Archives: Economy

3 News Reid Research Poll September 2011

October 2, 2011

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: assumed 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: assumed 22 September to 28 September 2011

Client: 3 News

Report:

Party Support

  • National 57.4% (+3.4%)
  • Labour 26.6% (-2.2%)
  • Green 9.8% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 1.6% (-0.6%)
  • Maori 0.8%  (-0.7%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • Mana 0.7% (-0.2%)
  • NZ First 1.9% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 71
  • Labour 33
  • Green 12
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning three electorate seats, Mana, ACT and United Future one each and Labour winning Wigram and Te Tai Tonga.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 71 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 74/124 – 12 more than minimum 62 needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 12 + Mana 1 = 46/124 -16 less than minimum 63 needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 54.5% (+1.5%)
  • Goff 6.2% (-1.8%)

Leadership Approval

  • Key – 76.2% (+1.3%) doing well vs 11.5% (-3.0%) doing poorly – net positive is 64.7% (+4.3%)
  • Goff  – 26.8% (+0.7%) doing well vs 49.1% (-3.4%) doing poorly – net positive is -22.3% (+4.1%)

Feeling after three years

  • 24% say worse off from three years ago
  • 19% better off

Greens

  • 55% say Greens should accept a coalition deal with National if Key offers one
  • 30% say they should not
  • 60% of Green voters says Greens should accept and only 27% say no
  • 63% of National voters say Greens should accept and only 25% say no
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One News Colmar Brunton Poll September 2011

October 2, 2011

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,008, of whom 858 had a party preference

Undecideds: 10%

Dates: 24 to 28 September 2011

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 56.0% (nc)
  • Labour 29.0% (-1.0%)
  • Green 9.0% (+3.0%)
  • ACT 1.3% (-0.4%)
  • Maori 1.1% (-0.3%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • Mana 0.6% (-0.3%)
  • NZ First 1.9% (-0.4%)

Projected Seats

  • National 69
  • Labour 36
  • Green 11
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning three electorate seats, ACT, United Future and Mana one seat each and Labour winning Wigram and Te Tai Tonga.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 69 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 72/123 – 10 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 11 + Mana 1= 48/122 -14 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 59% (+2%)
  • Phil Goff 8% (nc)
  • Winston Peters 2% (nc)

Economic Outlook

  • Better 45% (-4%)
  • Worse 35% (+5%)
  • Same 20% (nc)

NZ doing good job of Rugby World Cup Hosting

  • Yes 90%
  • No 5%

Blame for RWC Opening Night Issues

  • The Government 14%
  • The Auckland Council 65%
  • Neither 6%
  • Other 8%

Knowledge of Date of General Election

  • End of this year 77%
  • Next year 11%
  • Not announced yet 8%
  • Unsure 4%

What outcome matters more

  • Rugby World Cup 30%
  • General Election 66%
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Fairfax Research International Poll July 2011

July 31, 2011

Polling Company: Research International

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,008, of whom 860 had a party preference

Dates: 21 to 25 July 2011

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 56.0%
  • Labour 29.0%
  • Green 6.4%
  • ACT 2.2%
  • Maori 1.2%
  • United Future <1%
  • Mana 0.2%
  • NZ First 2.0%

Projected Seats

  • National 71
  • Labour 36
  • Green 8
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, United Future and Mana one seat each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 71 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 75/121 – 12 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 8 + Mana 1= 45/121 -18 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 53%
  • Phil Goff 6.2%
  • Winston Peters 2.5%

Preferred Coalition Partners

  • Greens 25%
  • ACT 18%
  • Maori 11%
  • Labour 8.2%
  • National 5.5%
  • NZ First 2.7%
  • United Future 1.2%
  • Mana 0.2%
Best plan to fix the economy
  • National 49%
  • Labour 17%
  • Green 1.5%
  • ACT 1.8%
  • Maori 0.2%
  • Mana 0.2%
  • NZ First 0.4%
Issues important to voting decisions
  1. Health and education 90%
  2. Economy 84%
  3. Law & Order 83%
  4. Cost of living 83%
  5. Rebuilding Christchurch 75%
  6. Environment 72%
  7. Social Welfare 65%
  8. Superannuation/KiwiSaver 64%
  9. SOEs 60%
  10. Taxes 59%
  11. Immigration 47%
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One News Colmar Brunton Poll July 2011

July 21, 2011

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,008, of whom 860 had a party preference

Dates: 9 to 13 July 2011

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 53.0% (+1.0%)
  • Labour 27.0% (-7.0%)
  • Green 10.0% (+4.0%)
  • ACT 3.1% (+0.6%)
  • Maori 3.0% (+1.6%)
  • United Future 0.3% (nc)
  • Mana 0.5% (-0.4%)
  • NZ First 2.4% (+0.8%)

Projected Seats

  • National 66
  • Labour 33
  • Green 12
  • ACT 4
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, United Future and Mana one seat each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 66 + ACT 4 + United Future 1 = 71/121 – 10 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 12 + Mana 1= 46/121 -15 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 54% (+1%)
  • Phil Goff 9% (+1%)
  • Winston Peters 3% (+15)

Economic Outlook

  • Better 52% (+4%)
  • Worse 28% (-5%)
  • Same 20% (+1%)
Capital Gains Tax
  • Support 43%
  • Oppose 49%
  • Don’t Know 9%
Raise tax rate to 39% for those over $120,000
  • Support 42%
  • Oppose 54%
  • Don’t Know 5%
Most trusted party to manage economy
  • National 53%
  • Labour 24%
  • Greens 2%
  • ACT 1%
  • Don’t Know 13%
Best Finance Minister
  • Bill English 49%
  • David Cunliffe 29%
  • Don’t Know 23%
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One News Colmar Brunton Poll May 2011

May 29, 2011

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: Around 1,000

Dates: to 21 to 25 May 2011

Client: One News

Report: TVNZ

Party Support

  • National 52.0% (+1.0%)
  • Labour 33.0% (+1.0%)
  • Green 6.0% (-2.0%)
  • ACT 2.5% (+1.2%)
  • Maori 1.4% (-0.9%)
  • United Future ?
  • Mana 0.9%
  • NZ First 1.6% (-2.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 65
  • Labour 42
  • Green 7
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, United Future and Mana one seat each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 65 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 69/123 – 7 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 42 + Greens 7 + Mana 1= 50/123 -12 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 53% (-2%)
  • Phil Goff 8% (-3%)

Economic Outlook

  • Better 48% (+10%)
  • Worse 33% (-12%)
Budget
  • 4% feel better off, 62% the same and 29% worse off
  • 42% support KiwiSaver changes, 50% opposed
  • 31% say Budget will improve economy, 41% no change and 20% will be negative for economy
Racism
  • 21% say NZ has a great deal of racism
  • 55% say some racism
  • 20% say only a little racism
  • 3% say no racism
Maori Rights
  • 45% say Maori have more rights than other New Zealanders
  • 48% say the same rights
  • 6% say less rights
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One News Colmar Brunton Poll August 2010

August 16, 2010

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,011 adults, 864 of whom had a party vote preference

Dates: 31 July to 04 August 2010

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 49.0% (nc)
  • Labour 35.0% (+2.0%)
  • Green 7.0% (nc)
  • ACT 2.7% (+1.1%)
  • Maori 2.3% (-1.3%)
  • United Future 0.4% (-0.1%)
    Progressive 0.1% (-0.4%)
  • NZ First 2.3% (+1.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 61
  • Labour 44
  • Green 9
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 0
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats, ACT, United Future one seat each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 61 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 65/121 – 3 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 44 + Greens 9 = 53/121 -9 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Economic Outlook

  • 55% economy over next 12 months will be better (-1.0%)
  • 19% same (+1.0%)
  • 25% worse (-1.0%)
Preferred PM
  • John Key 45% (-1.0%)
  • Phil Goff 9% (+3%)
  • Helen Clark 3% (nc)
Drink Drive Limit
  • 64% say Govt should have lowered to 0.05
  • 34% say should not have lowered
Extending 90 day trial periods
  • 60% support extending to all employers
  • 36% opposed
Chris Carter
  • 58% say he should resign from Parliament
  • 33% say he should not

Phil Goff

  • 24% say he can win the next election
  • 65% say he can not, including 39% of Labour voters
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TV3 poll June 2010

June 20, 2010

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, of whom 880 have a party preference, (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 8 June to 15 June 2010

Client: TV3

Report: TV3

Party Support

  • National 55.3% (+3.2%)
  • Labour 30.5% (-3.3%)
  • Green 7.5% (-0.7%)
  • ACT 1.6% (nc)
  • Maori 1.9%  (nc)
  • United Future 0.1% (-0.4%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (-0.1%)
  • NZ First 1.8% (+0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 69
  • Labour 38
  • Green 9
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 0
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats, ACT and United Future one each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 69 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 72/124 – 9 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 9 = 47/124 -16 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 49.6% (+0.4%)
  • Clark 4.9% (+1.2%)
  • Goff 5.1% (-2.4%)
  • Peters ?

Leadership Approval

  • Key – 69.0% (+0.2%) doing well vs 15.9% (-0.5%) doing poorly – net positive is 53.1% (+0.7%)
  • Goff  – 27.2% (-6.9%) doing well vs 45.4% (+3.9%) doing poorly – net positive is -18.2% (-10.8%)

Leadership Characteristics – Positive

  • honest – Key by 20% (-6%)
  • down to earth – Key by 12% (-5%)
  • understands econ problems – Key by 23% (-2%)
  • has personality – Key by 46% (+4%)
  • in touch with Maori – Key by 5% (-9%)

Leadership Characteristics – Negative

  • inexperienced – Key by 13% (-2%)
  • out of touch – Key by 4% (+1%)
Asset Sales
  • 85% say Govt should not sell Kiwibank, 9% say sell
  • 53.5% believe National will try and sell Kiwibank if they win a second term, 29.5% think they won’t
  • 80% say no the sale of any state assets, with only 12% supporting sale
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One News Colmar Brunton Poll May 2010

May 30, 2010

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,009 adults, 843 of whom had a party vote preference

Dates: 22 to 26 May 2010

Client: One News

Report: TVNZ

Party Support

  • National 49.0% (-5.0%)
  • Labour 33.0% (nc)
  • Green 7.0% (+2.3%)
  • ACT 2.2% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 3.6% (+1.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (+0.3%)
    Progressive 0.5% (+0.3%)
  • NZ First 1.3% (-0.4%)

Projected Seats

  • National 62
  • Labour 41
  • Green 9
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 0
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats, ACT, United Future one seat each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 62 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 66/121 – 5 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 41 + Greens 9 = 50/121 -11 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Economic Outlook

  • 56% economy over next 12 months will be better (-9.0%)
  • 18% same (+2.0%)
  • 26% worse (+7.0%)
Preferred PM
  • John Key 46% (-2.0%)
  • Phil Goff 6% (-2%)
  • Helen Clark not yet known
2010 Budget
  • 37% say makes them better off, 53% say it does not
  • 61% say budget good for economy, 25% disagree
  • 50% say it was fair, and 41% disagree
Drinking Age
  • 74% want 20 and 24% 18
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UMR Mood of the Nation

January 3, 2010

UMR have published a 42 page mood of the nation for 2009. Some extracts:

  • 68% say 2010 will be better than 2009, with 20% disagreeing
  • At year end 61% expect economy to get better, and 22% worse
  • 41% expect their family’s living standards to get better, and 22% worse
  • 49% expect unemployment to go up, and 26% down
  • 64% expect interest rates to increase and 11% decrease
  • In ten years time, respondents expect the economy (net +22%) to be better, race relations (+16%), transport (+6%), policing (+11%), education (+4%) and the environment (+1%). A net 9% think the health system will be worse.
  • 59% say country heading on right track and 30% wrong track. average for yeas was 65% to 23%.
  • Corporate net favourable ratings were NZ Post +84%, Telecom +27%, Air NZ +67%, TVNZ +60%
  • Bank favourability ratings are Kiwibank 65%, National 55%, ASB 55%, Westpac 55%, BNZ 49%, ANZ 45% and TSB 34%
  • Net favourability for Govt agencies are Fire Service +86%, Police +57%, Customs +63%, DOC +57%, MAF +36%, MOD +31%, Nat Lib +44%, MFish +34%, IRD +5%, MOT +5%, NZFSA +19%, Min Ed -4%, Min Health -7%, Treasury -6%, MOJ – 14%, DOL – 5%, Corrections -27%, ACC -37%, MSD -13% and TPK -7%
  • Confidence in institutions is Police +30%, GPs +29%, Unis +27%, primary schools +26%, military +6%, small business +5%, sec schools +3%, TV News -10%, banks -13%, public health system -18%, courts -16%, public service -29%, newspapers -33%, religion -34%, Parliament -43%, big business -40%, unions -42%, media generally -55%
  • Party Vote Dec 2009 is Nat 48%, Lab 35%, Greens 7.5%
  • Net favourability for John Key +54%, Phil Goff +9%,
  • Top five issues are economy 33%, unemployment 14%, crime 11%, health care 4%, politics/govt 4%
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One News Colmar Brunton Poll November 2009

December 6, 2009

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 999 adults, of whom 822 are decided

Dates: 21 November to 25 November 2009

Client: One News

Report: TVNZ

Party Support

  • National 53.0% (-1.0%)
  • Labour 31.0% (-2.0%)
  • Green 7.0% (+2.7%)
  • ACT 2.2% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 3.4% (+0.7%)
  • United Future 0.6% (+0.4%)
  • Progressive 0.3% (-0.1%)
  • NZ First 1.0% (-0.7%)

Projected Seats

  • National 66
  • Labour 38
  • Green 8
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 66 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 70/122 – 7 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Progressive 1 + Greens 8 = 47/122 -15 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Economic Outlook

  • 68% economy over next 12 months will be better (-2.0%)
  • 16% same (nc)
  • 16% worse (+3.0%)
Preferred PM
  • John Key 54% (+4.0%)
  • Phil Goff 5% (-4%)
  • Helen Clark 3% (-1%)
MMP
  • Retain 54% (+7% over June 2008)
  • Not Retain 36% (-7%)
  • Don’t Know 10% (nc)
Preferred Electoral System
  • MMP 39%
  • FPP 33%
  • STV 12%
  • SM 2%
  • Don’t Know 14%
Hone Harawira
  • 77% say his comments were racist
  • 16% say they were not
  • 6% don’t know
  • 23% say he should remain an MP
  • 69% say he should go
  • 9% don’t know
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 35.2% 44
Labour 29.7% 37
Act 9.6% 12
Green 10.8% 14
NZ First 7.4% 9
Maori 3.1% 6
CR 51.2% 65
CL 44.1% 57
Total 97.9% 122
14/10/24
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