Archives: Economy

One News Colmar Brunton poll May 2018

June 18, 2018

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone – 50/50 landline and mobile

Poll Size: 1,007 voters of whom 839 have a party vote preference

Undecideds: 13%

Dates:  19 to 23 May 2018

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 45.0% (+1%)
  • Labour 43.0% (nc)
  • Green 5.0% (-1%)
  • NZ First 4.2% (-0.8%)
  • Maori 0.9% (-0.3%)
  • ACT 0.7% (+0.4%)
  • Opportunities 0.5% (+0.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 58
  • Labour 55
  • Green 6
  • ACT 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 120

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 58 + ACT 1 = 59/120 – two fewer the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 55 + Greens 6 = 61/120 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0= 0/120

On this poll there would be a Labour/Green Government

Preferred PM

  • Simon Bridges 12.0% (+2%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 41% (+4%)
  • Winston Peters 4% (-1%)
  • Judith Collins 2% (nc)
 Economic Outlook
  • Better 40% (+3%)
  • Same 25% (-4%)
  • Worse 35 (+1%)

Government’s management of Budget

  • Better than expected 9%
  • Same as expected 56%
  • Worse than expected 11%

Government management of M Bovis outbreak

  • Good 14%
  • Okay 42%
  • Poor 24%

Increase in fuel tax

  • Support 36%
  • Oppose 585

Winston Peters as Acting PM will do

  • Good job 32% (-2%)
  • Okay job 53% (+3%)
  • Bad job 11% (nc)
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One News Colmar Brunton poll April 2018

May 15, 2018

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone – 50/50 landline and mobile

Poll Size: 1,007 voters of whom 861 have a party vote preference

Undecideds: 12%

Dates:  7 to 11 April 2018

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 44.0% (+1%)
  • Labour 43.0% (-5%)
  • Green 6.0% (+1%)
  • NZ First 5.0% (+2.4%)
  • Maori 1.2% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 0.3% (-0.2%)
  • Opportunities 0.4% (-0.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 54
  • Labour 52
  • Green 8
  • ACT 1
  • NZ First 6
  • Total 121

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 54 + ACT 1 = 55/121 – six fewer the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 52 + Greens 8 = 60/121 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 6= 6/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power

Preferred PM

  • Simon Bridges 10.0% (+9%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 37% (-4%)
  • Winston Peters 5% (+1%)
 Economic Outlook
  • Better 37% (nc)
  • Same 29% (-1%)
  • Worse 34 (+1%)

PM’s management of recent events

  • Good 35%
  • Okay 50%
  • Bad 11%

Impact of parenthood on PM’s performance

  • Better 15%
  • Worse 18%
  • No difference 59%

Value in NZ remaining in the Commonwealth

  • Yes 80%
  • No 12%

Top priorities for Budget spending

  • Health 22%
  • Education 13%
  • Housing 10%
  • Public health 8%
  • Roads 7%
  • Poverty 6%
  • Mental Health 4%
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One News Colmar Brunton poll February 2018

March 19, 2018

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone – 50/50 landline and mobile

Poll Size: 1,007 voters of whom 822 have a party vote preference

Undecideds: 13%

Dates: 10 to 14 February 2018

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 43.0% (-3%)
  • Labour 48.0% (+9%)
  • Green 5.0% (-2%)
  • NZ First 2.6% (-2.4%)
  • Maori 0.7% (-0.2%)
  • ACT 0.5% (+0.4%)
  • Opportunities 0.6% (-0.6%)

Projected Seats

  • National 54
  • Labour 59
  • Green 6
  • ACT 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 120

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 54 + ACT 1 = 55/120 – six fewer the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 69 + Greens 6 = 65/120 – four more than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0= 0/121

On this poll there would be a Labour/Green Government.

Preferred PM

  • Bill English 20.0% (-8%) (taken partly after resignation announced)
  • Jacinda Ardern 41% (+4%)
  • Winston Peters 4% (-1%)
 Economic Outlook
  • Better 37% (+1%)
  • Same 30% (+2%)
  • Worse 33 (-3%)
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One News Colmar Brunton poll early August 2017

August 17, 2017

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,007 voters of whom 834 have a party vote preference

Undecideds: 13%

Dates: 12 August to 16 August 2017

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 44.0% (-3.0%)
  • Labour 37.0% (+13.0%)
  • Green 4.3.0% (-10.7%)
  • NZ First 10.0% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 2.1% (+0.6%)
  • ACT 0.4% (+0.1%)
  • Opportunities 2.1% (+0.6%)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 49
  • Green 0
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • NZ First 12
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats except Ohariu going to Labour.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 57 + ACT 1 = 58/121 – three fewer the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 49 + Greens 0 = 49/121 – 12 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 12 + Maori 2 = 14/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • Bill English 30.0% (+2%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 30% (+24%)
  • Winston Peters 7% (-3%)
Economy
  • Better 55% (+7%)
  • Same 31% (+2%)
  • Worse 14% (-8%)
Water Tax
  • Support 59%
  • Oppose 32%

Increase tax rate for those earning over $150,000

  • Support 63%
  • Oppose 30%
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One News Colmar Brunton poll July 2017

July 10, 2017

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,007 voters of whom around 789 have a party vote preference

Undecideds: 15%

Dates: 1 July to 5 July 2017

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 47.0% (-2.0%)
  • Labour 27.0% (-3.0%)
  • Green 11.0% (+2.0%)
  • NZ First 11.0% (+2.0%)
  • Maori 1.8% (+1.2%)
  • United Future 0.2% (+0.2%)
  • ACT 0.3% (-0.2%)
  • Mana 0.3% (+0.3%)
  • Conservative 0.1% (+0.1%)
  • Opportunities 1.1% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 33
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 14
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/122 – three fewer the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 14 = 47/122 – 15 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 14 + Maori 2 = 16/122

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • Bill English 26.0% (-3%)
  • Andrew Little 5% (-3%)
  • Winston Peters 11% (+4%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 6% (nc)

Economic Outlook

  • Better 47% (-3%)
  • Worse 22% (nc)
  • Same 32% (+5%)

Euthanasia

Do you think a person who is terminally or incurably ill should be able to request the assistance of a doctor to end their life?”

  • Yes 74%
  • No 18%

America’s Cup

“Should the Government contribute taxpayer money to the next America’s Cup campaign?”

  • Yes 47%
  • No 34%

Cannabis

“It has been suggested that the sale of cannabis should be legalised. Its cultivation and sale would be
regulated. Do you support or oppose this idea?

  • Support 47%
  • Oppose 41%

Plastic Bag levy

“It has been suggested that New Zealand stores should charge consumers for plastic bags. The charge would
be 15 cents per bag. The purpose of the charge is to reduce the impact of plastic bags on the environment,
including animals and marine life. The money raised from the charge would go towards organisations who aim
to reduce waste.
Do you think introducing a charge for plastic bags is…?”

  • A good idea 82%
  • A bad idea 15%
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One News Colmar Brunton poll March 2017

March 28, 2017

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 voters

Undecideds:

Dates: 18 March to 22 March 2017

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 46.0% (nc)
  • Labour 30.0% (nc)
  • Green 11.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 8.0% (-3.0%)
  • Maori 4.0% (+3.3%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.3%)
  • ACT 0.4% (-0.4%)
  • Mana 0.2% (-0.6%)
  • Conservative 0.3% (+0.1%)
  • Opportunities 0.4% (+0.4%)

Projected Seats

  • National 56
  • Labour 36
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 9
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 56 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 58/122 – four fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 14 = 50/122 – 12 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 9 + Maori 5 = 14/122

On this poll the Maori Party would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • Bill English 26.0% (-5%)
  • Andrew Little 7% (nc)
  • Winston Peters 9% (+1%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 9% (+5%)

Economic Outlook

  • Better 46% (-2%)
  • Same 28% (-2%)
  • Worse 26% (+4%)

Superannuation

  • Support increase in eligibility age to 67 – 52%
  • Opposed 40%

Freedom Camping

  • 69% think more needs to be done to control behaviour of freedom campers
  • 23% disagree

Vaccinations

  • 48% support banning unvaccinated children from early childhood centres
  • 43% disagree
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One News Colmar Brunton poll February 2017

February 20, 2017

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,003 voters of whom 808 have a voting preference

Undecideds: 15%

Dates: 11 February to 15 February 2017

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 46.0% (-4%)
  • Labour 30.0% (+2%)
  • Green 11.0% (-2.0%)
  • NZ First 11.0% (+1.0%)
  • Maori 0.7% (-0.3%)
  • United Future 0.3% (+0.3%)
  • ACT 0.8% (+0.8%)
  • Mana 0.8% (+0.8)
  • Conservative 0.2% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 56
  • Labour 36
  • Green 13
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 13
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 56 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 58/121 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 13 = 49/121 – 12 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 13 + Maori 1 = 14/122

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • Bill English 31.0% (-5% from Key)
  • Andrew Little 7% (-1%)
  • Winston Peters 8% (nc)
  • Jacinda Ardern 4% (+3%)

Economic Outlook

  • Better 48% (+5%)
  • Worse 22% (-11%)
  • Same 30% (+6%)

Influential Issues

  • Housing 27%
  • Education 20%
  • Economy 16%
  • Health 15%
  • Environment 9%
  • Immigration 9%
  • Child Poverty 5%
  • Jobs 5%
  • Crime 4%

Most Important Issue

  • Housing 16%
  • Economy 11%
  • Health 8%
  • Education 7%
  • Immigration 6%
  • Environment 5%

Summer Holidays shift to February

  • Support 32%
  • Oppose 52%

Waitangi Day

  • Govt continue to attend at Waitangi 61%
  • Stop attending 31%
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One News Colmar Brunton poll November 2016

November 27, 2016

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,010 voters of whom 839 have a party preference

Undecideds: 16%

Dates: 12 November to 23 November 2016

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 50.0% (+2%)
  • Labour 28.0% (+2%)
  • Green 11.0% (-2.0%)
  • NZ First 10.0% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 1.0% (-0.8%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • Mana 0.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 0.2% (-0.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 34
  • Green 13
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 12
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 60 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 62/122 – the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 34 + Greens 13 = 47/122 – 15 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 12 + Maori 1 = 13/122

On this poll National could govern with ACT and United Future.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 36.0% (-2%)
  • Andrew Little 8% (-2%)
  • Winston Peters 8% (-3%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 1.0% (nc)

Economic Outlook

  • Better 43% (-2%)
  • Same 24% (nc)
  • Worse 33% (+2%)

Foreign property tax

  • Support a 15% tax on foreign house buyers in Auckland 75%
  • Oppose 18%

Plastic bag levy

  • Support a 15c per bag levy 78%
  • Oppose 19%

Surplus 2016

  • Increase spending 48%
  • Reduce debt 31%
  • Reduce taxes 17%
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One News Colmar Brunton poll September 2016

September 12, 2016

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,013 voters of whom 845 have a party preference

Undecideds: 13%

Dates: 03 September to 09 September 2016

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 48.0% (nc)
  • Labour 26.0% (-3%)
  • Green 13.0% (+1.0%)
  • NZ First 11.0% (+2.0%)
  • Maori 1.8% (+1.1%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (+0.2%)
  • Mana 0.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 0.3% (-0.4%)

Projected Seats

  • National 58
  • Labour 31
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 13
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/121 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 31 + Greens 15 = 46/121 – 15 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 13 + Maori 2 = 15/122

On this poll National (plus ACT and United) could govern with the Maori Party.  Labour could govern with Greens, NZ First and Maori Party. The Maori Party would hold the effective balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 38.0% (-1%)
  • Andrew Little 10% (+3%)
  • Winston Peters 11% (-1%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 1.0% (nc)

 

Economy

  • Better 45% (+3%)
  • Worse 31% (-5%)

Immigration

  • Fewer migrants 38% (+11% from April)
  • Current numbers rights 44% (-7%)
  • More migrants 13% (-5%)

Housing

  • 53% say Government should take more action even if it reduces house values
  • 31% say more should be done but only if house values do not shrink
  • 11% say no more action needed
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One News Colmar Brunton poll April 2016

April 10, 2016

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,011 voters of whom 841 have a party preference

Undecideds: 13%

Dates: 2 to 6 April 2016

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

  • National 50.0% (+3%)
  • Labour 28.0% (-4%)
  • Green 10.0% (+2.0%)
  • NZ First 9.0% (-1%)
  • Maori 1.1% (nc)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.7% (+0.4%)
  • Mana 0.0% (-0.3%)
  • Conservative 0.3% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 61
  • Labour 34
  • Green 11
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 11
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 61 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 63/121 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 34 + Greens 11 = 45/121 – 16 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 11 + Maori 1 = 12/121

On this poll National could govern alone.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 39.0% (-1)
  • Andrew Little 7.0% (-2%)
  • Winston Peters 10.0% (+1%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 2.0% (nc)

Economic Outlook

  • Better 43% (+5%)
  • Worse 33% (-6%)
  • Same 24% (+1%)

Sugar Tax

  • 66% support a tax on soda drinks with sugar
  • 29% oppose

Universal Basic Income (UBI)

  • Support 32%
  • Oppose 49%

Medical Marijuana (cannabis)

  • Support 73%
  • Oppose 21%

Immigration Levels

  • More migrants 18%
  • Fewer migrants 27%
  • About right level 51%

 

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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 35.2% 44
Labour 29.7% 37
Act 9.6% 12
Green 10.8% 14
NZ First 7.4% 9
Maori 3.1% 6
CR 51.2% 65
CL 44.1% 57
Total 97.9% 122
14/10/24
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