Archives: Coalition Options

3 News Reid Research poll mid September 2014

September 17, 2014

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: 09 to 15 September 2014

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

  • National 44.5% (-2.2%)
  • Labour 25.6% (-0.5%)
  • Green 14.4% (+1.4%)
  • ACT 0.1% (-0.2%)
  • Maori 1.1%  (-0.2%)
  • United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
  • Mana/Internet 2.0% (+0.3%)
  • NZ First 7.1% (+1.2%)
  • Conservative 4.9% (+0.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 56
  • Labour 33
  • Green 18
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 3
  • NZ First 9
  • Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 56 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 58/124 – five fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 18 + Mana/Internet 3 = 54/124 – nine fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 9 + Maori 3 = 12/124

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 44.1% (-1.2%)
  • David Cunliffe 12.3% (nc)
  • Winston Peters 9.1% (+1.2%)

Preferred Coalition Partner for National

  • All voters – NZ First 54%, Conservatives 37%
  • National voters – NZ First 36%, Conservatives 54%

Kim Dotcom and hacking

  • 38% think Kim Dotcom was behind hacking of Whale Oil’s e-mails
  • 32% do not
  • 30% unsure
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NZ Herald DigiPoll early September 2014

September 5, 2014

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds:

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom xxx had a party preference

Dates: 28 August to 03 September 2014

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 50.1% (-0.6%)
  • Labour 23.8% (-0.3%)
  • Green 11.4% (nc)
  • NZ First 6.0% (+1.0%)
  • Maori 0.4% (-0.6%)
  • United Future 0.2% (+0.1%)
  • ACT 0.4% (+0.1%)
  • Mana/Internet 3.5% (+0.1%)
  • Conservative 3.8% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 63
  • Labour 30
  • Green 14
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Mana/Internet 4
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 63 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 65/123 – three more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 30 + Greens 14 + Mana/Internet 4 = 48/123 – 14 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 3 = 10/123

On this poll, National would form the Government.

Preferred PM

  • Key
  • Cunliffe
  • Peters
  • Norman

Coalition preferences

  • 47% say National should go with NZ First, 35% Conservatives
  • Among National voters, 47% Conservatives, 38% NZ First

Farmers and Environment

  • 47% agree that farmers were continually improving their practices and were unfairly criticised by environmentalists.
  • 39% of respondents agreed that farmers were moving too slowly to improve their practices
  • 7% said they deserve all the criticism they get from environmentalists
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NZ Herald Digipoll June 2014

June 17, 2014

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 12.2%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 659 had a party preference

Dates: 06 to 15 June 2014

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

  • National 50.4% (-0.4%)
  • Labour 30.5% (+1.0%)
  • Green 10.7% (-2.4%)
  • NZ First 3.6% (nc)
  • Maori 0.8% (+0.6%)
  • United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
  • ACT 0.7% (-0.1%)
  • Mana/Internet 1.4% (+1.3%)
  • Conservative 1.5% (+0.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 64
  • Labour 38
  • Green 14
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Mana/Internet 2
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 64 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 66/123 – four more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 14 + Mana/Internet 2 = 54/123 -eight fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/123

On this poll, National would form the Government.

Preferred PM

  • Key 65.9% (-0.6%)
  • Cunliffe 12.7% (+1.6%)
  • Peters 6.2% (-0.3%)
  • Norman 2.5% (-2.0%)

Electorate MP threshold

  • Keep 50%
  • Remove and drop threshold to 4% – 36%

Mana/Internet deal

  • Unprincipled rort 43%
  • Legitimate use of MMP 33%

Country Direction

  • Right 65%

Political Fundraising

  • 42% say politicians speaking regularly to donors in private meetings is a bad look
  • 30% say nothing wrong
  • 21% say it is corrupt

Capital Gains Tax

  • 41% favour
  • 35% opposed

Cannabis

  • 33% decriminalise
  • 20% legalise
  • 45% remain illegal

Immigration

  • Levels about right 50%
  • Too high 35%

Coalition Partners

  • Preferred coalition partner for Labour is Greens 50% then NZ First 35%
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3 News Reid Research Poll January 2014

February 3, 2014

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: approx 21 to 28 January 2014

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

  • National 44.5% (-3.2%)
  • Labour 33.5% (+1.2%)
  • Green 12.4% (-1.6%)
  • ACT 0.0% (+0.6%)
  • Maori 1.0%  (-0.4%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.2%)
  • Mana 0.3% (+1.1%)
  • NZ First 5.7% (+0.3%)
  • Conservative 2.1% (+1.7%)

Projected Seats

  • National 55
  • Labour 42
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 125

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 55 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 57/125 – six fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 42 + Greens 15 + Mana 1 = 58/125 – five fewer than minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 3 = 10/125

On this poll, NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • Key 39.0% (-1.9%)
  • Cunliffe 10.8% (nc)
  • Peters 5.8% (-1.7%)
  • Norman

NZ First

  • 54% say John Key should work with Winston Peters, 36% say he should rule him out
  • 61% of National supporters say John Key should work with Winston Peters, 32% say he should rule him out

Internet Party

  • 21% said they would consider voting for Kim Dotcom’s Internet Party
  • 75% would not
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Fairfax Research International Poll July 2011

July 31, 2011

Polling Company: Research International

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,008, of whom 860 had a party preference

Dates: 21 to 25 July 2011

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 56.0%
  • Labour 29.0%
  • Green 6.4%
  • ACT 2.2%
  • Maori 1.2%
  • United Future <1%
  • Mana 0.2%
  • NZ First 2.0%

Projected Seats

  • National 71
  • Labour 36
  • Green 8
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, United Future and Mana one seat each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 71 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 75/121 – 12 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 8 + Mana 1= 45/121 -18 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 53%
  • Phil Goff 6.2%
  • Winston Peters 2.5%

Preferred Coalition Partners

  • Greens 25%
  • ACT 18%
  • Maori 11%
  • Labour 8.2%
  • National 5.5%
  • NZ First 2.7%
  • United Future 1.2%
  • Mana 0.2%
Best plan to fix the economy
  • National 49%
  • Labour 17%
  • Green 1.5%
  • ACT 1.8%
  • Maori 0.2%
  • Mana 0.2%
  • NZ First 0.4%
Issues important to voting decisions
  1. Health and education 90%
  2. Economy 84%
  3. Law & Order 83%
  4. Cost of living 83%
  5. Rebuilding Christchurch 75%
  6. Environment 72%
  7. Social Welfare 65%
  8. Superannuation/KiwiSaver 64%
  9. SOEs 60%
  10. Taxes 59%
  11. Immigration 47%
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Ikaroa-Rawhiti Marae Digipoll October 2008

November 2, 2008

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone of Ikaroa-Rawhiti voters

Poll Size: 400 voters (4.9% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 15 October to 28 October 2008

Client: Marae

Report: TVNZ

Party Support

  • Labour 45.5%
  • Maori Party 39.2%
  • NZ First 4.9%
  • National 3.1%
  • Green 3.9%

Candidate Support

  • Parekura Horomia, Labour 49.8%
  • Derek Fox, Maori Party 44.4%
Preferred PM
  • Helen Clark 50.8%
  • Winston Peters 6.0%
  • Pita Sharples 9.1%
  • John Key 4.6%
  • Tariana Turia 4.1%
Country Direction
  • Right 64.0%
  • No 23.7%
  • Don’t Know 12.3%
Parekura Horomia Performance
  • Very Satisfied 19.4%
  • Satisfied 53.9%
  • Not Satisfied 18.5%
  • Don’t Know 8.3%
Most effective Maori MP
  • Parekura Horomia 30.1%
  • Pita Sharples 20.4%
  • Hone Harawira 3.7%
  • Tariana Turia 11.1%
  • Winston Peters 7.1%
Most important issue
  • Maori/Treaty 15.6%
  • Education 19.0%
  • Law & Order 8.3%
  • Health 12.9%
  • Family Issues 6.5%
Coalitions
  • Maori Party coalition with Labour – 83.4% support, 12.1% do not
  • Maori Party coalition with National – 20.8% support, 73.1% do not
Identity
  • New Zealander First 15.4%
  • Maori first 67.0%
  • Both 17.4%
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Hauraki-Waikato Marae Digipoll October 2008

November 1, 2008

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone of Hauraki-Waikato voters

Poll Size: 400 voters (4.9% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 8 October to 21 October 2008

Client: Marae

Report: TVNZ

Party Support

  • Labour 41.3%
  • Maori Party 41.0%
  • NZ First 4.9%
  • National 6.4%
  • Green 4.5%

Candidate Support

  • Nanaia Mahuta, Labour 50.3%
  • Angeline Greensill, Maori Party 49.7%
Preferred PM
  • Helen Clark 47.2%
  • Winston Peters 7.8%
  • Pita Sharples 8.6%
  • John Key 5.7%
  • Tariana Turia 4.9%
Country Direction
  • Right 52.0%
  • No 32.6%
  • Don’t Know 15.4%
Nanaia Mahuta Performance
  • Very Satisfied 16.3%
  • Satisfied 57.3%
  • Not Satisfied 17.0%
  • Don’t Know 9.5%
Most effective Maori MP
  • Nanaia Mahuta 21.0%
  • Pita Sharples 26.9%
  • Hone Harawira 6.9%
  • Tariana Turia 4.7%
  • Winston Peters 10.2%
Most important issue
  • Maori/Treaty 13.2%
  • Education 12.1%
  • Law & Order 11.9%
  • Health 10.8%
  • Family Issues 9.0%
Coalitions
  • Maori Party coalition with Labour – 77.6% support, 14.0% do not
  • Maori Party coalition with National – 24.3% support, 64.0% do not
Identity
  • New Zealander First 13.4%
  • Maori first 77.5%
  • Both 16.2%
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Te Tai Tonga Marae Digipoll October 2008

November 1, 2008

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone of Waiariki voters

Poll Size: 400 voters (4.9% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 8 October to 21 October 2008

Client: Marae

Report: TVNZ

Party Support

  • Labour 44.0%
  • Maori Party 29.5%
  • NZ First 4.9%
  • National 10.9%
  • Green 8.5%

Candidate Support

  • Mahara Okeroa, Labour 40.4%
  • Rahui Reid Katene, Maori Party 46.1%
Preferred PM
  • Helen Clark 47.9%
  • Winston Peters 7.5%
  • Pita Sharples 6.9%
  • John Key 7.0%
  • Tariana Turia 1.1%
Country Direction
  • Right 56.1%
  • No 26.6%
  • Don’t Know 17.3%
Mahara Okeroa Performance
  • Very Satisfied 8.4%
  • Satisfied 47.9%
  • Not Satisfied 19.7%
  • Don’t Know 24.0%
Most effective Maori MP
  • Pita Sharples 23.7%
  • Hone Harawira 5.9%
  • Tariana Turia 10.5%
  • Winston Peters 10.3%
Most important issue
  • Maori/Treaty 11.7%
  • Education 15.4%
  • Law & Order 5.8%
  • Health 11.3%
  • Family Issues 5.0%
Coalitions
  • Maori Party coalition with Labour – 79.8% support, 16.5% do not
  • Maori Party coalition with National – 29.8% support, 65.3% do not
Identity
  • New Zealander First 21.4%
  • Maori first 63.0%
  • Both 14.8%
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One New Colmar Brunton on Coalitions

October 28, 2008

One News reports:

  • 79% agree the party with the most votes should lead Government
  • 15% disagree
  • 47% want National or Labour to govern alone
  • 47% want them to govern in coalition with other parties
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Waiariki Marae-Digipoll October 2008

October 20, 2008

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone of Waiariki voters

Poll Size: 400 voters (4.9% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 24 September to 14 October 2008

Client: Marae

Report: TVNZ

Party Support

  • Labour 33.8%
  • Maori Party 48.9%
  • NZ First 6.3%
  • National 6.3%
  • Green 1.4%

Candidate Support

  • Mita Ririnui, Labour 22.2%
  • Te Ururoa Flavell, Maori Party 72.8%
Preferred PM
  • Helen Clark 48.2%
  • Winston Peters 5.2%
  • Pita Sharples 3.5%
  • John Key 6.1%
  • Tariana Turia 7.6%
Country Direction
  • Right 46.9%
  • No 35.3%
  • Don’t Know 17.8%
Te Ururoa Flavell Performance
  • Very Satisfied 28.3%
  • Satisfied 56.3%
  • Not Satisfied 5.4%
  • Don’t Know 9.8%
Most effective Maori MP
  • Te Ururoa Flavell 27.9%
  • Pita Sharples 20.1%
  • Hone Harawira 5.6%
  • Tariana Turia 6.8%
  • Winston Peters 7.3%
Most important issue
  • Maori/Treaty 21.7%
  • Education 14.7%
  • Law & Order 7.2%
  • Health 10.4%
  • Family Issues 6.8%
Coalitions
  • Maori Party coalition with Labour – 74.3% support, 19.4% do not
  • Maori Party coalition with National – 24.2% support, 65.8% do not
Identity
  • New Zealander First 10.5%
  • Maori first 73.0%
  • Both 16.2%
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 35.2% 44
Labour 29.7% 37
Act 9.6% 12
Green 10.8% 14
NZ First 7.4% 9
Maori 3.1% 6
CR 51.2% 65
CL 44.1% 57
Total 97.9% 122
14/10/24
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