Archives: Country Direction

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 861 of whom 792 have a party preference

Undecideds: 8.0%

Dates: early March to 13 March 2016

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

• National 46.0% (-2.5%)
• Labour 28.0% (+1.0%)
• Green 14.0% (-0.5%)
• NZ First 9.0% (+3.0%)
• Maori 1.0% (nc)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 1.0% (+0.5%)
• Mana/Internet 0.5% (nc)
• Conservative 0.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

• National 56
• Labour 34
• Green 17
• ACT 1
• Maori 1
• United Future 1
• NZ First 11
• Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 56 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 58/121 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 34 + Greens 17 = 51/121 – 10 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 11 + Maori 1 = 12/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

• Right 56.5% (-3.0%)
• Wrong 28.5% (+0.5%)
• Can’t Say 15.0% (+2.5%)

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 896 of whom 833 have a party preference

Undecideds: 7.0%

Dates: early February to 14 January 2016

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

• National 48.5% (+1.5%)
• Labour 27.0% (-0.5%)
• Green 14.5% (+0.5%)
• NZ First 6.0% (-0.5%)
• Maori 1.0% (-2.0%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.5% (nc)
• Mana/Internet 0.5% (+0.5%)
• Conservative 1.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

• National 60
• Labour 33
• Green 18
• ACT 1
• Maori 11
• United Future 1
• NZ First 7
• Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 60 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 62/121 – one more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 33 + Greens 18 = 51/121 – 10 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 7 + Maori 1 = 8/121

On this poll National could form a CR Government with either ACT or United Future.

Country Direction

• Right 56.5% (-3.0%)
• Wrong 28.5% (+0.5%)
• Can’t Say 15.0% (+2.5%)

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 876 of whom 819 have a party preference

Undecideds: 6.5%

Dates: early January to 17 January 2016

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

• National 47.0% (-2.0%)
• Labour 27.5% (-1.0%)
• Green 14.0% (+1.0%)
• NZ First 6.5% (+0.5%)
• Maori 3.0% (+1.5%)
• United Future 0.0% (-0.5%)
• ACT 0.5% (nc)
• Mana/Internet 0.0% (nc)
• Conservative 1.0% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

• National 57
• Labour 33
• Green 17
• ACT 1
• Maori 4
• United Future 1
• NZ First8
• Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/121 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 33 + Greens 17 = 50/121 – 11 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 8 + Maori 4 = 12/121

On this poll the Maori Party would hold the balance of power as both CR and CL would need them to form a Government. The CL would need NZ First also.

Country Direction

• Right 59.5% (nc)
• Wrong 28.0% (-3.0)
• Can’t Say 12.5% (+3.0%)

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 882 of whom 811 have a party preference

Undecideds: 8.0%

Dates: early December to 06 December 2015

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

• National 49.0% (nc)
• Labour 28.5% (-1.0%)
• Green 13.0% (+1.0%)
• NZ First 6.0% (nc)
• Maori 1.5% (-0.5%)
• United Future 0.5% (+0.5%)
• ACT 0.5% (nc)
• Mana/Internet 0.0% (-0.5%)
• Conservative 0.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

• National 59
• Labour 33
• Green 16
• ACT 1
• Maori 2
• United Future 1
• NZ First 7
• Total 120

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/120 – the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 33 + Greens 16 = 50/120 – 11 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 7 + Maori 2 = 9/120

On this poll National could govern with ACT and United Future.

Country Direction

• Right 59.5% (-0.5%)
• Wrong 31.0% (+2.5%)
• Can’t Say 9.5% (-2.0%)

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 862 of whom 806 have a party preference

Undecideds: 6.5%

Dates: early November to 08 November 2015

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

• National 49.0% (-1.0%)
• Labour 29.5% (+0.5%)
• Green 12.0% (+0.5%)
• NZ First 6.0% (-0.5%)
• Maori 2.0% (+1.5%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.5% (nc)
• Mana/Internet 0.5% (nc)
• Conservative 0.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

• National 59
• Labour 36
• Green 15
• ACT 1
• Maori 2
• United Future 1
• NZ First 7
• Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/121 – the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 36 + Greens 15 = 51/121 – 10 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 7 + Maori 2 = 9/121

On this poll National could govern with ACT and United Future.

Country Direction

• Right 60.0% (+7.0%)
• Wrong 28.5% (-2.5%)
• Can’t Say 11.5% (-4.5%)

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 882 of whom 820 have a party preference

Undecideds: 7.0%

Dates: early October to 11 October 2015

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

• National 50.0% (+5.5%)
• Labour 29.0% (-2.0%)
• Green 11.5% (-3.5%)
• NZ First 6.5% (+1.0%)
• Maori 0.5% (-1.0%)
• United Future 0.0% (-0.5%)
• ACT 0.5% (nc)
• Mana/Internet 0.5% (+0.5%)
• Conservative 0.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

• National 61
• Labour 35
• Green 14
• ACT 1
• Maori 1
• United Future 1
• NZ First 8
• Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 61 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 63/121 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 35 + Greens 14 = 49/121 – 12 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 8 + Maori 1 = 9/121

On this poll National could govern alone.

Country Direction

• Right 53.0% (-5.0%)
• Wrong 31.0% (+1.5%)
• Can’t Say 16.0% (+3.5%)

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 876 of whom 806 have a party preference

Undecideds: 8.0%

Dates: early August to 13 September 2015

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

• National 44.5% (-6.0%)
• Labour 31.0% (+4.0%)
• Green 15.0% (+4.0%)
• NZ First 5.5% (-2.5%)
• Maori 1.5% (nc)
• United Future 0.5% (+0.5%)
• ACT 0.5% (nc)
• Mana/Internet 0.5% (+0.5%)
• Conservative 1.0% (+1.0%)

Projected Seats

• National 54
• Labour 37
• Green 18
• ACT 1
• Maori 2
• United Future 1
• NZ First 7
• Total 120

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 54 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 56/121 – five fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 37 + Greens 18 = 55/121 – six fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 7 + Maori 2 = 12/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

• Right 58.0% (+4.0%)
• Wrong 29.5% (-4.5%)
• Can’t Say 12.5% (+0.5%)

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Subscriber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 750 of whom 660 have a party preference

Undecideds: 12%

Dates: 14 August to 24 August 2015

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

• National 50.8% (-0.2%)
• Labour 31.0% (+2.3%)
• Green 9.2% (-1.6%)
• NZ First 6.9% (+0.8%)
• Maori 0.2% (-0.6%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.2% (-0.6%)
• Mana/Internet 0.2% (+0.2%)
• Conservative 0.6% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

• National 62
• Labour 38
• Green 11
• ACT 1
• Maori 1
• United Future 1
• NZ First 8
• Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 62 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 64/122 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 38 + Greens 11 = 49/122 – 13 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 8 + Maori 1 = 9/122

On this poll National would be able to govern alone.

Preferred PM

• John Key 63.7% (-0.9%)
• Andrew Little 13.3% (-0.6%)
• Winston Peters 11.6% (-0.4%)
• Jacinda Ardern 3.9% (+3.4%)

Country Direction

• Right 50.9% (-4.4%)
• Wrong 40.9% (+4.9%)

Next National Leader

• Bill English 30.3%
• Steven Joyce 14.2%
• Paula Bennett 11.4%
• Simon Bridges 7.2%

Next Labour Leader

• Annette King 21.8%
• Jacinda Ardern 20.1%
• Grant Robertson 18.0%
• Phil Twyford 4.0%

Private Prisons

• 57% say prisons should always be run by the state
• 38% say there is a place for well-run private companies operating prisons.

Foreign House Buyers

• 32% support a ban on foreigners buying houses
• 20% oppose a ban
• 42% would support a ban if there is evidence foreign buyers are pushing prices up

NZ Flag

• 53% against change in principle
• 23% support change in principle
• 24% depends on alternative designs

TPP

• 30% oppose TPP
• 20% support TPP
• 45% not know enough to have a view

Iraq

• 59% support the deployment of troops to do training (+2%)
• 34% oppose

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 892 of whom 843 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.5%

Dates: early August to 16 August 2015

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

• National 50.5% (+7.5%)
• Labour 27.0% (-5.0%)
• Green 11.0% (-2.0%)
• NZ First 8.0% (+1.0%)
• Maori 1.5% (nc)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.5% (nc)
• Mana/Internet 0.5% (+0.5%)
• Conservative 0.0% (-1.5%)

Projected Seats

• National 61
• Labour 33
• Green 13
• ACT 1
• Maori 2
• United Future 1
• NZ First 10
• Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 61 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 63/121 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 33 + Greens 13 = 46/121 – 15 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 10 + Maori 2 = 12/121

On this poll National would be able to govern alone.

Country Direction

• Right 54.0% (+3.0%)
• Wrong 34.0% (+1.0%)
• Can’t Say 12.0% (-4.0%)

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 886 of whom 837 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.5%

Dates: 29 June to 12 July 2015

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

• National 43.0% (-6.5%)
• Labour 32.0% (+6.0%)
• Green 13.0% (nc)
• NZ First 7.0% (+0.5%)
• Maori 1.5% (+0.5%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.5% (-0.5%)
• Mana/Internet 0.0% (nc)
• Conservative 1.5% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

• National 53
• Labour 39
• Green 16
• ACT 1
• Maori 2
• United Future 1
• NZ First 9
• Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 53 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 55/121 – six fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 39 + Greens 16 = 55/121 – six fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 9 + Maori 2 = 11/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

• Right 51.0% (-11.5%)
• Wrong 33.0% (+6.0%)
• Can’t Say 16.0% (+5.5%)