Archives: Country Direction

Roy Morgan poll early March 2014

March 7, 2014

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 977 of whom 943 have a party preference

Undecideds: 3.5%

Dates: 17 February to 02 March 2014

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 48.5% (+0.5%)
  • Labour 30.5% (+0.5%)
  • Green 10.5% (-1.5%)
  • NZ First 4.5% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 1.5% (+1.0%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (nc)
  • Mana 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Conservative 2.5% (+1.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 62
  • Labour 39
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 62 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 64/121 – three more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 39 + Greens 14 + Mana 1 = 54/121 – seven fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/121

On this poll a centre-right Government would be formed.

Country Direction

  • Right 65.0% (+1.5%)
  • Wrong 23.5% (nc)
  • Can’t Say 11.5% (-1.5%)
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Roy Morgan poll mid February 2014

February 20, 2014

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 859 of whom 825 have a party preference

Undecideds: 4.0%

Dates: 03 February to 16 February 2014

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 48.0% (+1.0%)
  • Labour 30.0% (-3.0%)
  • Green 12.0% (+1.0%)
  • NZ First 5.5% (+1.0%)
  • Maori 0.5% (-1.0%)
  • United Future 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 1.0% (+1.0%)
  • Mana 1.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 1.0% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 58
  • Labour 36
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/122 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 15 + Mana 1 = 52/123 – ten fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 3 = 7/123

On this poll a centre-right Government could be formed with the Maori Party or NZ First. A centre-left Government would need both the Maori Party and NZ First.

Country Direction

  • Right 63.5% (nc)
  • Wrong 23.5% (-1.0%)
  • Can’t Say 13.0% (+1.0%)
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Fairfax Ipsos poll Feb 2014

February 15, 2014

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,018 of whom 845 have a party preference

Undecideds: 17%

Dates: 10 February to 12 February 2014

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 49.4% (-0.8%)
  • Labour 31.8% (-1.8%)
  • Green 10.0% (-0.7%)
  • NZ First 3.6% (+1.3%)
  • Maori 1.1% (+0.4%)
  • United Future 0.1% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (+0.4%)
  • Mana0.3% (-0.4%)
  • Conservative 2.1% (+1.4%)

Projected Seats

  • National 64
  • Labour 41
  • Green 13
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 64 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 66/124 – three more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 41 + Greens 13 + Mana 1 = 55/124 – eight fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/124

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

Country Direction

  • Right 63.7% (+4.2%)
  • Wrong 35.6% (-4.9%)

Government Rating

  • 5.8/10 (+0.2)

Time for a change

  • Yes 47.3% (-2.8%)
  • No 48.0% (+4.9%)

Baby Bonus

  • Support 48.5%
  • Oppose 48.1%

Raise Taxes

  • Support 25.2%
  • Oppose 69.4%
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Roy Morgan poll early Feb 2014

February 15, 2014

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 846 of whom 812 have a party preference

Undecideds: 4.0%

Dates: 20 January to 02 February 2014

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 47.0% (+3.5%)
  • Labour 33.0% (-0.5%)
  • Green 11.0% (-1.5%)
  • NZ First 4.5% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 0.0% (nc)
  • Mana 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Conservative 1.5% (-1.01.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 61
  • Labour 42
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 61 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 63/123 – one more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 42 + Greens 14 + Mana 1 = 57/123 – five fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/123

On this poll there would be a centre-right Government,

Country Direction

  • Right 63.5% (+0.5%)
  • Wrong 24.5% (+1.0%)
  • Can’t Say 12.0% (-1.5%)
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Roy Morgan poll mid January 2014

February 3, 2014

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,509 of whom 1,449 have a party preference

Undecideds: 4.0%

Dates: 06 January to 19 January 2014

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 43.5% (-1.5%)
  • Labour 33.5% (+3.0%)
  • Green 12.5% (-2.0%)
  • NZ First 4.0% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 2.0% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 0.0% (nc)
  • Mana 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Conservative 2.5% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 56
  • Labour 43
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 56 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 58/121 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 43 + Greens 16 + Mana 1 = 60/121 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/122

On this poll the Maori Party would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 63.0% (+4.5%)
  • Wrong 23.5% (-5.0%)
  • Can’t Say 13.5% (+0.5%)
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Fairfax Ipsos poll October 2013

October 28, 2013

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,030 of whom 815 have a party preference

Undecideds: 21.9%

Dates: 19 October 2013 to 23 October 2013

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 50.2% (+1.9%)
  • Labour 33.6% (+2.0%)
  • Green 10.7% (-1.6%)
  • NZ First 2.3% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 0.7% (-0.3%)
  • United Future 0.1% (nc)
  • ACT 0.1% (-0.1%)
  • Mana 0.7% (+0.2%)
  • Conservative 0.7% (-0.7%)

Projected Seats

  • National 63
  • Labour 43
  • Green 12
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 63 + ACT1 + United Future 1 = 65/124 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 42 + Greens 11 + Mana 1 = 56/124 – seven fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/125

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

Country Direction

  • Right 59.5% (+1.2%)
  • Wrong 40.5% (-1.2%)

Government Rating

  • 5.6/10 (+0.4)

Time for a change

  • Yes 50.1% (+1.5%)
  • No 43.1% (+0.4%)

Leader Attributes:

  • Strong and effective PM – Key +25.2%
  • Trust on economy – Key +20.6%
  • Stable & united Government Key +19.5%
  • Create fair society – Cunliffe +3.3%
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Roy Morgan poll early October 2013

October 28, 2013

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 839 of whom 801 have a party preference

Undecideds: 4.5%

Dates: 30 September 2013 to 13 October 2013

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 41.5% (-0.5%)
  • Labour 37.0% (nc)
  • Green 12.5% (+1.0%)
  • NZ First 5.0% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • Mana 0.5% (nc)
  • Conservative 0.5% (-1.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 50
  • Labour 44
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 6
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 50 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 52/121 – nine fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 44 + Greens 15 + Mana 1 = 60/121 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 6 + Maori 3 = 9/122

On this poll NZ First could form a CL Government or NZ First and Maori Party could form a CR Government.

Country Direction

  • Right 55.0% (-4.0%)
  • Wrong 31.0% (+1.5%)
  • Can’t Say 14.0% (+2.5%)
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Roy Morgan poll late September 2013

October 27, 2013

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 934 of whom 887 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.0%

Dates: 16 September 2013 to 29 September 2013

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 42.0% (+1.0%)
  • Labour 37.0% (+4.5%)
  • Green 11.5% (-3.5%)
  • NZ First 4.5% (-2.0%)
  • Maori 1.0% (nc)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Mana 0.5% (nc)
  • Conservative 2.0% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 54
  • Labour 47
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 54 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 56/122 – six fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 47 + Greens 15 + Mana 1 = 63/122 – one more than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/122

On this poll Labour could form a CL Government.

Country Direction

  • Right 59.0% (+6.5%)
  • Wrong 29.5% (-6.0%)
  • Can’t Say 11.5% (-0.5%)
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Roy Morgan poll early September 2013

September 22, 2013

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 828 of whom 778 have a party preference

Undecideds: 6.0%

Dates: 26 August 2013 to 08 September 2013

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 41.0% (-3.0%)
  • Labour 32.5% (+1.0%)
  • Green 15.0% (+1.0%)
  • NZ First 6.5% (+1.0%)
  • Maori 1.0% (-1.0%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Mana 0.5% (nc)
  • Conservative 1.5% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 5040
  • Labour 40
  • Green 18
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 8
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 50 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 52/122 – ten fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 40 + Greens 18 + Mana 1 = 59/122 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 8 + Maori 3 = 11/122

On this poll NZ First could form a CL Government or NZ First and Maori Party could form a CR Government.

Country Direction

  • Right 52.5% (-5.5%)
  • Wrong 35.5% (+5.0%)
  • Can’t Say 12.0% (+0.5%)
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Roy Morgan poll late August 2013

September 3, 2013

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 819 of whom 778 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.0%

Dates: 12 August 2013 to 25 August 2013

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 44.0% (nc)
  • Labour 31.5% (-2.5%)
  • Green 14.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 5.5% (+2.5%)
  • Maori 2.0% (nc)
  • United Future 0.5% (+0.5)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • Mana 0.5% (nc)
  • Conservative 1.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 53
  • Labour 38
  • Green 17
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 53 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 55/121 – six fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 17 + Mana 1 = 56/121 – five fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 3 = 10/121

On this poll there NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 58.0% (nc)
  • Wrong 30.5% (+0.5)
  • Can’t Say 11.5% (-0.5%)
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 35.2% 44
Labour 29.7% 37
Act 9.6% 12
Green 10.8% 14
NZ First 7.4% 9
Maori 3.1% 6
CR 51.2% 65
CL 44.1% 57
Total 97.9% 122
14/10/24
Embed | Methodology

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