Archives: TVNZ

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, of whom 840 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 10%

Dates: 14 February to 18 February 2015

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

• National 49.0% (+3.9%)
• Labour 31.0% (+5.8%
• Green 10.0% (-2.5%)
• ACT 0.3% (-0.3%)
• Maori 1.5% (-0.1%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• Mana 0.4% (-1.4%)
• NZ First 6.0% (-2.1%)
• Conservative 1.5% (-2.9%)

Projected Seats

• National 60
• Labour 39
• Green 12
• ACT 1
• Maori 2
• United Future 1
• NZ First 7
• Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 60 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 62/122 – the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 39 + Greens 12 = 51/122 – 11 fewer than minimum needed to govern
• C – Maori 2 + NZ First 7 = 9/122

On this poll National could form a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

• John Key 41% (-2.0%)
• Andrew Little 12% (nc from Cunliffe)
• Winston Peters 7% (+2.0%)

Islamic State

• 48% support sending New Zealand troops to help train Iraqi security forces to fight ISIS
• 42% opposed

Alcohol Sponsorship and Advertising

• 47% support a ban on alcohol sponsorship and advertising
• 45% opposed

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, of whom 838 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 10%

Dates: 12 September to 17 September 2014

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

• National 45.1% (-0.9%)
• Labour 25.2% (+0.2%
• Green 12.5% (-1.5%)
• ACT 0.6% (-0.6%)
• Maori 1.6% (+0.8%)
• United Future 0.0% (-0.2%)
• Mana/Internet 1.8% (+0.4%)
• NZ First 8.1% (+1.1%)
• Conservative 4.4% (+0.4%)

Projected Seats

• National 57
• Labour 32
• Green 16
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana/Internet 2
• NZ First 10
• Conservative 0
• Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/122 – three fewer than minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 32 + Greens 16 + Mana/Internet 2 = 50/122 – 12 fewer than minimum needed to govern
• C – Maori 3 + NZ First 10 = 13/122

On this poll the centre parties would hold the balance of power and National could form a centre-right Government with either the Maori Party or NZ First Party while Labour could only form a centre-left Government with both centre parties.

Preferred PM

• John Key 43% (-3.0%)
• David Cunliffe 12% (-2.0%)
• Winston Peters 5% (-1.0%)

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,001 respondents, of whom 865 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 12%

Dates: 06 September to 10 September 2014

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

• National 46.0% (-4.0%)
• Labour 25.0% (-1.0%
• Green 14.0% (+3.0%)
• ACT 1.2% (+1.1%)
• Maori 0.8% (+0.6%)
• United Future 0.2% (+0.1%)
• Mana/Internet 1.4% (-1.0%)
• NZ First 7.0% (nc)
• Conservative 4.0% (+1.1%)

Projected Seats

• National 58
• Labour 31
• Green 18
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana/Internet 3
• NZ First 9
• Conservative 0
• Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/123 – two fewer than minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 31 + Greens 18 + Mana/Internet 2 = 51/123 – 11 fewer than minimum needed to govern
• C – Maori 3 + NZ First 9 = 12/123

On this poll the centre parties would hold the balance of power and National could form a centre-right Government with either the Maori Party or NZ First Party while Labour could only form a centre-left Government with both centre parties.

Preferred PM

• John Key 46% (-2.0%)
• David Cunliffe 14% (nc)
• Winston Peters 6% (+2.0%)

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,001 respondents, of whom 882 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 7%

Dates: 30 August to 03 September 2014

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

• National 50.0% (+2.0%)
• Labour 26.0% (-2.0%
• Green 11.0% (-1.0%)
• ACT 0.1% (-0.3%)
• Maori 0.2% (-0.4%)
• United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
• Mana/Internet 2.4% (+0.8%)
• NZ First 7.0% (+1.0%)
• Conservative 2.9% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

• National 63
• Labour 32
• Green 14
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana/Internet 3
• NZ First 8
• Conservative 0
• Total 125

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 63 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 65/125 – two more than minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 32 + Greens 14 + Mana/Internet 3 = 49/125 – 14 fewer than minimum needed to govern
• C – Maori 3 + NZ First 8 = 11/125

On this poll National could form a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

• John Key 48% (+1.0%)
• David Cunliffe 14% (+2%)
• Winston Peters 4% (-1.0%)

Next National Party Leader

• Bill English 28%
• Steven Joyce 16%
• Paula Bennett 7%
• Judith Collins 2%
• Michael Woodhouse 2%

Economic Outlook

• Better 56% (nc)
• Worse 17% (-2%)
• Same 27% (+2%)

Preferred Housing Policies

• National 44%
• Labour 21%
• Greens 31%

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, of whom 843 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 12%

Dates: 23 to 27 August 2014

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

• National 48.0% (-2.0%)
• Labour 28.0% (+2.0%
• Green 12.0% (+1.0%)
• ACT 0.4% (+1.0%)
• Maori 0.6% (-0.3%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• Mana/Internet 1.6% (-2.3%)
• NZ First 6.0% (+1.0%)
• Conservative 3.2% (+0.8%)

Projected Seats

• National 59
• Labour 35
• Green 14
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana/Internet 2
• NZ First 8
• Conservative 0
• Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/123 – one fewer than minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 35 + Greens 14 + Mana/Internet 2 = 51/123 – 11 fewer than minimum needed to govern
• C – Maori 3 + NZ First 8 = 11/124

On this poll National could form a centre-right Governmentwith either the Maori Party or NZ First. Labour could form a Government with both NZ First and Maori Party (and Greens and Internet Mana).

Preferred PM

• John Key 47% (+2.0%)
• David Cunliffe 12% (+2%)
• Winston Peters 5% (+1.0%)

Economic Outlook

• Better 56% (+8%)
• Worse 19% (-3%)
• Same 25% (-5%)

Hager book

• Believe allegations 41% (+13%)
• Not believe 35% (-8%)
• Unsure 24% (-5%)
• Net negatively influenced view of National 13% (+8%)
• Collins should stand down 61% agree, 26% disagree
• Key informed of SIS OIA released – 41% believe he was not, 44% do not believe him

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, of whom 824 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 15%

Dates: 9 to 13 August 2014

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

• National 50.0% (-2.0%)
• Labour 26.0% (-2.0%
• Green 11.0% (+1.0%)
• ACT 0.6% (-0.2%)
• Maori 0.9% (+0.3%)
• United Future 0.0% (-0.2%)
• Mana/Internet 3.9% (+1.9%)
• NZ First 5.0% (+0.4%)
• Conservative 2.4% (+0.7%)

Projected Seats

• National 62
• Labour 31
• Green 13
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana/Internet 5
• NZ First 7
• Conservative 0
• Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 62 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 64/123 – two more than minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 31 + Greens 13 + Mana/Internet 5 = 49/123 – 13 fewer than minimum needed to govern
• C – Maori 3 + NZ First 7 = 10/123

On this poll National could form a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

• John Key 45% (-3.0%)
• David Cunliffe 10% (+2%)
• Winston Peters 4% (+1.0%)

A snap One News Colmar Brunton poll found:

• 77% have heard of Hager book, 23% have not
• 28% believe National organised smear campaigns, 43% do not and 29% unsure
• 9% say revelations have negatively influenced their view of National, 4% positively influences and 82% no difference
• 12% say now more likely to vote on election day, 1% less likely and 87% no difference

One News reports:

Colmar Brunton Epsom poll results:

Who would you vote for with your electorate vote?

National Paul Goldsmith 44%
Act David Seymour 32%
Labour Michael Wood 10%
Green Julie Anne Genter 9%
Conservative Christine Rankin 4%
Internet Mana Pat O’Dea 0.8%
Independent Grace Haden 0.3%
Don’t know 8%

Were you aware John key is encouraging National Party supporters to give their electorate vote to the Act Party candidate?

Yes 70%
No 28%
Don’t know 2%

With this in mind, who would you now vote for with your electorate vote?

National Paul Goldsmith 31%
Act David Seymour 45%
Labour Michael Wood 9%
Green Julie Anne Genter 10%
Conservative Christine Rankin 4%
Internet Mana Pat O’Dea .08%
Independent Grace Haden 0.1%
Don’t know 13%

Do you support or oppose arrangements like the one John Key has made with the Act Party in Epsom?

Support 47%
Oppose 37%
Don’t know 16%

Which political party would you vote for?

National 60%
Green 16%
Labour 14%
NZ First 3.3%
Act 2.7%
Conservative 2.1%
Internet Mana 1.5%
Maori 0.6%
Don’t know 6%

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,001 respondents, of whom 828 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 10%

Dates: 19 to 23 July 2014

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

• National 52.0% (+2.0%)
• Labour 28.0% (-1.0%)
• Green 10.0% (-2.0%)
• ACT 0.8% (+0.1%)
• Maori 0.6% (-0.6%)
• United Future 0.2% (+0.2%)
• Mana/Internet 2.0% (-0.3%)
• NZ First 4.4% (+0.6%)
• Conservative 1.7% (+0.7%)

Projected Seats

• National 66
• Labour 36
• Green 13
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana/Internet 3
• NZ First 0
• Conservative 0
• Internet 0
• Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 66 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 68/123 – six more than minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 36 + Greens 13 + Mana/Internet 3 = 52/123 – ten fewer than minimum needed to govern
• C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/123

On this poll National could form a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

• John Key 48% (+1.0%)
• David Cunliffe 8% (-2%)
• Winston Peters 3% (+1.0%)

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,002 respondents, of whom 813 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 15%

Dates: 21 to 25 June 2014

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

• National 50.0% (-1.0%)
• Labour 29.0% (-1.0%)
• Green 12.0% (+1.0%)
• ACT 0.7% (-0.1%)
• Maori 1.2% (+0.4%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• Mana/Internet 2.3% (+1.2%)
• NZ First 3.8% (-1.0%)
• Conservative 1.0% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

• National 64
• Labour 36
• Green 15
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana/Internet 3
• NZ First 0
• Conservative 0
• Internet 0
• Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 64 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 66/123 – four more than minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 36 + Greens 15 + Mana/Internet 3 = 54/123 – eight fewer than minimum needed to govern
• C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/123

On this poll National could form a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

• John Key 47% (+4.0%)
• David Cunliffe 10% (nc)
• Winston Peters 2% (-4.0%)

Coalitions

• 75% say parties should declare before election day who they would work with
• 19% disagree

Team NZ

• 62% say Team NZ should rely on private sponsorship from now on
• 30% say the Government should give Team NZ more money