Archives: Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan late January 2009

February 10, 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 982 (3.3% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 19 January to 1 February 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 48.0% (nc)
  • Labour 31.0% (-2.0%)
  • Green 9.0% (+1.0%)
  • NZ First 3.0% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 3.5% (nc)
  • United Future 1.0% (nc)
  • ACT 3.5% (+0.5%)
  • Progressive 0.5% (nc)
  • Other 0.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 39
  • Green 11
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 4
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 60 + ACT 4 = 64/121 – majority possible
  • Labour 39 + Progressive 1 + Greens 11 + Maori 5 = 56/122 = majority not possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 62 is shown. The Maori Party is the only party assumed to be able to go with National or Labour.

Country Direction

  • Right 65.0% (-2.0%)
  • Wrong 20.0% (+1.0%)
  • Can’t Say 15.0% (+1.0%)
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Roy Morgan Poll January 2009

January 31, 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,922 (2.3% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 02 January to 18 January 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 48.0% (+1.0%)
  • Labour 33.0% (+1.5%)
  • Green 8.0% (-1.5%)
  • NZ First 2.5% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 3.5% (+1.5%)
  • United Future 1.0% (nc)
  • ACT 3.0% (-1.0%)
  • Progressive 0.5% (nc)
  • Other 0.5% (-1.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 59
  • Labour 41
  • Green 10
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 4
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 59 + ACT 4 = 63/121 – majority possible
  • Labour 41 + Progressive 1 + Greens 10 + Maori 5 = 57/122 = majority not possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 62 is shown. The Maori Party is the only party assumed to be able to go with National or Labour.

Country Direction

  • Right 67.0% (+4.0%)
  • Wrong 19.0% (-1.0%)
  • Can’t Say 14.0% (-3.0%)
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Roy Morgan Poll mid December 2008

December 19, 2008

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 948 (3.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 01 December to 14 December 2008

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 47.0% (+3.0%)
  • Labour 31.5% (-1.0%)
  • Green 9.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 3.0% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 2.0% (-1.5%)
  • United Future 1.0% (nc)
  • ACT 4.0% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.5% (nc)
  • Other 1.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 59
  • Labour 39
  • Green 12
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 5
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 59 + ACT 5 = 64/122 – majority possible
  • Labour 39 + Progressive 1 + Greens 12 + Maori 5 = 57/122 = majority not possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 62 is shown. The Maori Party is the only party assumed to be able to go with National or Labour.

Country Direction

  • Right 63.0% (-3.0%)
  • Wrong 20.0% (+1.0%)
  • Can’t Say 17.0% (+2.0%)
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Roy Morgan Poll late November 2008

December 7, 2008

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 908 (3.5% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 16 November to 30 November 2008

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 44.0% (+2.0%)
  • Labour 32.5% (-2.0%)
  • Green 9.5% (-0.5%)
  • NZ First 3.5% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 3.5% (+1.0%)
  • United Future 1.0% (nc)
  • ACT 4.0% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
  • Other 1.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 56
  • Labour 42
  • Green 12
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 5
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 56 + ACT 5 + United Future = 62/122 – majority possible
  • Labour 42 + Progressive 1 + Greens 12 + Maori 5 = 60/122 = majority not possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 62 is shown. The Maori Party is the only party assumed to be able to go with National or Labour.

Country Direction

  • Right 66.0% (+14.5%)
  • Wrong 19.0% (-16.0%)
  • Can’t Say 15.0% (+1.5%)
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Roy Morgan early November 2008

November 8, 2008

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1038 (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 20 October to 02 November 2008

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 42.0% (-1.0%)
  • Labour 34.5% (+2.5%)
  • Green 10.0% (-1.5%)
  • NZ First 4.5% (nc)
  • Maori 2.5% (nc)
  • United Future 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 4.0% (+0.5%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • Other 1.5% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 54
  • Labour 44
  • Green 13
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 5
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 54 + ACT 5 + United Future 1 + Maori 4 = 64/122 – majority possible
  • Labour 44 + Progressive 1 + Greens 13 + Maori 4 = 62/122 = majority possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 62 is shown. It is assumed ACT and United would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour.

Country Direction

  • Right 51.5% (-1.5%)
  • Wrong 35.0% (+0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 13.5% (+1.0%)
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Roy Morgan Poll mid October 2008

October 25, 2008

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 743 (3.7% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 06 October to 19 October 2008

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 43.0% (+2.5%)
  • Labour 32.0% (-5.5%)
  • Green 11.5% (+2.5%)
  • NZ First 4.5% (+0.5%)
  • Maori 2.5% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 3.5% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Other 2.0% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 55
  • Labour 41
  • Green 15
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 6
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 4
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 55 + ACT 4 + United Future 1 + Maori 6 = 66/123 – majority possible
  • Labour 41 + Progressive 1 + Greens 15 + Maori 6 = 63/123 = majority possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 62 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.

Country Direction

  • Right 53.0% (+5.0%)
  • Wrong 34.5% (-5.0%)
  • Can’t Say 12.5% (-2.5%)
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Roy Morgan

October 11, 2008

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 923 (3.3% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 22 September to 05 Friday 2008

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 40.5% (-7.0%)
  • Labour 37.5% (+1.0%)
  • Green 9.0% (+2.5%)
  • NZ First 4.0% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 2.0% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 3.5% (+2.0%)
  • Progressive 1.0% (+1.0%)
  • Other 1.5% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 52
  • Labour 48
  • Green 11
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 6
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 4
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 52 + ACT 4 + United Future 1 + Maori 6 = 63/123 – majority possible
  • National 57 + ACT4 + Maori 6 = 62/123 – majority possible
  • Labour 48 + Progressive 1 + Greens 11 + Maori 6 = 66/123 = majority possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 63 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.

Country Direction

  • Right 48.0% (+4.0%)
  • Wrong 39.5% (-1.5%)
  • Can’t Say 12.5% (-2.5%)
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Green Party Polling

September 19, 2008

This follows on from the NZ First poll comparison. Again Roy Morgan has the Green Party higher than the otehr companies – but less so than with New Zealand First.

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Polling on New Zealand First

September 19, 2008

The graph above shows how NZ First have done in every public poll since the 2005 election.

There appears to be a significant difference between the level of support for NZ First in the Roy Morgan polls, as opposed to the five other polling companies. This is not to say Roy Morgan is necessarily wrong – just that there is some sort of systematic or methodological recurring reason why they show a higher level of support.

I don’t have available the full methodology used by Roy Morgan, so it is hard to speculate on why they get such different results. It might be linked to the fact they poll around 60 people a day and report in two week intervals, rather than the shorter time frames of the other polls.

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Roy Morgan Poll early September 2008

September 18, 2008

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 823 (3.5% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 01 September to 14 September 2008

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 47.5% (+3.0%)
  • Labour 36.5% (-1.5%)
  • Green 6.5% (-1.5%)
  • NZ First 5.0% (+2.5%)
  • Maori 1.5% (-2.0%)
  • United Future 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 1.5% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
  • Other 1.0% (nc)
Projected Seats
  • National 57
  • Labour 44
  • Green 8
  • NZ First 6
  • Maori 6
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 2
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 125
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
  • National 57 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 + Maori 6 = 66/125 – majority possible
  • National 57 +Maori 6 = 63/125 – majority possible
  • Labour 44 + Progressive 1 + Greens 8 + NZ First 6 + Maori 6 = 65/125 = majority possible
The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 63 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.
Country Direction
  • Right 44.0% (-6.5%)
  • Wrong 41.0% (+5.5%)
  • Can’t Say 15.0% (+1.0%)
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 34.5% 44
Labour 29.3% 37
Green 10.2% 13
Act 9.8% 12
NZ First 5.8% 7
TPM 5.9% 7
CR 50.2% 63
CL 45.3% 57
Total 96.3% 120
27/11/24
Embed | Methodology

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