Archives: UMR

Scott Guy verdict poll

July 16, 2012

Stuff reports:

The survey of 750 New Zealanders aged 18 years and over, conducted in the days immediately after the verdict, shows almost half of the respondents believed Macdonald was guilty.

When asked “From what you have seen, heard or feel about the case, do you think it is more likely Ewen Macdonald is guilty or not guilty?” 48 per cent said guilty.

A further 20 per cent said not guilty, 28 per cent said they were unsure, and 4 per cent of people refused to answer. …

The survey also showed support for major changes to the criminal justice system similar to those advocated for by Sensible Sentencing Trust spokesman Garth McVicar this week.

This included getting rid of a defendant’s right to silence, which would mean they would be forced to give evidence at the trial. Of those surveyed, 61 per cent thought this was a good idea. …

Three-quarters of people thought juries should be able to return a verdict of “not-proven” alongside “not guilty” and “guilty,” as used in the Scottish legal system. A “not-proven” verdict is essentially an acquittal, but gives juries an option where they feel that the charges have not been proved but they equally cannot say the accused is “not guilty”.

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US Presidential Election 2012 poll

July 16, 2012

Stuff reports:

It would be much easier for Barack Obama to be re-elected in New Zealand than the United States.

An overwhelming majority of New Zealanders would vote for Barack Obama if they had the chance. Given a hypothetical vote, 66 per cent would favour Obama and a mere 7 per cent his Republican rival, Mitt Romney.

New Zealanders have always favoured Democrats in UMR polling but never by such a big margin.

We like Obama a lot more, too. He has a handsome 82 per cent favourable/11 per cent unfavourable rating from New Zealanders. Fewer have an opinion on Romney, but it is breaking negative at 14 per cent favourable/31 per cent unfavourable.

New Zealanders expect Obama to prevail as well. Seventy per cent expect an Obama victory and 10 per cent a Romney victory.

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Crafar Farms poll

March 20, 2012

Fairfax reports a poll by UMR. Key results were:

“Are you aware of the proposal to sell 16 agricultural properties, the Crafar farms, in the central North Island to an overseas company?

Yes: 87 per cent 
No: 12 per cent
Unsure: 1 per cent

“The Chinese company Shanghai Pengxin wants to buy the Crafar farms; do you support or oppose selling the farms to this Chinese company?”

Support: 21 per cent
Oppose:71 per cent
Unsure: 8 per cent

“Do you agree, or disagree, with this statement: ‘I don’t care what the nationality of the company is, 
I don’t want the farms to be sold to a foreign buyer’.”

Agree:  70 per cent
Disagree:  26 per cent
Unsure: 4 per cent

 

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UMR on foreign ownership

November 6, 2011

Stuff reports:

A UMR Research survey, commissioned by a North Island farmer group trying to buy the in-receivership Crafar dairy farms against a Chinese bid, showed 82 per cent of 500 respondents believed foreign ownership of farms and agriculture land was a “bad thing”. Only 10 per cent believed it a “good thing” and 8 per cent were unsure.

The online poll, which weighed and matched data with census data to ensure a nationally representative sample, also found Kiwis are not xenophobic in opposing a Crafar sale to the Chinese.

The main reasons given for not selling to foreign companies were to keep control of our primary resource, and so that Kiwis benefited from exports, not foreigners.

Though 81 per cent opposed Chinese companies being allowed to buy agricultural land, 76 per cent were against US buyers, 67 per cent did not want British companies buying, and Australia got a 54 per cent thumbs down.

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NZ view of other countries

October 24, 2011

UMR polled 750 NZers on their views of other countries.

The net positive ratings for each country were:

  1. Australia +66%
  2. Scotland +45%
  3. Wales +37%
  4. England +36%
  5. Japan +33%
  6. Germaany +33%
  7. Ireland +32%
  8. France +24%
  9. China +10%
  10. Brazil +9%
  11. India +6%
  12. USA +1%
  13. South Africa -8%
  14. Russia – 10%
  15. Greece -30%
  16. Pakistan -50%

Australia

  • If Australia not playing NZ, 46% support Australia
  • 33% support other country
  • If RWC Final had been Australia v South Africa 63% support Australia and 25% South Africa
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UMR Epsom poll

October 24, 2011

NBR have published a poll done in Epsom of 400 voters taken on 7 an 8 October.

Electorate Vote

  • Paul Goldsmith, National – 42%
  • John Banks, ACT – 28%
  • David Parker, Labour – 19%
  • David Hay, Greens – 11%

Electorate Vote if John Key indicates he wants ACT to win Epsom

  • Paul Goldsmith, National – 25%
  • John Banks, ACT – 43%
  • David Parker, Labour – 19%
  • David Hay, Greens – 11%

Expect to win Epsom

  • Paul Goldsmith, National – 37%
  • John Banks, ACT – 53%
  • David Parker, Labour – 9%
  • David Hay, Greens – 1%

Party Vote

  • National 65%
  • Labour 19%
  • Greens 10%
  • ACT 4%

Don Brash as ACT Leader

  • Worked out poorly 47%
  • Made no difference 30%
  • Worked out well 14%
  • Unsure 9%

 

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Compulsory KiwiSaver

August 21, 2011

A UMR survey found 57% of respondents support KiwiSaver being made compulsory, but only 27% saying it should be compulsory for all adults, with the other 30% saying for working adults only.

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90 days trial period poll

September 20, 2010

UMR did a poll on behalf of the CTU of 750 NZers from 9 to 12 September 2010. The question was:

Do you think that all employees should have the right to appeal if they think they have been unfairly dismissed, even if their dismissal was during the first 90 days of their employment?

80% said yes, and 18% no.

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Climate Change Poll

September 20, 2010

UMR conducted a poll of 503 respondents in July and August on climate change issues, for the Greenhouse Policy Coalition:

  • 36% say the climate change issues is a serious or very serious concern (-7% from 43% in 2009)
  • 25% say NZ should reduce emissions, even if it reduces standard of living (-10%)
  • 58% say NZ should take part in an agreed international emissions scheme even if it costs every NZer $50 a year (-6%)
  • 18% say NZ should reduce emissions even if it costs jobs (-6%)
  • 45% agree controlling emissions is about saving the planet and should ot quibble over money (-11%)
  • 66% agree NZ should switch to more sustainable technologies, even if there is a cost to doing so (-13%)
  • On a 0 to 10 scale for fairness of putting a price on carbon emissions, 51% rate it 5 or higher (-6%)
  • 34% say they are informed about the ETS (+5%)
  • 46% say that climate change is a problem and is caused by human activity (+2%)
  • 33% say that climate change is a problem but there is no clear proof it is caused by human activity (-3%)
  • 19% say that climate change is not a problem (+1%)
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UMR Mood of the Nation

January 3, 2010

UMR have published a 42 page mood of the nation for 2009. Some extracts:

  • 68% say 2010 will be better than 2009, with 20% disagreeing
  • At year end 61% expect economy to get better, and 22% worse
  • 41% expect their family’s living standards to get better, and 22% worse
  • 49% expect unemployment to go up, and 26% down
  • 64% expect interest rates to increase and 11% decrease
  • In ten years time, respondents expect the economy (net +22%) to be better, race relations (+16%), transport (+6%), policing (+11%), education (+4%) and the environment (+1%). A net 9% think the health system will be worse.
  • 59% say country heading on right track and 30% wrong track. average for yeas was 65% to 23%.
  • Corporate net favourable ratings were NZ Post +84%, Telecom +27%, Air NZ +67%, TVNZ +60%
  • Bank favourability ratings are Kiwibank 65%, National 55%, ASB 55%, Westpac 55%, BNZ 49%, ANZ 45% and TSB 34%
  • Net favourability for Govt agencies are Fire Service +86%, Police +57%, Customs +63%, DOC +57%, MAF +36%, MOD +31%, Nat Lib +44%, MFish +34%, IRD +5%, MOT +5%, NZFSA +19%, Min Ed -4%, Min Health -7%, Treasury -6%, MOJ – 14%, DOL – 5%, Corrections -27%, ACC -37%, MSD -13% and TPK -7%
  • Confidence in institutions is Police +30%, GPs +29%, Unis +27%, primary schools +26%, military +6%, small business +5%, sec schools +3%, TV News -10%, banks -13%, public health system -18%, courts -16%, public service -29%, newspapers -33%, religion -34%, Parliament -43%, big business -40%, unions -42%, media generally -55%
  • Party Vote Dec 2009 is Nat 48%, Lab 35%, Greens 7.5%
  • Net favourability for John Key +54%, Phil Goff +9%,
  • Top five issues are economy 33%, unemployment 14%, crime 11%, health care 4%, politics/govt 4%
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 35.2% 44
Labour 29.7% 37
Act 9.6% 12
Green 10.8% 14
NZ First 7.4% 9
Maori 3.1% 6
CR 51.2% 65
CL 44.1% 57
Total 97.9% 122
14/10/24
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