Archives: Research International

Fairfax poll on Epsom

November 20, 2011

Stuff reports:

A Fairfax Media-Research Media International mini-poll of 200 eligible Epsom voters showed National’s Paul Goldsmith easily winning the seat on 45.5 per cent.

ACT candidate John Banks trailed on 29.1 per cent, while Labour’s David Parker had 14.6 per cent. The snap poll, taken on Tuesday, showed last Friday’s meeting with National leader John Key shifted support away from Mr Banks.

Almost 30 per cent said they were now less likely to vote for him. Just under 23 per cent said Mr Key’s public endorsement made it more likely they would favour Mr Banks. About 43 per cent said it made no difference. However, the poll also showed almost 40 per cent were undecided over the blue-ribbon seat, suggesting voters were waiting to see if National needed ACT as a support partner.

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Waimakariri poll

November 12, 2011

The Press reports on a poll of 250 voters in Waimakariri:

Electorate Vote

  • Kate Wilkinson 53.9%
  • Clayton Cosgrove 36%
  • Undecided 23.5%

Party Vote

  • National 71.9%
  • Labour 17.4%
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Ohariu Poll

November 12, 2011

The Dom Post reports a poll 163 voters in Ohariu. The electorate vote is:

  • Peter Dunne 37.4%
  • Charles Chauvel 35.6%
  • Katrina Shanks 19%
  • Gareth Hughes 1.4%
  • Undecided 34.6%

 

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Fairfax Research International poll early November 2011

November 9, 2011

Polling Company: Research International

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000

Dates: 03 to 07 November 2011

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 52.5% (-0.1%)
  • Labour 25.9% (-5.4%)
  • Green 12.6% (+2.9%)
  • ACT 1.0% (-0.2%)
  • Maori 1.5% (+0.3%)
  • United Future 0.3% (+0.2%)
  • Mana 0.7% (-0.3%)
  • NZ First 2.8% (+1.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 67
  • Labour 33
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on Maori Party winning three electorate seats, ACT, United Future and Mana one seat each and Labour winning Wigram and Te Tai Tonga.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 67 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 69/122 – 7 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 16 + Mana 1= 50/124 -12 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 52.2% (-0.6%)
  • Phil Goff 13.5% (+4.4%)

 

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Fairfax Research International Poll October 2011

November 2, 2011

Polling Company: Research International

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000

Dates: 27 to 31 October 2011

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 52.6% (-1.7%)
  • Labour 31.3% (+3.2%)
  • Green 9.7% (-0.4%)
  • ACT 1.2% (-0.3%)
  • Maori 1.2% (-0.1%)
  • United Future 0.1% (-0.3%)
  • Mana 1.1% (+0.9%)
  • NZ First 1.5% (-0.8%)

Projected Seats

  • National 66
  • Labour 39
  • Green 12
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 3
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning three electorate seats, ACT, United Future and Mana one seat each and Labour winning Wigram and Te Tai Tonga.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 66 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 68/123 – 6 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 39 + Greens 12 + Mana 1= 52/124 -10 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 52.8% (+1.8%)
  • Phil Goff 9.1% (+2.2%)
  • Winston Peters 3.0% (+0.2%)
Christchurch Earthquake Recover
  • 48% of Canterbury residents say decision making is too slow
  • 55% say they have had ample opportunity to contribute to CBD planning process
  • 60% say speed of demolition and rebuild of CBD has been as fast as expected
Govt handling of economy
  • 50.6% good
  • 30% not so sure
  • 15.7% poor
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Fairfax Research International poll September 2011

September 28, 2011

Polling Company: Research International

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000

Dates: 22 to 26 August 2011

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 54.3% (-2.8%)
  • Labour 28.1% (+2.4%)
  • Green 10.1% (-0.9%)
  • ACT 1.5% (+0.4%)
  • Maori 1.3% (-0.3%)
  • United Future 0.4% (+0.3%)
  • Mana 0.2% (-0.4%)
  • NZ First 2.3% (+0.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 68
  • Labour 35
  • Green 13
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, United Future and Mana one seat each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 68 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 71/124 – 8 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 35 + Greens 13 + Mana 1= 49/124 -14 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 51.0% (-3.6%)
  • Phil Goff 6.9% (-1.6%)
  • Winston Peters 3.0% (+0.2%)
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Fairfax Research International Poll August 2011

September 5, 2011

Polling Company: Research International

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000, of whom xxx had a party preference

Dates: 25 to 29 August 2011

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 57.1% (+1.1%)
  • Labour 25.7% (-3.3%)
  • Green 11.0% (+4.6%)
  • ACT 1.1% (-1.1%)
  • Maori 1.6% (+0.4%)
  • United Future 0.1% (-0.1%)
  • Mana 0.6% (+0.4%)
  • NZ First 2.2% (+0.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 70
  • Labour 32
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, United Future and Mana one seat each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 70 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 72/123 – 10 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 32 + Greens 14 + Mana 1= 47/123 -15 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 54.6% (+1.6%)
  • Phil Goff 8.5% (+2.3%)
  • Winston Peters 2.8% (+0.3%)

Labour Leadership

  • 20% say they are more likely to vote Labour if they change leader
  • 11% say less likely
  • 65% say no difference

Rugby World Cup

  • 68% think NZ will win
  • 11% Australia
  • 7% South Africa
  • 2% England
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Fairfax Research International Poll July 2011

July 31, 2011

Polling Company: Research International

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,008, of whom 860 had a party preference

Dates: 21 to 25 July 2011

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 56.0%
  • Labour 29.0%
  • Green 6.4%
  • ACT 2.2%
  • Maori 1.2%
  • United Future <1%
  • Mana 0.2%
  • NZ First 2.0%

Projected Seats

  • National 71
  • Labour 36
  • Green 8
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, United Future and Mana one seat each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 71 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 75/121 – 12 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 8 + Mana 1= 45/121 -18 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 53%
  • Phil Goff 6.2%
  • Winston Peters 2.5%

Preferred Coalition Partners

  • Greens 25%
  • ACT 18%
  • Maori 11%
  • Labour 8.2%
  • National 5.5%
  • NZ First 2.7%
  • United Future 1.2%
  • Mana 0.2%
Best plan to fix the economy
  • National 49%
  • Labour 17%
  • Green 1.5%
  • ACT 1.8%
  • Maori 0.2%
  • Mana 0.2%
  • NZ First 0.4%
Issues important to voting decisions
  1. Health and education 90%
  2. Economy 84%
  3. Law & Order 83%
  4. Cost of living 83%
  5. Rebuilding Christchurch 75%
  6. Environment 72%
  7. Social Welfare 65%
  8. Superannuation/KiwiSaver 64%
  9. SOEs 60%
  10. Taxes 59%
  11. Immigration 47%
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 35.2% 44
Labour 29.7% 37
Act 9.6% 12
Green 10.8% 14
NZ First 7.4% 9
Maori 3.1% 6
CR 51.2% 65
CL 44.1% 57
Total 97.9% 122
14/10/24
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