Archives: David Bain

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 of whom 828 have a party preference

Undecideds: 17.2%

Dates: 10 February 2013 to 14 February 2013

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 44.9% (-1.3%)
  • Labour 36.3% (+1.9%)
  • Green 10.7% (+0.2%)
  • NZ First 2.8% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 1.3% (-0.1%)
  • United Future 0.1% (-0.1%)
  • ACT 0.4% (+0.4%)
  • Mana 1.4% (+0.8%)
  • Conservative 1.6% (+0.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 46
  • Green 13
  • ACT 0
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 2
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats, except for National winning Epsom.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 57 + United Future 1 = 58/122 – four fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 46 + Greens 13 + Mana 2 = 61/122 – one fewerthan the minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Should Hekia Parata be removed from Education

  • Yes 60%
  • No 22%
  • Don’t Know 18%

Was David Bain wrongfully imprisoned?

  • Yes 40%
  • No 28%
  • Unsure 32%

Should David Bain get compensation?

  • Yes 60%
Overall on Bain
  • wrongfully jailed and deserves compensation 36%
  • not wrongfully imprisoned and deserves nothing 22%
  • mixed views about imprisonment and compensation 10%
  • unsure 33%

UMR on David Bain

July 26, 2009

UMR polled 750 NZers in June on David Bain.

In early June a net 39% thought he was not guilty. By late June this dropped to 16%.

Of the 47% who think Bain is not guilty, 79% support compensation of $1.5 million.

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