Archives: Country Direction

Roy Morgan Poll mid December 2008

December 19, 2008

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 948 (3.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 01 December to 14 December 2008

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 47.0% (+3.0%)
  • Labour 31.5% (-1.0%)
  • Green 9.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 3.0% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 2.0% (-1.5%)
  • United Future 1.0% (nc)
  • ACT 4.0% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.5% (nc)
  • Other 1.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 59
  • Labour 39
  • Green 12
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 5
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 59 + ACT 5 = 64/122 – majority possible
  • Labour 39 + Progressive 1 + Greens 12 + Maori 5 = 57/122 = majority not possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 62 is shown. The Maori Party is the only party assumed to be able to go with National or Labour.

Country Direction

  • Right 63.0% (-3.0%)
  • Wrong 20.0% (+1.0%)
  • Can’t Say 17.0% (+2.0%)
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Roy Morgan Poll late November 2008

December 7, 2008

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 908 (3.5% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 16 November to 30 November 2008

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 44.0% (+2.0%)
  • Labour 32.5% (-2.0%)
  • Green 9.5% (-0.5%)
  • NZ First 3.5% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 3.5% (+1.0%)
  • United Future 1.0% (nc)
  • ACT 4.0% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
  • Other 1.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 56
  • Labour 42
  • Green 12
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 5
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 56 + ACT 5 + United Future = 62/122 – majority possible
  • Labour 42 + Progressive 1 + Greens 12 + Maori 5 = 60/122 = majority not possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 62 is shown. The Maori Party is the only party assumed to be able to go with National or Labour.

Country Direction

  • Right 66.0% (+14.5%)
  • Wrong 19.0% (-16.0%)
  • Can’t Say 15.0% (+1.5%)
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Roy Morgan Poll mid October 2008

October 25, 2008

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 743 (3.7% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 06 October to 19 October 2008

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 43.0% (+2.5%)
  • Labour 32.0% (-5.5%)
  • Green 11.5% (+2.5%)
  • NZ First 4.5% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 2.5% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 3.5% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Other 2.0% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 55
  • Labour 41
  • Green 15
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 6
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 4
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 55 + ACT 4 + United Future 1 + Maori 6 = 66/123 – majority possible
  • Labour 41 + Progressive 1 + Greens 15 + Maori 6 = 63/123 = majority possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 62 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.

Country Direction

  • Right 53.0% (+5.0%)
  • Wrong 34.5% (-5.0%)
  • Can’t Say 12.5% (-2.5%)
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Tamaki Makaurau Marae Digipoll October 2008

October 12, 2008

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone of Tamaki Makaurau voters

Poll Size: 400 voters (4.9% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 15 September to 7 October 2008

Client: Marae

Report: TVNZ

Party Support

  • Labour 37.5%
  • Maori Party 41.2%
  • NZ First 7.3%
  • National 5.9%
  • Green 4.0%

Candidate Support

  • Louisa Wall, Labour 13.5%
  • Pita Sharples, Maori Party 77.4%
  • Mikaere Curtis, Greens 6.5%
Preferred PM
  • Helen Clark 39.0%
  • Winston Peters 10.2%
  • Pita Sharples 7.2%
  • John Key 6.7%
  • Tariana Turia 5.9%
Country Direction
  • Right 46.5%
  • No 39.7%
  • Don’t Know 13.8%
Pita Sharples Performance
  • Very Satisfied 26.2%
  • Satisfied 54.1%
  • Not Satisfied 9.4%
  • Don’t Know 10.4%
Most effective Maori MP
  • Pita Sharples 32.8%
  • Hone Harawira 12.1%
  • Tariana Turia 9.0%
  • Winston Peters 7.0%
  • Parekura Horomia 4.6%
  • Shane Jones 2.8%
  • Tau Henare 1.6%
  • Dover Samuels 1.5%
  • Nanaia Mahuta 1.2%
  • Te Ururoa Flavell 1.0%
  • Georgina te Heuheu 1.0%
Most important issue
  • Education 16.8%
  • Law & Order 15.1%
  • Maori/Treaty 11.7%
  • Health 9.5%
  • Family Issues 8.0%
Coalitions
  • Maori Party coalition with Labour – 71.3% support, 20.6% do not
  • Maori Party coalition with National – 27.7% support, 63.8% do not
Identity
  • New Zealander First 15.4%
  • Maori first 72.2%
  • Both 11.8%
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Roy Morgan

October 11, 2008

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 923 (3.3% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 22 September to 05 Friday 2008

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 40.5% (-7.0%)
  • Labour 37.5% (+1.0%)
  • Green 9.0% (+2.5%)
  • NZ First 4.0% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 2.0% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 3.5% (+2.0%)
  • Progressive 1.0% (+1.0%)
  • Other 1.5% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 52
  • Labour 48
  • Green 11
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 6
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 4
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 52 + ACT 4 + United Future 1 + Maori 6 = 63/123 – majority possible
  • National 57 + ACT4 + Maori 6 = 62/123 – majority possible
  • Labour 48 + Progressive 1 + Greens 11 + Maori 6 = 66/123 = majority possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 63 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.

Country Direction

  • Right 48.0% (+4.0%)
  • Wrong 39.5% (-1.5%)
  • Can’t Say 12.5% (-2.5%)
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Roy Morgan Poll early September 2008

September 18, 2008

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 823 (3.5% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 01 September to 14 September 2008

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 47.5% (+3.0%)
  • Labour 36.5% (-1.5%)
  • Green 6.5% (-1.5%)
  • NZ First 5.0% (+2.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (-2.0%)
  • United Future 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 1.5% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
  • Other 1.0% (nc)
Projected Seats
  • National 57
  • Labour 44
  • Green 8
  • NZ First 6
  • Maori 6
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 2
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 125
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
  • National 57 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 + Maori 6 = 66/125 – majority possible
  • National 57 +Maori 6 = 63/125 – majority possible
  • Labour 44 + Progressive 1 + Greens 8 + NZ First 6 + Maori 6 = 65/125 = majority possible
The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 63 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.
Country Direction
  • Right 44.0% (-6.5%)
  • Wrong 41.0% (+5.5%)
  • Can’t Say 15.0% (+1.0%)
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Roy Morgan Poll early August 2008

August 15, 2008

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 836 (3.5% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 28 July to 10 August 2008

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 48.0% (+0.5%)
  • Labour 34.0% (+1.5%)
  • Green 7.5% (-0.5%)
  • NZ First 6.5% (+1.5%)
  • Maori 2.0% (-1.0%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 1.5% (-1.0%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
  • Other 0.5% (-0.5%)
Breakdowns are also given for Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch, Other NI and Other SI.
Projected Seats
  • National 58
  • Labour 41
  • Green 9
  • NZ First 8
  • Maori 6
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 2
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 126
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Country Direction
  • Right 44.5% (+6.0%)
  • Wrong 41.0% (-6.0%)
  • Can’t Say 14.5% (nc)
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Roy Morgan Poll late July 2008

August 8, 2008

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 834 (3.5% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 14 July to 27 July 2008

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 47.5% (-4.5%)
  • Labour 30.5% (+2.0%)
  • Green 8.0% (+1.0%)
  • NZ First 5.0% (-1.5%)
  • Maori 3.0% (+2.0%)
  • United Future 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 2.5% (+2.0%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • Other 1.0% (+1.0%)
Breakdowns are also given for Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch, Other NI and Other SI.
Projected Seats
  • National 57
  • Labour 39
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 6
  • Green 10
  • United Future 1
  • Maori 6
  • ACT 3
  • Total 123
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Country Direction
  • Right 38.5% (+2.0%)
  • Wrong 47.0% (-2.5%)
  • Can’t Say 14.5% (+0.5%)
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Roy Morgan early July 2008 Poll

July 18, 2008

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 871 (3.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 30 June to 13 July 2008

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 52.0% (+0.5%)
  • Labour 30.5% (+0.5%)
  • Progressive 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 6.5% (+2.5%)
  • Green 7.5% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 1.0% (nc)
  • Maori 1.0% (-1.5%)
  • ACT 0.5% (-1.5%)
  • Other 0.0% (-0.5%)
Breakdowns are also given for Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch, Other NI and Other SI.
Projected Seats
  • National 62
  • Labour 37
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 8
  • Green 9
  • United Future 1
  • Maori 6
  • ACT 1
  • Total 125
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Country Direction
  • Right 36.5% (-0.5%)
  • Wrong 49.5% (+0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 14% (nc)
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Roy Morgan Political Poll to 29 June 2008

July 6, 2008

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Unknown – presumably phone

Poll Size: 930 (3.3% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 16 to 29 June 2008

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 51.5% (-1%)
  • Labour 30.5% (-1%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 4.0% (nc)
  • Green 8.0% (+1%)
  • United Future 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 2.5% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 2.0% (nc)
  • Other 0.5% (nc)
Breakdowns are also given for Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch, Other NI and Other SI.
Country Direction
  • Right 37% (-5.5%)
  • Wrong 49% (+8.5%)
  • Can’t Say 14% (-3.0%)
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 34.5% 44
Labour 29.3% 37
Green 10.2% 13
Act 9.8% 12
NZ First 5.8% 7
TPM 5.9% 7
CR 50.2% 63
CL 45.3% 57
Total 96.3% 120
27/11/24
Embed | Methodology

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