Archives: Country Direction

Roy Morgan early November 2011

November 11, 2011

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 911, of whom 847 have a party preference

Undecideds: 7.0%

Dates: 24 October to 06 November 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 53.0% (-0.5%)
  • Labour 26.0% (-3.5%)
  • Green 12.0% (+2.5%)
  • ACT 1.0% (nc)
  • Maori 2.0% (nc)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 4.5% (+2.0%)
  • Mana 1.0% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 67
  • Labour 33
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning three electorate seats, ACT, Mana and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram and Te Tai Tonga.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 67 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 69/121 – 8 more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 15 + Mana 1 = 49/122 – 12 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 58.5% (-2.5%)
  • Wrong 27.5% (+3.0%)
  • Can’t Say 14.0% (-0.5%)
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Roy Morgan late October 2011

November 1, 2011

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 933, of whom 872 have a party preference

Undecideds: 6.5%

Dates: 10 October to 23 October 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 53.5% (-2.0%)
  • Labour 29.5% (+1.5%)
  • Green 9.5% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 2.0% (nc)
  • United Future 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 2.5% (+0.5%)
  • Mana 0.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 66
  • Labour 37
  • Green 12
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning three electorate seats, ACT, Mana and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram and Te Tai Tonga.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 66 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 68/121 – 7 more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 12 + Mana 1 = 50/122 – 11 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 61.0% (-1.0%)
  • Wrong 24.5% (nc)
  • Can’t Say 14.5% (+1.0%)
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NZ Herald Digipoll October 2011

October 29, 2011

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 10.6%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 671 had a party vote preference

Dates: 20 to 27 October 2011

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 53.5% (+1.5%)
  • Labour 30.3% (-1.2%)
  • Green 9.5% (-0.3%)
  • NZ First 2.8% (+0.4%)
  • Maori 1.2% (-0.6%)
  • United Future 0.1% (nc)
  • ACT 1.5% (+0.3%)
  • Mana 0.1% (-0.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 67
  • Labour 38
  • Green 12
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 2
  • Mana 1
  • Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning three electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Mana one each with Labour winning Te Tai Tonga.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 67 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 70/124 – 7 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 12 + Mana 1 = 51/124 -12 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 70.6% (+0.9%)
  • Goff 13.7% (+2.2%)
  • Peters 3.5% (-1.7%)

Direction

  • Right 59.0% (-0.5%)
  • Wrong 32.0% (-0.2%)
  • Unsure 9.0% (+0.7%)

MMP

  • Keep MMP 48%
  • Change 15%
  • Don’t Know 15%

Rugby World Cup

  • 39% say McCaw should be knighted for winning RWC, 61% say no
  • 57% say the RWC was a great event and worth spending $40m on
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Roy Morgan early October 2011

October 18, 2011

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 847, of whom 788 have a party preference

Undecideds: 7%

Dates: 26 September to 09 October 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 55.5% (+4.5%)
  • Labour 28.0% (-2.5%)
  • Green 9.5% (-2.0%)
  • ACT 1.5% (nc)
  • Maori 2.0% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 2.0% (+1.0%)
  • Mana 0.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 68
  • Labour 34
  • Green 12
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning three electorate seats, ACT, Mana and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram and Te Tai Tonga.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 68 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 71/121 – 10 more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 34 + Greens 12 + Mana 1 = 47/122 – 14 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 62.0% (+0.5%)
  • Wrong 24.5% (nc)
  • Can’t Say 13.5% (-0.5%)
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Roy Morgan late September 2011

October 1, 2011

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 788, of whom 773 have a party preference

Undecideds: 7%

Dates: 12 September to 25 September 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 51.0% (-6.0%)
  • Labour 30.5% (+4.5%)
  • Green 11.5% (-+4.0%)
  • ACT 1.5% (nc)
  • Maori 2.5% (nc)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 1.0% (-2.5%)
  • Mana 0.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 62
  • Labour 37
  • Green 14
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, Mana and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 62 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 65/121 – 4 more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 14 + Mana 1 = 52/122 – 9 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 61.5% (+1.5%)
  • Wrong 24.5% (-3.5%)
  • Can’t Say 14.0% (+2.0%)
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Roy Morgan poll late September 2011

September 17, 2011

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 938, of whom 882 have a party preference

Undecideds: 6%

Dates: 28 August to 11 September 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 57.0% (+5.0%)
  • Labour 26.0% (-3.5%)
  • Green 7.5% (-1.5%)
  • ACT 1.5% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 2.5% (+1.0%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 3.5% (nc)
  • Mana 1.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 71
  • Labour 33
  • Green 9
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, Mana and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 71 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 74/121 – 13 more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 9 + Mana 1 = 43/122 – 18 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 60.0% (+1.0%)
  • Wrong 28.0% (+0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 12.0% (-1.5%)
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Roy Morgan Poll late August 2011

September 5, 2011

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 845, of whom 803 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5%

Dates: 15 August to 28 August 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 52.0% (+1.5%)
  • Labour 29.5% (-2.5%)
  • Green 9.0% (+1.5%)
  • ACT 2.0% (nc)
  • Maori 1.5% (nc)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 3.5% (-0.5%)
  • Mana 1.0% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 65
  • Labour 37
  • Green 11
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, Mana and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 65 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 69/122 – 7 more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 11 + Mana 1 = 49/122 – 13 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 59.0% (+2.0%)
  • Wrong 27.5% (-1.5%)
  • Can’t Say 13.5% (-0.5%)
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NZ Herald Digipoll August 2011

September 5, 2011

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 11.2%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 666 had a party vote preference

Dates: 19 to 26 August 2011

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 52.0% (-0.3%)
  • Labour 31.5% (-1.6%)
  • Green 9.8% (+1.5%)
  • NZ First 2.4% (+1.5%)
  • Maori 1.8% (-0.2%)
  • United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
  • ACT 1.2% (-0.2%)
  • Mana 0.6% (+0.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 65
  • Labour 39
  • Green 12
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Mana 1
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Mana one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 65 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 67/123 – 5 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 39 + Greens 12 + Mana 1 = 52/124 -10 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 69.7% (-0.6%)
  • Goff 11.5% (+2.2%)
  • Peters 5.2% (+2.2%)
  • Clark 5.8% (-2.1%)

Direction

  • Right 59.5% (+2.0%)
  • Wrong 32.2% (-1.6%)
  • Unsure 8.3% (-0.4%)
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Roy Morgan Poll early August 2011

August 21, 2011

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 921, of whom 843 have a party preference

Undecideds: 8.5%

Dates: 25 July to 7 August 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 52.0% (+3.0%)
  • Labour 31.5% (-2.0%)
  • Green 7.5% (nc)
  • ACT 2.0% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 3.0% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 2.5% (-0.5%)
  • Mana 0.5% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 64
  • Labour 39
  • Green 9
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 120

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, Mana and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 64 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 67/122 – 6 more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 39 + Greens 9 + Mana 1 = 49/122 – 12 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 56.5% (+0.5%)
  • Wrong 29.0% (-0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 14.5% (nc)
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NZ Herald Digipoll July 2011

July 31, 2011

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 11.2%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 666 had a party vote preference

Dates: 19 to 27 July 2011

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 52.3% (+1.1%)
  • Labour 33.1% (-3.0%)
  • Green 8.3% (+1.7%)
  • NZ First 0.9% (-0.3%)
  • Maori 2.0% (+0.3%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.4% (-0.5%)
  • Mana 0.6% (+0.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 64
  • Labour 41
  • Green 10
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 2
  • Mana 1
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Mana one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 64 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 67/124 – 5 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 41 + Greens 10 + Mana 1 = 52/124 -10 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • Key 70.3% (-0.3%)
  • Goff 9.3% (-2.6%)
  • Peters 2.9% (-2.5%)
  • Clark 7.9% (+3.8%)

Direction

  • Right 57.5%
  • Wrong 33.8%
  • Unsure 8.7%

Capital Gains Tax

  • Strongly favour 16.5%
  • Moderately favour 21.4%
  • No opinion 22.8%
  • Moderately against 16%
  • Strongly against 21.5%
  • More likely to vote Labour 22.1%
  • Less likely to vote Labour 14.4%
  • No difference 61.3%
Asset Sales
  • Strongly favour 7.2%
  • Moderately favour 19.8%
  • No opinion 15.5%
  • Moderately against 22.1%
  • Strongly against 34.5%
Debt Repayment Preferences
  • CGT 43.1%
  • Asset part-sales 34.4%
SAS in Afghanistan
  • Remain beyond March 2012 23.1%
  • Withdraw as scheduled 63.3%

Maori

  • Too much say 42.2%
  • Too little say 13.2%
  • About the right amount 39.8%
Women paid less because they are women
  • Yes 54.2%
  • No 36.4%
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 34.5% 44
Labour 29.3% 37
Green 10.2% 13
Act 9.8% 12
NZ First 5.8% 7
TPM 5.9% 7
CR 50.2% 63
CL 45.3% 57
Total 96.3% 120
27/11/24
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