Archives: Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan poll March 2017

March 26, 2017

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 847 of whom 783 have a party preference

Undecideds: 7.5%

Dates: 27 February to 12 March 2017

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 43.5% (-4.5%)
  • Labour 29.5% (+3.5%)
  • Green 14.5% (+1.5%)
  • NZ First 7.5% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 2.0% (nc)
  • United Future 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Mana/Internet 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • Conservative 0.5% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 53
  • Labour 36
  • Green 18
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 9
  • Total 120

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 53 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 55/120 – six fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 18 = 54/120 – seven fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 9 + Maori 2 = 11/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 61.5% (-2.0%)
  • Wrong 25.5% (+2.0%)
  • Can’t Say 13.0% (nc)
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Roy Morgan poll February 2017

February 28, 2017

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 852 of whom 805 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.5%

Dates: 30 January to 12 February 2017

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 48.0% (+2.0%)
  • Labour 26.0% (-1.0%)
  • Green 13.0% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 8.0% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 2.0% (nc)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Mana/Internet 0.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 0.0% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 59
  • Labour 32
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 10
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/121 – the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 32 + Greens 16 = 48/121 – thirteen fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 10 + Maori 2 = 12/121

On this poll National would govern with ACT and United Future.

Country Direction

  • Right 63.5% (+0.5%)
  • Wrong 23.5% (+0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 13.0% (-1.0%)

Most Important Issues

  • Housing 26% (-1%)
  • Poverty 17% (+1%)
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Roy Morgan poll January 2017

February 3, 2017

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 868 of whom 812 have a party preference

Undecideds: 6.5%

Dates: 03 January to 16 January 2017

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 46.0% (+1.0%)
  • Labour 27.0% (-1.5%)
  • Green 12.5% (-2.0%)
  • NZ First 9.0% (+1.5%)
  • Maori 2.0% (+1.0)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • Conservative 0.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 33
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 11
  • Total 120

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/120 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 15 = 48/120 – thirteen fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 11 + Maori 2 = 13/120

On this poll National could govern with either the Maori Party or NZ First while Labour/Greens would need both NZ First and the Maori Party.

Country Direction

  • Right 63.0% (+4.5%)
  • Wrong 23.0% (-4.5%)
  • Can’t Say 14.0% (+3.0%)
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Roy Morgan poll December 2016

December 26, 2016

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 872 of whom 824 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.5%

Dates: 28 November to 11 December 2016

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 45.0% (-4.5%)
  • Labour 28.5% (+5.5%)
  • Green 14.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 7.5% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 1.0% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Mana/Internet 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • Conservative 0.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 55
  • Labour 35
  • Green 18
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 9
  • Total 120

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 55 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 57/120 – four fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 35 + Greens 18 = 53/120 – eight fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 9 + Maori 1 = 10/120

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power

Country Direction

  • Right 58.5% (-6.5%)
  • Wrong 27.5% (+3.5%)
  • Can’t Say 14.0% (+3.0%)
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Roy Morgan poll November 2016

December 1, 2016

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 858 of whom 802 have a party preference

Undecideds: 6.5%

Dates: early November to 20 November 2016

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 49.5% (+1.5%)
  • Labour 23.0% (-3.5%)
  • Green 14.5% (+3.0%)
  • NZ First 8.0% (-2.0%)
  • Maori 1.5% (nc)
  • United Future 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Mana/Internet 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • Conservative 0.5% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 28
  • Green 18
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 10
  • Total 120

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 60 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 62/121 – the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 28 + Greens 18 = 46/121 – 15 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 10 + Maori 2 = 14/121

On this poll National could govern with ACT and/or United Future.

Country Direction

  • Right 65.0% (+9.5%)
  • Wrong 24.0% (-5.0%)
  • Can’t Say 11.0% (-4.5%)
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Roy Morgan poll October 2016

November 4, 2016

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 873 of whom 816 have a party preference

Undecideds: 6.5%

Dates: early October to 23 October 2016

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 48.0% (+6.5%)
  • Labour 26.5% (-7.0%)
  • Green 11.5% (-0.5%)
  • NZ First 10.0% (+1.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Mana/Internet 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • Conservative 0.0% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 59
  • Labour 32
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 12
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/121 – the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 32 + Greens 14 = 46/121 – 15 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 12 + Maori 2 = 14/121

On this poll National could govern with ACT and United Future.

Country Direction

  • Right 55.5% (+3.5%)
  • Wrong 29.0% (-6.0%)
  • Can’t Say 15.5% (+2.5%)
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Roy Morgan poll September 2016

September 28, 2016

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 864 of whom 812 have a party preference

Undecideds: 6.0%

Dates: early August to 18 September 2016

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 41.5% (-4.5%)
  • Labour 33.5% (+8.0%)
  • Green 12.0% (-2.5%)
  • NZ First 8.5% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 2.0% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 0.0% (-0.5)
  • Conservative 0.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 51
  • Labour 41
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 10
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 51 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 53/121 – eight fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 41 + Greens 15 = 56/121 – five fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 10 + Maori 2 = 14/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 52.0% (-6.0%)
  • Wrong 35.0% (+4.5%)
  • Can’t Say 13.0% (+1.5%)
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Roy Morgan poll August 2016

August 30, 2016

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 845 of whom 794 have a party preference

Undecideds: 6.0%

Dates: early August to 21 August 2016

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 46.0% (-7.0%)
  • Labour 25.5% (nc)
  • Green 14.5% (+3.0%)
  • NZ First 9.5% (+2.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (+1.0%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (nc)
  • Mana/Internet 0.5% (nc)
  • Conservative 1.0% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 56
  • Labour 31
  • Green 18
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 12
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 56 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 58/121 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 31 + Greens 18 = 49/121 – 12 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 12 + Maori 2 = 14/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 58.0% (+0.5%)
  • Wrong 30.5% (nc)
  • Can’t Say 11.5% (-0.5%)
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Roy Morgan poll July 2016

July 21, 2016

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 864 of whom 799 have a party preference

Undecideds: 7.5%

Dates: early July to 17 June 2016

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 53.0% (+10.0%)
  • Labour 25.5% (-2.5%)
  • Green 11.5% (-3.0%)
  • NZ First 7.0% (-2.0%)
  • Maori 0.5% (-1.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Mana/Internet 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Conservative 0.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 64
  • Labour 31
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 9
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 64 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 66/121 – five more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 31 + Greens 14 = 45/121 – 16 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 9 + Maori 1 = 10/121

On this poll National could govern alone.

Country Direction

  • Right 57.5% (+3.0%)
  • Wrong 30.5% (-3.5%)
  • Can’t Say 12.0% (+0.5%)
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Roy Morgan poll June 2016

June 20, 2016

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: No

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 868 of whom 820 have a party preference

Undecideds: 5.5%

Dates: early June to 12 June 2016

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan

Party Support

  • National 43.0% (-2.5%)
  • Labour 28.0% (-1.5%)
  • Green 14.5% (+2.5%)
  • NZ First 9.0% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 2.0% (+1.0%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Mana/Internet 1.0% (+1.0%)
  • Conservative 1.0% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 53
  • Labour 35
  • Green 18
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 11
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 53 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 55/121 – six fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 35 + Greens 18 = 53/121 – eight fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 11 + Maori 2 = 13/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Country Direction

  • Right 54.5% (-4.5%)
  • Wrong 34.0% (+5.0%)
  • Can’t Say 11.5% (-0.5%)
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 35.2% 44
Labour 29.7% 37
Act 9.6% 12
Green 10.8% 14
NZ First 7.4% 9
Maori 3.1% 6
CR 51.2% 65
CL 44.1% 57
Total 97.9% 122
14/10/24
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