.0%)
  • Green 7.0% (+1.0%)
  • ACT 1.6% (-1.5%)
  • Maori 2.2% (-1.2%)
  • United Future not reported yet
  • Progressive not reported yet
  • NZ First not reported yet

Projected Seats

  • National 70
  • Labour 37
  • Green 8
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 70 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 73/124 – 10 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Progressive 1 + Greens 8 = 46/124 -17 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.Economic Outlook

  • 42% economy over next 12 months will be better (+5.0%)
  • 19% same (-2.0%)
  • 39% worse (-3.0%)
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One News Colmar Brunton Poll February 2009

March 7, 2009

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,007 total voters, 877  likely voters (3.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 14 February to 19 February 2009

Client: One News

Report: TVNZ

Party Support

  • National 56.0% (+9.0%)
  • Labour 28.0% (-7.0%)
  • Green 6.0% (-3.0%)
  • ACT 3.1% (+0.6%)
  • Maori 3.4% (+2.1%)
  • United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
  • Progressive 0.4% (+0.4%)
  • NZ First 1.4% (-1.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 70
  • Labour 35
  • Green 7
  • ACT 4
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 70 = 70/122 – majority possible
  • Labour 35 + Progressive 1 + Greens 7 + Maori 5 = 48/122 = no majority possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 62 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive, Greens and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party.

Economic Outlook

  • 37% economy over next 12 months will be better (-4.0%)
  • 21% same (+2.0%)
  • 42% worse (+2.0)
Jobs
  • 22% worried they could close their job
  • 66% not worried
  • 8% do not have a job
  • 2% have lost their jobs
  • 2% don’t know
Labour Leadership
  • 53% could name Phil Goff as Labour Leader
  • 13% could name Annette King as Deputy Leader of Labour
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Economic Management

November 6, 2008

The Herald Digipoll asked whether a Labour-led government or a National-led one would better handle the New Zealand economy as the world faces a downturn.

  • 49.6% said National
  • 40.7% said Labour
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One News Colmar Brunton on Economic Management

October 20, 2008

The One News Colmar Brunton poll asked respondents who they blame for NZ’s economic strife:

  • 35% say international forces
  • 14% say NZ Govt
  • 49% say both

On the issue of who they most trust to manage the economy:

  • 48% John Key
  • 41% Helen Clark
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One News Colmar Brunton Poll 12 October 2008

October 12, 2008

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,008 total voters and 860 decided voters (3.2% and 3.5% maximum margins of error)

Dates: 4 October to 09 October 2008

Client: One News

Report: TVNZ

Party Support

  • National 51.0% (-1.0%)
  • Labour 33.0% (nc)
  • Green 8.0% (+1.0%)
  • NZ First 2.6% (+0.6%)
  • Maori 2.8% (+0.3%)
  • United Future 0.1% (-0.6%)
  • ACT 1.6% (+0.1%)
  • Progressive 0.3% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 63
  • Labour 41
  • Green 10
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 6
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 2
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 63 = 63/124 – majority possible
  • Labour 41 + Progressive 1 + Greens 10 + Maori 6 + United Future 1 = 59/124 = no majority possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 63 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.

Preferred PM

  • Key 39.0% (-2.0%)
  • Clark 31.0% (nc)
  • Peters 2.0% (-1.0%)

Economic Outlook

  • Better 38.0% (-3.0%)
  • Worse 42.0% (+4.0%)
  • Same 20.0% (-2.0%)
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 35.2% 44
Labour 29.7% 37
Act 9.6% 12
Green 10.8% 14
NZ First 7.4% 9
Maori 3.1% 6
CR 51.2% 65
CL 44.1% 57
Total 97.9% 122
14/10/24
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