Archives: affordable housing

The Property Institute released:

“The number of people predicting an increase in property prices over the next six months is up 5% to 55% since March. Those expecting prices to decrease has dropped 5% from 12% to just 7%”.

“This means that expectations have rebounded to figures that closely match our November poll (56% increase & 8% decrease) – except in Auckland where there has been a big slump in expectations. Back in November 58% of Aucklanders were expecting house prices to rise – but last month that figure was down 12% to 46%, unchanged from our March poll”.

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,010 voters of whom 839 have a party preference

Undecideds: 16%

Dates: 12 November to 23 November 2016

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

• National 50.0% (+2%)
• Labour 28.0% (+2%)
• Green 11.0% (-2.0%)
• NZ First 10.0% (-1.0%)
• Maori 1.0% (-0.8%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.0% (-0.5%)
• Mana 0.0% (nc)
• Conservative 0.2% (-0.1%)

Projected Seats

• National 60
• Labour 34
• Green 13
• ACT 1
• Maori 1
• United Future 1
• NZ First 12
• Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 60 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 62/122 – the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 34 + Greens 13 = 47/122 – 15 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 12 + Maori 1 = 13/122

On this poll National could govern with ACT and United Future.

Preferred PM

• John Key 36.0% (-2%)
• Andrew Little 8% (-2%)
• Winston Peters 8% (-3%)
• Jacinda Ardern 1.0% (nc)

Economic Outlook

• Better 43% (-2%)
• Same 24% (nc)
• Worse 33% (+2%)

Foreign property tax

• Support a 15% tax on foreign house buyers in Auckland 75%
• Oppose 18%

Plastic bag levy

• Support a 15c per bag levy 78%
• Oppose 19%

Surplus 2016

• Increase spending 48%
• Reduce debt 31%
• Reduce taxes 17%

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,013 voters of whom 845 have a party preference

Undecideds: 13%

Dates: 03 September to 09 September 2016

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

• National 48.0% (nc)
• Labour 26.0% (-3%)
• Green 13.0% (+1.0%)
• NZ First 11.0% (+2.0%)
• Maori 1.8% (+1.1%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.5% (+0.2%)
• Mana 0.0% (nc)
• Conservative 0.3% (-0.4%)

Projected Seats

• National 58
• Labour 31
• Green 15
• ACT 1
• Maori 2
• United Future 1
• NZ First 13
• Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/121 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 31 + Greens 15 = 46/121 – 15 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 13 + Maori 2 = 15/122

On this poll National (plus ACT and United) could govern with the Maori Party.  Labour could govern with Greens, NZ First and Maori Party. The Maori Party would hold the effective balance of power.

Preferred PM

• John Key 38.0% (-1%)
• Andrew Little 10% (+3%)
• Winston Peters 11% (-1%)
• Jacinda Ardern 1.0% (nc)

Economy

• Better 45% (+3%)
• Worse 31% (-5%)

Immigration

• Fewer migrants 38% (+11% from April)
• Current numbers rights 44% (-7%)
• More migrants 13% (-5%)

Housing

• 53% say Government should take more action even if it reduces house values
• 31% say more should be done but only if house values do not shrink
• 11% say no more action needed

Hive News reports:

But yesterday UMR released results of a poll that found 60% of Aucklanders and 55% of home owners would prefer that house prices either fell a bit or fell dramatically over the next year.

The poll of 1,000 New Zealanders over the age of 18 was taken from July 29 to August 17 through UMR’s online omnibus survey and found a total of 63% nationwide who would either prefer house prices to ‘fall but not too much’ (37%) or to fall dramatically (26%).

UMR, which conducts polls for the Labour, found 55% of home owners would prefer house prices to fall a bit (40%) or dramatically (15%).

The poll found 14% of respondents preferred house prices either kept rising rapidly (4%) or at a slower pace (10%), while 17% of Aucklanders wanted house prices to keep rising rapidly (4%) or at a slower pace (13%). A total of 15% of home owners wanted house prices to rise rapidly (2%) or at a slower pace (13%). There were 633 home owners and 331 Aucklanders who took the poll.

The poll also asked if there was a housing crisis at the moment and found that 81% of all respondents and 85% of Aucklanders thought there was a crisis, while 79% of home owners thought there was housing crisis. Fourteen per cent of those polled thought there was no crisis and 5% were unsure.

Auckland Mayoral preferences:

• Phil Goff 31%
• Vic Crone 8%
• John Palino 4%
• Penny Bright 2.4%
• Mark Thomas 1.7%
• David Hay 1.4%
• Undecided 44%

Auckland Unitary Plan agreement:

• Yes great idea 19%
• Yes with some reservations 56%
• No 12%
• Unsure 13%

Party Vote (in Auckland)

• National 42.6%
• Labour 32.7%
• Greens 11%
• NZ First 10.4%

Polling Company: Reid Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates: May 2016

Client: Newshub

Report: Newshub

Party Support

• National 47.0% (+0.3%)
• Labour 31.3% (-1.0%)
• Green 11.1% (+0.9%)
• NZ First 7.8% (+0.3%)
• Maori 1.0% (-0.3%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.4% (-0.4%)
• Mana 0.0% (nc)
• Conservative 0.0% (-0.7%)

Projected Seats

• National 57
• Labour 38
• Green 14
• ACT 1
• Maori 1
• United Future 1
• NZ First 10
• Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/122 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 38 + Greens 14 = 52/122 – 10 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 10 + Maori 1 = 11/122

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

• John Key 36.7% (-1.6%)
• Andrew Little 8.9% (-1.5%)
• Winston Peters 12.1% (+2.8%)
• Jacinda Ardern 2.6% (-1.6%)

Housing

• 20% think Government is doing enough to control the housing market
• 76% do not
• 61% think foreign buyers are driving up house prices

US Ships

• 75% support a visit by a US Navy ship
• 20% opposed

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Subscriber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 750 of whom 660 have a party preference

Undecideds: 12%

Dates: 14 August to 24 August 2015

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

• National 50.8% (-0.2%)
• Labour 31.0% (+2.3%)
• Green 9.2% (-1.6%)
• NZ First 6.9% (+0.8%)
• Maori 0.2% (-0.6%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.2% (-0.6%)
• Mana/Internet 0.2% (+0.2%)
• Conservative 0.6% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

• National 62
• Labour 38
• Green 11
• ACT 1
• Maori 1
• United Future 1
• NZ First 8
• Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 62 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 64/122 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 38 + Greens 11 = 49/122 – 13 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 8 + Maori 1 = 9/122

On this poll National would be able to govern alone.

Preferred PM

• John Key 63.7% (-0.9%)
• Andrew Little 13.3% (-0.6%)
• Winston Peters 11.6% (-0.4%)
• Jacinda Ardern 3.9% (+3.4%)

Country Direction

• Right 50.9% (-4.4%)
• Wrong 40.9% (+4.9%)

Next National Leader

• Bill English 30.3%
• Steven Joyce 14.2%
• Paula Bennett 11.4%
• Simon Bridges 7.2%

Next Labour Leader

• Annette King 21.8%
• Jacinda Ardern 20.1%
• Grant Robertson 18.0%
• Phil Twyford 4.0%

Private Prisons

• 57% say prisons should always be run by the state
• 38% say there is a place for well-run private companies operating prisons.

Foreign House Buyers

• 32% support a ban on foreigners buying houses
• 20% oppose a ban
• 42% would support a ban if there is evidence foreign buyers are pushing prices up

NZ Flag

• 53% against change in principle
• 23% support change in principle
• 24% depends on alternative designs

TPP

• 30% oppose TPP
• 20% support TPP
• 45% not know enough to have a view

Iraq

• 59% support the deployment of troops to do training (+2%)
• 34% oppose

Polling Company: Reid Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates: 15 to 22 July 2015

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

• National 47.0% (+0.6%)
• Labour 31.1% (+0.7%)
• Green 11.4% (+0.3%)
• NZ First 8.4% (+0.3%)
• Maori 0.6% (-0.5%)
• United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
• ACT 0.5% (nc)
• Mana 0.0% (nc)
• Conservative 0.7% (-1.2%)

Projected Seats

• National 57
• Labour 37
• Green 14
• ACT 1
• Maori 1
• United Future 1
• NZ First 10
• Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/121 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 37 + Greens 14 = 51/121 – ten fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 10 + Maori 1 = 11/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

• John Key 38.3% (-1.1%)
• Andrew Little 10.2% (-1.4%)
• Winston Peters 11.3% (+0.1%)

Foreign buyers

• 61% support banning foreign buyers from buying houses
• 35% oppose
• 4% don’t know

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: 21 to 27 May 2015

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

• National 46.4% (-3.4%)
• Labour 30.4% (+1.3%)
• Green 11.1% (+1.8%)
• ACT 0.5% (+0.1%)
• Maori 1.1%  (-0.2%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• Mana 0.0% (-0.6%)
• NZ First 8.1% (+1.3%)
• Conservative 1.9% (-0.8%)

Projected Seats

• National 57
• Labour 37
• Green 14
• ACT 1
• Maori 1
• United Future 1
• NZ First 10
• Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/121 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 37 + Greens 14 = 51/121 – 10 fewer than minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 10 + Maori 1 = 11/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

• John Key 39.4% (-4.6%)
• Andrew Little 11.6% (+1.8%)
• Winston Peters 11.2% (+3.6%)

John Key

• Went too far with ponytail pulling 52%
• Was just horsing about 42%

House Affordability

• 33% says Government is doing enough to keep prices under control
• 60% say not enough

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1000 respondents of whom 873 have a party preference

Undecideds:

Dates: 04 September to 11 September 2014

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

• National 52.8% (-1.4%)
• Labour 22.4% (-1.9%)
• Green 13.0% (+0.1%)
• NZ First 4.4% (+0.8%)
• Maori 1.0% (+0.7%)
• United Future 0.0% (-0.1%)
• ACT 0.7% (+0.5%)
• Mana 1.4% (+0.1%)
• Conservative 3.6% (+1.2%)

Projected Seats

• National 70
• Labour 29
• Green 17
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 2
• NZ First 0
• Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 70 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 72/123 – 10 more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 29 + Greens 17 + Mana 2 = 48/123 – 14 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/123

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

Preferred PM

• John Key 57.5% (-0.1%)
• David Cunliffe 17.5% (nc)

Housing Policies

• 49% prefer National’s home start grants
• 38% prefer Labour’s Kiwibuild

Next National Leader

• Bill English 33%
• Steven Joyce 22%
• Paula Bennett 11%
• Simon Bridges 9%

Affordability of Spending Promises

• National +42% (62% affordable, 20% unaffordable)
• Labour -5%
• NZ First -3%
• Greens -26%
• Conservatives -9%
• Internet Mana -32%

Auckland Transport

• City Rail Link 40% most important
• 2nd harbour crossing 32%
• Dominion Road upgrade 15%
• Puhoi to Wellsford 12%

Auckland Growth

• 55% support new suburbs
• 38% build high rises