Archives: Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan poll July 2015

July 18, 2015

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 886 of whom 837 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.5%

Dates: 29 June to 12 July 2015

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 43.0% (-6.5%)
  • Labour 32.0% (+6.0%)
  • Green 13.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 7.0% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Mana/Internet 0.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 1.5% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 53
  • Labour 39
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 9
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 53 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 55/121 – six fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 39 + Greens 16 = 55/121 – six fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 9 + Maori 2 = 11/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 51.0% (-11.5%)
  • Wrong 33.0% (+6.0%)
  • Can’t Say 16.0% (+5.5%)
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Roy Morgan poll June 2015

June 24, 2015

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 866 of whom 823 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.0%

Dates: 08 June to 21 June 2015

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 49.5% (-4.5%)
  • Labour 26.0% (+0.5%)
  • Green 13.0% (+2.5%)
  • NZ First 6.5% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 1.0% (nc)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 0.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 1.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 62
  • Labour 32
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 8
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 62 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 64/121 – three more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 32 + Greens 16 = 48/121 – 13 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 8 + Maori 1 = 9/121

On this poll National could govern alone.

Country Direction

  • Right 62.5% (-0.5%)
  • Wrong 27.0% (+0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 10.5% (-0.5%)
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Roy Morgan poll May 2015

May 26, 2015

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 866 of whom 823 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.0%

Dates: 04 May to 17 May 2015

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 54.0% (+8.5%)
  • Labour 25.5% (-2.0%)
  • Green 10.5% (-3.0%)
  • NZ First 6.0% (-2.5%)
  • Maori 1.0% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 0.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 1.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 67
  • Labour 31
  • Green 13
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 67 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 69/121 – eight more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 31 + Greens 13 = 44/121 – 17 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 1 = 8/121

On this poll National could govern alone.

Country Direction

  • Right 63.0% (+1.0%)
  • Wrong 26.5% (-0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 10.5% (-0.5%)
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Roy Morgan poll April 2015

April 23, 2015

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 888 of whom 852 have a party preference

Undecideds: 4.0%

Dates: 06 April to 19 April 2015

Client: Self Published

Report: Scoop

Party Support

  • National 45.5% (-1.0%)
  • Labour 27.5% (-3.5%)
  • Green 13.5% (+2.5%)
  • NZ First 8.5% (+2.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 0.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 1.0% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 56
  • Labour 34
  • Green 17
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 10
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 56 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 58/121 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 34 + Greens 17 = 51/121 – ten fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 10 + Maori 2 = 13/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 62.0% (-2.5%)
  • Wrong 27.0% (+3.0%)
  • Can’t Say 11.0% (-0.5%)
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Roy Morgan poll early February 2015

February 23, 2015

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 891 of whom 846 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.0%

Dates: 02 September to 15 February 2015

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 49.0% (-3.0%)
  • Labour 30.0% (+4.0%)
  • Green 12.0% (+1.0%)
  • NZ First 6.0% (nc)
  • Maori 1.0% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.0% (-1.0%)
  • Mana/Internet 0.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 1.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 37
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 60 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 62/122 – the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Greens 15 = 52/122 – ten fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 1 = 8/122

On this poll National could form a centre-right Government.

Country Direction

  • Right 55.0% (-12.0%)
  • Wrong 31.0% (+8.0%)
  • Can’t Say 14.0% (+4.0%)
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Roy Morgan poll mid September 2014

September 17, 2014

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 935 of whom 888 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.0%

Dates: 01 September to 14 September 2014

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 46.5% (+1.5%)
  • Labour 24.0% (-2.0%)
  • Green 13.5% (-2.5%)
  • NZ First 8.0% (+2.0%)
  • Maori 1.5% (+1.0%)
  • United Future 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Mana/Internet 1.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 3.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 58
  • Labour 30
  • Green 17
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 1
  • NZ First 10
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/121 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 30 + Greens 17 + Mana/Internet 1 = 48/121 – thirteen fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 10 + Maori 3 = 13/121

On this poll NZ First and the Maori Party would have the balance of power. National could govern with either of them, while Labour would need both of them.

Country Direction

  • Right 62.0% (+1.0%)
  • Wrong 24.0% (-1.0%)
  • Can’t Say 14.0% (nc)

 

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Roy Morgan poll late August 2014

September 3, 2014

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 762 of whom 735 have a party preference

Undecideds: 3.5%

Dates: 18 August to 31 August 2014

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 45.0% (-3.0%)
  • Labour 26.0% (-1.5%)
  • Green 16.0% (+4.5%)
  • NZ First 6.0% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Mana/Internet 1.0% (-1.5%)
  • Conservative 3.5% (+2.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 56
  • Labour 33
  • Green 20
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 1
  • NZ First 8
  • Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 56 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 58/123 – four fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 20 + Mana/Internet 1 = 54/123 – eight fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 8 + Maori 3 = 11/123

On this poll NZ First would have the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 61.0% (-2.5%)
  • Wrong 25.0% (+0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 14.0% (+2.0%)

 

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Roy Morgan poll early August 2014

August 20, 2014

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 809 of whom 756 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.5%

Dates: 4 August to 17 August 2014

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 48.0% (+2.0%)
  • Labour 27.5% (-2.5%)
  • Green 11.5% (-0.5%)
  • NZ First 6.5% (+1.5%)
  • Maori 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 2.5% (nc)
  • Conservative 1.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 58
  • Labour 34
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 3
  • NZ First 8
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/122 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 34 + Greens 14 + Mana/Internet 3 = 51/122 – eleven fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 8 + Maori 3 = 11/121

On this poll National (plus ACT/UFNZ) could govern with either the Maori Party or NZ First while Labour (plus Greens/Mana) could only govern if both NZ First and the Maori Party supported them.

Country Direction

  • Right 63.5% (+3.5%)
  • Wrong 24.5% (-0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 12.0% (-3.0%)

 

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Roy Morgan poll late July 2014

August 3, 2014

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 818 of whom 765 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.5%

Dates: 14 July to 27 July 2014

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 46.0% (-5.0%)
  • Labour 30.0% (+6.5%)
  • Green 12.0% (-3.0%)
  • NZ First 5.0% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 1.5% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 2.5% (+1.0%)
  • Conservative 1.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 56
  • Labour 36
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 3
  • NZ First 6
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 56 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 58/121 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 15 + Mana/Internet 3 = 54/121 – seven fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 6 + Maori 3 = 9/121

On this poll National (plus ACT/UFNZ) could govern with either the Maori Party or NZ First while Labour (plus Greens/Mana) could only govern if both NZ First and the Maori Party supported them.

Country Direction

  • Right 60.0% (-5.5%)
  • Wrong 25.0% (+2.0)
  • Can’t Say 15.0% (+3.5%)
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Roy Morgan poll early July 2014

July 16, 2014

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 819 of whom 774 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.5%

Dates: 30 June to 13 July 2014

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 51.0% (+3.0%)
  • Labour 23.5% (-4.5%)
  • Green 15.0% (+3.0%)
  • NZ First 6.0% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 1.0% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Mana/Internet 1.5% (-1.0%)
  • Conservative 1.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 62
  • Labour 28
  • Green 18
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana/Internet 2
  • NZ First 7
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 62 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 64/122 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 28 + Greens 18 + Mana/Internet 2 = 48/122 – fourteen fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 7 + Maori 3 = 10/122

On this poll National (plus ACT/UFNZ) would form a Government.

Country Direction

  • Right 65.5% (+0.5%)
  • Wrong 23.0% (-0.5)
  • Can’t Say 11.5% (nc)
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 35.2% 44
Labour 29.7% 37
Act 9.6% 12
Green 10.8% 14
NZ First 7.4% 9
Maori 3.1% 6
CR 51.2% 65
CL 44.1% 57
Total 97.9% 122
14/10/24
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