Archives: Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan poll early June 2012

June 17, 2012

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,038, of whom 996 have a party preference

Undecideds: 4.0%

Dates: 28 May 2012 to 07 June 2012

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 46.0% (+2.0%)
  • Labour 31.0% (+0.5%)
  • Green 12.5% (-1.0%)
  • NZ First 5.5% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • ACT 0.0% (-1.0%)
  • Mana 1.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 56
  • Labour 38
  • Green 15
  • ACT 0
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats, except for National winning Epsom.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 56 + United Future 1 = 57/121 – 4 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 15 + NZ First 7 + Mana 1 = 61/121 – the minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 48.0% (-1.0%)
  • Wrong 37.5% (-0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 14.5% (+1.5%)
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Roy Morgan poll late May 2012

June 4, 2012

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 944, of whom 906 have a party preference

Undecideds: 4.0%

Dates: 14 May 2012 to 27 May 2012

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 44.0% (-0.5%)
  • Labour 30.5% (+0.5%)
  • Green 13.5% (-1.5%)
  • NZ First 5.0% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 2.0% (+1.0%)
  • United Future 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 1.0% (+1.0%)
  • Mana 1.0% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 55
  • Labour 38
  • Green 17
  • ACT 0
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 6
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats, except for National winning Epsom.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 55 + United Future 1 = 56/122 – 5 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 17 + NZ First 6 + Mana 1 = 62/121 – 1 more than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 49.0% (-2.0%)
  • Wrong 38.0% (+2.5%)
  • Can’t Say 13.0% (-0.5%)
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Roy Morgan poll early May 2012

June 4, 2012

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 894, of whom 849 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.0%

Dates: 30 April 2012 to 13 May 2012

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 44.5% (-2.5%)
  • Labour 30.0% (+1.5%)
  • Green 15.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 5.5% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 1.0% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • Mana 0.5% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 55
  • Labour 37
  • Green 18
  • ACT 0
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats, except for National winning Epsom.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 55 + United Future 1 = 56/122 – 6 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 18 + NZ First 7 + Mana 1 = 63/121 – 1 more than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 51.0% (-4.0%)
  • Wrong 35.5% (+2.5%)
  • Can’t Say 13.5% (-0.5%)
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Roy Morgan poll late April 2012

May 7, 2012

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 889, of whom 840 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.5%

Dates: 16 April 2012 to 29 April 2012

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 47.0% (-2.5%)
  • Labour 28.5% (+2.0%)
  • Green 15.0% (+2.5%)
  • NZ First 5.0% (-1.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (nc)
  • United Future 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • Mana 0.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 35
  • Green 18
  • ACT 0
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 6
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats, except for National winning Epsom.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 57 + United Future 1 = 58/121 – 3 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 35 + Greens 18 + NZ First 6 + Mana 1 = 60/121 – 1 fewer than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 55.0% (-0.5%)
  • Wrong 32.5% (+1.5%)
  • Can’t Say 12.5% (-1.0%)
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Roy Morgan Poll early April 2012

April 20, 2012

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 928, of whom 900 have a party preference

Undecideds: 3.0%

Dates: 02 April 2012 to 15 April 2012

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 49.5% (+5.5%)
  • Labour 26.5% (-4.0%)
  • Green 12.5% (-4.5%)
  • NZ First 6.5% (+1.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (nc)
  • United Future 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • Mana 1.0% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 61
  • Labour 32
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 8
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 61 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 63/122 – 1 more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 32 + Greens 15 + NZ First 8 + Mana 1 = 56/122 – 6 greater than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 55.5% (+2.0%)
  • Wrong 31.0% (+1.5%)
  • Can’t Say 13.5% (-3.5%)
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Roy Morgan Poll late March 2012

April 7, 2012

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 948, of whom 915 have a party preference

Undecideds: 3.5%

Dates: 12 March 2012 to 1 April 2012

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 44.0% (-4.5%)
  • Labour 30.5% (+0.5%)
  • Green 17.0% (+4.5%)
  • NZ First 5.0% (nc)
  • Maori 1.5% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • Mana 0.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 53
  • Labour 36
  • Green 20
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 6
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 53 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 55/122 – 6 less than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 20 + NZ First 6 + Mana 1 = 63/122 – 2 greater than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 53.5% (+1.0%)
  • Wrong 29.5% (-4.5%)
  • Can’t Say 17.0% (+3.5%)
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Roy Morgan Poll early March 2012

March 16, 2012

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 904, of whom 868 have a party preference

Undecideds: 4.0%

Dates: 27 February 2012 to 11 March 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 48.5% (+3.0%)
  • Labour 30.0% (-1.5%)
  • Green 12.5% (-0.5%)
  • NZ First 5.0% (nc)
  • Maori 1.0% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • Mana 0.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 59
  • Labour 36
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 6
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/122 – 1 less than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 15 + NZ First 6 + Mana 1 = 58/122 – 4 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 52.5% (-1.0%)
  • Wrong 34.0% (+1.5%)
  • Can’t Say 13.5% (-0.5%)
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Roy Morgan poll 24 November 2011

November 25, 2011

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 959, of whom 921 have a party preference

Undecideds: 4.0%

Dates: 22 to 24 November 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 49.5% (-3.5%)
  • Labour 23.5% (-1.0%)
  • Green 14.5% (+1.5%)
  • ACT 1.5% (nc)
  • Maori 1.0% (-2.0%)
  • United Future 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 6.5% (+3.5%)
  • Mana 0.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 29
  • Green 18
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 8
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, Mana and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram.Tonga.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 60 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 63/123 – 1 more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 29 + Greens 18 + NZ First 8 + Mana 1 = 57/122 – 5 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 49.5% (-11.0%)
  • Wrong 31.0% (+7.0%)
  • Can’t Say 19.5% (+4.0%)
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Roy Morgan early November 2011

November 11, 2011

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 911, of whom 847 have a party preference

Undecideds: 7.0%

Dates: 24 October to 06 November 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 53.0% (-0.5%)
  • Labour 26.0% (-3.5%)
  • Green 12.0% (+2.5%)
  • ACT 1.0% (nc)
  • Maori 2.0% (nc)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 4.5% (+2.0%)
  • Mana 1.0% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 67
  • Labour 33
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning three electorate seats, ACT, Mana and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram and Te Tai Tonga.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 67 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 69/121 – 8 more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 15 + Mana 1 = 49/122 – 12 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 58.5% (-2.5%)
  • Wrong 27.5% (+3.0%)
  • Can’t Say 14.0% (-0.5%)
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Roy Morgan late October 2011

November 1, 2011

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 933, of whom 872 have a party preference

Undecideds: 6.5%

Dates: 10 October to 23 October 2011

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 53.5% (-2.0%)
  • Labour 29.5% (+1.5%)
  • Green 9.5% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 2.0% (nc)
  • United Future 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 2.5% (+0.5%)
  • Mana 0.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 66
  • Labour 37
  • Green 12
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning three electorate seats, ACT, Mana and United Future one each, and Labour winning Wigram and Te Tai Tonga.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 66 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 68/121 – 7 more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 12 + Mana 1 = 50/122 – 11 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 61.0% (-1.0%)
  • Wrong 24.5% (nc)
  • Can’t Say 14.5% (+1.0%)
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 35.2% 44
Labour 29.7% 37
Act 9.6% 12
Green 10.8% 14
NZ First 7.4% 9
Maori 3.1% 6
CR 51.2% 65
CL 44.1% 57
Total 97.9% 122
14/10/24
Embed | Methodology

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