Archives: Economy

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,002 of whom 832 have a party preference

Undecideds: 12%

Dates: 10 to 14 October 2015

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

• National 47.0% (nc)
• Labour 31.0% (-1%)
• Green 12.0% (nc)
• NZ First 9.0% (+2%)
• Maori 0.8% (-0.4%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.2% (+0.1%)
• Mana 0.0% (-0.2%)
• Conservative 0.4% (+0.3%)

Projected Seats

• National 57
• Labour 38
• Green 14
• ACT 1
• Maori 1
• United Future 1
• NZ First 10
• Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/122 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 38 + Greens 14 = 52/122 – ten fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 10 + Maori 1 = 11/122

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

• John Key 40.0% (nc)
• Andrew Little 8.0% (-2%)
• Winston Peters 8.0% (+2%)
• Jacinda Ardern 3.0% (nc)

Economic Outlook

• Better 42% (+9%)
• Worse 33% (-12%)
• Same 25% (+3%)

Smoke free areas

• 53% support extending smoke free areas to outside areas of bars and restaurants
• 45% disagree

Contraception

• 70% say government should encourage contraception for mothers who have had multiple children placed into CYF care
• 24% disagree

Benefits in Australia

• 67% say NZ should restrict benefit eligibility for Australians, as Australia does for NZers

Australian Deportations

• 58% say NZ should deport Australians who have served prison sentences of 12 months or more

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,002 of whom 849 have a party preference

Undecideds: 11%

Dates: 29 August to 02 September 2015

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

• National 47.0% (nc)
• Labour 32.0% (nc)
• Green 12.0% (-1.0%)
• NZ First 7.0% (nc)
• Maori 1.2% (+0.8%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.1% (-0.3%)
• Mana 0.2% (-0.3%)
• Conservative 0.1% (+0.1%)

Projected Seats

• National 57
• Labour 39
• Green 14
• ACT 1
• Maori 1
• United Future 1
• NZ First 9
• Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/122 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 39 + Greens 14 = 53/122 – nine fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 9 + Maori 1 = 10/122

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

• John Key 40.0% (nc)
• Andrew Little 10.0% (+2.0%)
• Winston Peters 6.0% (-1.0%)
• Jacinda Ardern 3.0% (+1.0%)

Economic Outlook

• Better 33% (-3%)
• Worse 45% (+4%)
• Same 22% (-2%)

NZ Flag

• Change flag 28% (+2%)
• Keep flag 66% (+2%)
• Unsure 6% (-3%)

Foreign Investment in Sensitive Land

• Continue current approval process 37%
• Ban all foreign investment in sensitive land 54%

Private Prisons

• Should should be privately run 21%
• All should be run by Corrections 69%

TPP

• Should sign 24%
• Not sign 44%
• Don’t know 32%

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 of whom 856 have a party preference

Undecideds: 12%

Dates: 11 to 15 July 2015

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

• National 47.0% (-1.0%)
• Labour 32.0% (+1.0%)
• Green 13.0% (+3.0%)
• NZ First 7.0% (nc)
• Maori 0.4% (-1.1%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.4% (+0.3%)
• Mana 0.5% (+0.5%)
• Conservative 0.0% (-2.3%)

Projected Seats

• National 57
• Labour 39
• Green 16
• ACT 1
• Maori 1
• United Future 1
• NZ First 8
• Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/123 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 39 + Greens 16 = 55/123 – seven fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 8 + Maori 1 = 9/123

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

• John Key 40.0% (-4.0%)
• Andrew Little 8.0% (-1.0%)
• Winston Peters 7.0% (-2.0%)

Economic Outlook

• Better 36% (-9%)
• Worse 41% (+10%)
• Same 24% (nc)

Genetic Modification

• 44% support law change to allow NZ businesses to use some form of GM organisms
• 49% oppose

Refugees

• 53% support increasing quote from 750 to 1,000
• 44% opposed

Organ donation compensation

• 67% say organ donors should get compensation similar to ACC
• 22% say organ donors should get the sickness benefit

Euthanasia

• 75% support a terminally ill person being able to have a medical practitioner assist them to end their lives
• 21% opposed

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, of whom 859 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 9%

Dates: 11 April to 15 April 2015

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

• National 49.0% (nc)
• Labour 31.0% (nc)
• Green 9% (-1.0%)
• ACT 0.5% (+0.2%)
• Maori 0.8% (-0.8%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• Mana 1.1% (+0.7%)
• NZ First 7.0% (+1.0%)
• Conservative 1.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

• National 60
• Labour 38
• Green 11
• ACT 1
• Maori 1
• United Future 1
• NZ First 9
• Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 60 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 62/121 – one more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 38 + Greens 11 = 49/121 – 12 fewer than minimum needed to govern
• C – Maori 1 + NZ First 9 = 10/121

On this poll National could form a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

• John Key 42% (+1.0%)
• Andrew Little 11% (-1%)
• Winston Peters 10% (+3.0%)

Economic Direction

• Better 48% (-5%)
• Worse 28% (+4%)
• Same 24% (+1%)

Cannabis

• Remain illegal in all cases 25% (+4% from 2013)
• Illegal but an be prescribed for pain relief by doctors 36% (-11%)
• Should be decriminalised 32% (+11%)
• Should be legalised 7% (-2%)

Zero hour contracts

• Should be illegal 77%
• Not illegal 19%

David Bain

• Should be paid compensation 69%
• No compensation 19%

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, of whom 843 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 12%

Dates: 23 to 27 August 2014

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

• National 48.0% (-2.0%)
• Labour 28.0% (+2.0%
• Green 12.0% (+1.0%)
• ACT 0.4% (+1.0%)
• Maori 0.6% (-0.3%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• Mana/Internet 1.6% (-2.3%)
• NZ First 6.0% (+1.0%)
• Conservative 3.2% (+0.8%)

Projected Seats

• National 59
• Labour 35
• Green 14
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana/Internet 2
• NZ First 8
• Conservative 0
• Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/123 – one fewer than minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 35 + Greens 14 + Mana/Internet 2 = 51/123 – 11 fewer than minimum needed to govern
• C – Maori 3 + NZ First 8 = 11/124

On this poll National could form a centre-right Governmentwith either the Maori Party or NZ First. Labour could form a Government with both NZ First and Maori Party (and Greens and Internet Mana).

Preferred PM

• John Key 47% (+2.0%)
• David Cunliffe 12% (+2%)
• Winston Peters 5% (+1.0%)

Economic Outlook

• Better 56% (+8%)
• Worse 19% (-3%)
• Same 25% (-5%)

Hager book

• Believe allegations 41% (+13%)
• Not believe 35% (-8%)
• Unsure 24% (-5%)
• Net negatively influenced view of National 13% (+8%)
• Collins should stand down 61% agree, 26% disagree
• Key informed of SIS OIA released – 41% believe he was not, 44% do not believe him

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,011 respondents of whom 849 had a party vote preference

Undecideds: Dates: 18 to 22 May 2013

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

• National 49.0% (+6.0%)
• Labour 33.0% (-3.0%)
• Green 9.0% (-4.0%)
• ACT 0.3% (+0.2%)
• Maori 1.3% (nc)
• United Future 0.7% (-0.3%)
• Mana 1.2% (+1.1%)
• NZ First 3.6% (+0.6%)
• Conservative 1.7% (nc)

Projected Seats

• National 62
• Labour 42
• Green 11
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 2
• NZ First 0
• Conservative 0
• Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 62 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 64/122 – two more than minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 42 + Greens 11 + Mana 2= 55/122 – seven fewer than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

• John Key 42% (+3.0%)
• David Shearer 12% (-3.0%)
• Winston Peters 4% (+1%)

Economic Outlook

• Better 55% (+5%)
• Same 19% (nc)
• Worse 26% (-5%)

Food in Schools

• 70% support the Government providing food to children at low decile schools
• 26% against

Budget 2013

• Personally better off 6% (+3% from 2012)
• About the same 70% (+2%)
• Worse off 13% (-9%)

Affordable Housing

• 30% say Govt doing enough to keep housing affordable
• 62% say not enough

Electricity

• 57% support Labour/Green policy
• 37% oppose

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,009 respondents of whom 835 had a voting preference

Undecideds: Dates: 13 to 17 April 2013

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

• National 43.0% (-6.0%)
• Labour 36.0% (+3.0%)
• Green 13.0% (+2.0%)
• ACT 0.1% (nc)
• Maori 1.3% (+0.3)
• United Future 1.0% (+0.8%)
• Mana 0.1% (-0.4%)
• NZ First 3.0% (-0.9%)
• Conservative 1.7% (+0.8%)

Projected Seats

• National 55
• Labour 46
• Green 16
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Conservative 0
• Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 55 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 57/123 – five fewer than minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 46 + Greens 16 + Mana 1= 63/123 – one more than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

• John Key 39% (-5.0%)
• David Shearer 15% (nc)
• Winston Peters 3% (-2%)

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,026 respondents of whom 875 have a voting preference

Undecideds: 10%

Dates: 9 to 13 February 2013

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

• National 49.0% (+5.0%)
• Labour 33.0% (-2.0%)
• Green 11.0% (-1.0%)
• ACT 0.1% (-0.5%)
• Maori 1.0% (+0.3%)
• United Future 0.2% (-0.3%)
• Mana 0.5% (+0.2%)
• NZ First 3.9% (+0.3%)
• Conservative 0.9% (-0.4%)

Projected Seats

• National 62
• Labour 42
• Green 14
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Conservative 0
• Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 62 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 64/124 – 1 more than minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 42 + Greens 14 + Mana 1= 57/121 -6 fewer than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

• John Key 44% (+5.0%)
• David Shearer 15% (nc)
• Winston Peters 5% (-1%)

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,009 of whom 856 had a party vote preference

Undecideds: 11%

Dates: 27 October to 31 October 2012

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

• National 45.0% (nc)
• Labour 32.0% (-2.0%)
• Green 12.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.6% (-0.3%)
• Maori 2.2% (-0.7%)
• United Future 0.2% (+0.1%)
• Mana 1.0% (+0.4%)
• NZ First 4.9% (+3.1%)
• Conservative 1.0% (-1.0%)

Projected Seats

• National 58
• Labour 41
• Green 16
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Conservative 0
• Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/121 – 1 less than minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 41 + Greens 16 + Mana 1= 58/121 -3 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

• John Key 42% (-2%)
• David Shearer 11% (-1%)
• Winston Peters 6% (+2%)
• Russel Norman 3% (+1%)

Economic Outlook

• Better 44% (+3%)
• Worse 34% (-2%)
• Same 22% (-1%)

Partial Asset Sales

• Support 30% (+2%)
• Oppose 64% (-1%)
• Unsure 6% (-1%)