Archives: Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan poll late June 2014

July 6, 2014

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 817 of whom 772 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.5%

Dates: 16 June to 29 June 2014

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 48.0% (-1.5%)
  • Labour 28.0% (nc)
  • Green 12.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 5.5% (+1.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Mana/Internet 2.5% (nc)
  • Conservative 1.0% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 58
  • Labour 34
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 3
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/122 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 34 + Greens 15 + Mana/Internet 3 = 52/122 – ten fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 3 = 10/122

On this poll National (plus ACT/UFNZ) could form a Government with either the Maori Party or NZ First OR Labour could form a Government with both the Maori Party and NZ First (and Greens and NZ First).

Country Direction

  • Right 65.0% (+1.5%)
  • Wrong 23.5% (-0.5)
  • Can’t Say 11.5% (-1.0%)
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Roy Morgan poll mid June 2014

June 19, 2014

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 845 of whom 803 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.0%

Dates: 02 June to 15 June 2014

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 49.5% (+7.0%)
  • Labour 28.0% (-1.5%)
  • Green 12.0% (-4.5%)
  • NZ First 4.0% (-1.5%)
  • Maori 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • Mana/Internet 2.5% (-0.5%)
  • Conservative 1.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 64
  • Labour 36
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 3
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 64 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 66/123 – four more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 15 + Mana 3 = 54/123 – eight fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/123

On this poll National would form a Government.

Country Direction

  • Right 63.5% (-1.0%)
  • Wrong 24.0% (nc)
  • Can’t Say 12.5% (+1.0%)
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Roy Morgan poll late May 2014

June 6, 2014

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 849 of whom 802 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.5%

Dates: 19 May to 01 June 2014

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 52.5% (+7.0%)
  • Labour 29.0% (-1.5%)
  • Green 9.0% (-4.5%)
  • NZ First 4.5% (-1.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Mana/Internet 1.0% (-0.5%)
  • Conservative 1.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 67
  • Labour 37
  • Green 12
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 67 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 69/122 – seven more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 12 + Mana 1 = 50/122 – 12 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/122

On this poll National would form a Government.

Country Direction

  • Right 64.5% (+4.5%)
  • Wrong 24.0% (-4.0%)
  • Can’t Say 11.5% (-0.5%)
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Most important issues

May 31, 2014

Roy Morgan reports:

When asked about the most important problem facing New Zealand, 44% of New Zealanders mention some kind of Economic issue. This is up 2% since February 2014 and still well ahead of Social issues (21%, unchanged), Government/ Public policy/ Human rights issues (18%, down 1%) and Environmental issues (8%, down 1%).

The most important Economic issues facing New Zealand include Poverty / The gap between the rich and the poor (18%, up 2%), Economy/ Financial crisis/ Recession/ Inflation/ Exchange rate/ High dollar (8%, down 2%), Unemployment/ Job security (8%, up 1%) and the Cost of living/ Increasing prices/ Financial hardship/ Household debt (5%, unchanged).

Other important issues mentioned by New Zealanders are the Government/ Politicians/ Leadership/ Government spending (6%, down 2%), Drugs/ Alcohol Issues/ Drink Driving (5%, up 1%), Housing shortage/ Affordability (5%, up 2%),  Social apathy/ Lack of values/ Lack of empathy towards others/ Intolerance (4%, down 1%) and Education (3%, unchanged).

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Roy Morgan poll early May 2014

May 22, 2014

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 873 of whom 825 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.5%

Dates: 05 May to 18 May 2014

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 45.5% (+3.0%)
  • Labour 30.5% (-0.5%)
  • Green 13.5% (-1.0%)
  • NZ First 6.0% (nc)
  • Maori 1.0% (nc)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • Mana 1.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Internet 0.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 56
  • Labour 37
  • Green 17
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 56 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 58/123 – four fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 17 + Mana 1 = 55/123 – seven fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 3 = 10/123

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 60.0% (-2.0%)
  • Wrong 28.0% (+1.5%)
  • Can’t Say 12.0% (+0.5%)
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Roy Morgan poll mid March 2014

March 30, 2014

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 873 of whom 838 have a party preference

Undecideds: 4.0%

Dates: 03 March to 16 March 2014

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 45.5% (-3.0%)
  • Labour 31.5% (+1.0%)
  • Green 14.0% (+3.5%)
  • NZ First 3.5% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 2.0% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Mana 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • Conservative 1.5% (-1.0%)
  • Internet 0.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 40
  • Green 18
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/121 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 40 + Greens 18 + Mana 1 = 59/121 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/121

On this poll the Maori Party would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 61.0% (-4.0%)
  • Wrong 25.5% (+2.0)
  • Can’t Say 13.5% (+2.0%)
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Roy Morgan poll early March 2014

March 7, 2014

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 977 of whom 943 have a party preference

Undecideds: 3.5%

Dates: 17 February to 02 March 2014

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 48.5% (+0.5%)
  • Labour 30.5% (+0.5%)
  • Green 10.5% (-1.5%)
  • NZ First 4.5% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 1.5% (+1.0%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (nc)
  • Mana 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Conservative 2.5% (+1.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 62
  • Labour 39
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 62 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 64/121 – three more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 39 + Greens 14 + Mana 1 = 54/121 – seven fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/121

On this poll a centre-right Government would be formed.

Country Direction

  • Right 65.0% (+1.5%)
  • Wrong 23.5% (nc)
  • Can’t Say 11.5% (-1.5%)
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Roy Morgan poll mid February 2014

February 20, 2014

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 859 of whom 825 have a party preference

Undecideds: 4.0%

Dates: 03 February to 16 February 2014

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 48.0% (+1.0%)
  • Labour 30.0% (-3.0%)
  • Green 12.0% (+1.0%)
  • NZ First 5.5% (+1.0%)
  • Maori 0.5% (-1.0%)
  • United Future 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 1.0% (+1.0%)
  • Mana 1.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 1.0% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 58
  • Labour 36
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/122 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 15 + Mana 1 = 52/123 – ten fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 3 = 7/123

On this poll a centre-right Government could be formed with the Maori Party or NZ First. A centre-left Government would need both the Maori Party and NZ First.

Country Direction

  • Right 63.5% (nc)
  • Wrong 23.5% (-1.0%)
  • Can’t Say 13.0% (+1.0%)
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Roy Morgan poll early Feb 2014

February 15, 2014

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 846 of whom 812 have a party preference

Undecideds: 4.0%

Dates: 20 January to 02 February 2014

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 47.0% (+3.5%)
  • Labour 33.0% (-0.5%)
  • Green 11.0% (-1.5%)
  • NZ First 4.5% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 0.0% (nc)
  • Mana 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Conservative 1.5% (-1.01.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 61
  • Labour 42
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 61 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 63/123 – one more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 42 + Greens 14 + Mana 1 = 57/123 – five fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/123

On this poll there would be a centre-right Government,

Country Direction

  • Right 63.5% (+0.5%)
  • Wrong 24.5% (+1.0%)
  • Can’t Say 12.0% (-1.5%)
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Roy Morgan poll mid January 2014

February 3, 2014

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,509 of whom 1,449 have a party preference

Undecideds: 4.0%

Dates: 06 January to 19 January 2014

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 43.5% (-1.5%)
  • Labour 33.5% (+3.0%)
  • Green 12.5% (-2.0%)
  • NZ First 4.0% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 2.0% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 0.0% (nc)
  • Mana 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Conservative 2.5% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 56
  • Labour 43
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 56 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 58/121 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 43 + Greens 16 + Mana 1 = 60/121 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/122

On this poll the Maori Party would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 63.0% (+4.5%)
  • Wrong 23.5% (-5.0%)
  • Can’t Say 13.5% (+0.5%)
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 35.2% 44
Labour 29.7% 37
Act 9.6% 12
Green 10.8% 14
NZ First 7.4% 9
Maori 3.1% 6
CR 51.2% 65
CL 44.1% 57
Total 97.9% 122
14/10/24
Embed | Methodology

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