Archives: Roy Morgan

Roy Morgan Poll mid July 2009

July 26, 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 871 (3.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 6 July to 19 July 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 52.0% (-2.0%)
  • Labour 30.0% (-1.5%)
  • Green 10.0% (+2.0%)
  • ACT 1.0% (nc)
  • Maori 3.5% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • NZ First 2.0% (+1.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 65
  • Labour 37
  • Green 12
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 65 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 67/122 – 5 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Progressive 1 + Greens 12 = 50/122 -12 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 66.5% (+3.5%)
  • Wrong 20.5% (-2.5%)
  • Can’t Say 13.0% (-1.0%)
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Roy Morgan late June 2009 poll

July 20, 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 871 (3.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 22 June to 5 July 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 54.0% (+2.0%)
  • Labour 31.5% (-1.5%)
  • Green 8.0% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 1.0% (-1.5)
  • Maori 3.0% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 1.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 65
  • Labour 38
  • Green 10
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 65 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 67/121 – 6 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Progressive 1 + Greens 10 = 49/121 -12 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 63.0% (-6.0%)
  • Wrong 23.0% (+4.5%)
  • Can’t Say 14.0% (+1.5%)
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Roy Morgan mid June 2009 poll

July 20, 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 868 (3.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 01 June to 14 June 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 52.0% (nc)
  • Labour 33.0% (+2.0%)
  • Green 7.5% (-1.0%)
  • ACT 2.5% (+0.5)
  • Maori 2.5% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 1.0% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 63
  • Labour 40
  • Green 9
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 63 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 67/122 – 5 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 40 + Progressive 1 + Greens 0 = 50/122 -12 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 69.0% (+3.5%)
  • Wrong 18.5% (-1.5%)
  • Can’t Say 12.5% (-2.0%
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Roy Morgan Poll early June 2009

June 6, 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 866 (3.4% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 18 May to 31 May 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 52.0% (nc)
  • Labour 31.0% (-0.5%)
  • Green 8.5% (-1.0%)
  • ACT 2.0% (nc)
  • Maori 3.0% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 1.5% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 64
  • Labour 38
  • Green 10
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 64 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 67/121 – 6 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Progressive 1 + Greens 10 = 49/121 -12 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 65.5% (-2.0%)
  • Wrong 20.0% (+0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 14.5% (+1.5%
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Roy Morgan Poll late May 2009

May 26, 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 985 (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 04 May to 17 May 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 52.0% (-3.0%)
  • Labour 31.5% (+1.0%)
  • Green 9.5% (+2.5%)
  • ACT 2.0% (nc)
  • Maori 2.5% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • Progressive 0.5% (nc)
  • NZ First 1.0% (-1.0%)

Projected Seats

  • National 63
  • Labour 38
  • Green 2
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 63 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 66/124 – 4 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Progressive 1 + Greens 12 = 51/124 -11 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 67.5% (+1.0%)
  • Wrong 19.5% (-0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 13.0% (-0.5%
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Roy Morgan Poll early May 2009

May 9, 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 896 (3.3% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 20 April to 03 May 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 55.0% (+5.0%)
  • Labour 30.5% (-2.0%)
  • Green 7.0% (-1.5%)
  • ACT 2.0% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 2.0% (-1.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • Progressive 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 2.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 68
  • Labour 38
  • Green 9
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 68 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 72/124 – 9 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 37 + Progressive 1 + Greens 9 = 47/124 -16 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 66.5% (-2.0%)
  • Wrong 20.0% (+3.0%)
  • Can’t Say 13.5% (-1.0%
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Roy Morgan Poll mid April 2009

May 1, 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 897 (3.3% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 06 April to 19 April 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 50.0% (+0.5%)
  • Labour 32.5% (+3.5%)
  • Green 8.5% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 2.5% (-1.5%)
  • Maori 3.5% (-0.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 2.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 62
  • Labour 40
  • Green 10
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 62 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 66/122 – 4 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 40 + Progressive 1 + Greens 10 = 51/122 -11 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 68.5% (+2.5%)
  • Wrong 17.0% (-5.0%)
  • Can’t Say 14.5% (+1.5%)
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Roy Morgan poll early April 2009

April 10, 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 910 (3.3% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 23 March to 05 April 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 49.5% (-5.0%)
  • Labour 29.0% (nc)
  • Green 9.0% (+1.0%)
  • ACT 4.0% (+1.5%)
  • Maori 4.0% (+2.0%)
  • United Future 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (-0.5%)
  • NZ First 2.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 62
  • Labour 36
  • Green 11
  • ACT 5
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 62 + ACT 5 + United Future 1 = 68/121 – 7 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Progressive 1 + Greens 11 = 48/121 -13 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 65.0% (-2.5%)
  • Wrong 22.0% (+2.0%)
  • Can’t Say 13.0% (+0.5%)
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Roy Morgan Poll Mid March 2009

March 21, 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 900 (3.3% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 02 March to 15 March 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 54.5% (-1.5%)
  • Labour 29.0% (+3.0%)
  • Green 8.0% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 2.5% (+1.0%)
  • Maori 2.0% (-1.5%)
  • United Future 0.5% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.5% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 2.0% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 67
  • Labour 36
  • Green 10
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 67 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 71/123 – 9 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Progressive 1 + Greens 10 = 47/122 -15 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Country Direction

  • Right 67.5% (-1.5%)
  • Wrong 20.0% (+1.5%)
  • Can’t Say 12.5% (nc)
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Roy Morgan Poll mid February 2009

March 7, 2009

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 938 (3.3% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 2 January to 15 February 2009

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 48.5% (+0.5%)
  • Labour 32.0% (+1.0%)
  • Green 8.5% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 2.5% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 3.5% (nc)
  • United Future 0.5% (-0.5%)
  • Progressive 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 2.5% (+1.05%)

Projected Seats

  • National 60
  • Labour 40
  • Green 11
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 5
  • United Future 1
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 60 + ACT 3 = 63/121 – majority possible
  • Labour 40 + Progressive 1 + Greens 11 + Maori 5 = 57/121 = majority not possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 62 is shown. The Maori Party is the only party assumed to be able to go with National or Labour.

Country Direction

  • Right 63.5% (-1.5%)
  • Wrong 20.5% (+0.5%)
  • Can’t Say 16.0% (+1.0%)
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 35.2% 44
Labour 29.7% 37
Act 9.6% 12
Green 10.8% 14
NZ First 7.4% 9
Maori 3.1% 6
CR 51.2% 65
CL 44.1% 57
Total 97.9% 122
14/10/24
Embed | Methodology

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