TV3 Reid Research Poll October 2009
October 18, 2009
Polling Company: Reid Research
Poll Method: Random Phone
Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, of whom 917 have a party preference, (3.2% maximum margin of error)
Dates: 06 October to 14 October 2009
Client: TV3
Report: TV3
Party Support
- National 59.9% (+1.8%)
- Labour 27.2% (-2.0%)
- Green 6.9% (-0.6%)
- ACT 1.7% (+0.3%)
- Maori 2.4% (+1.2%)
- United Future 0.0% (-0.2%)
- Progressive 0.3% (+0.3%)
- NZ First 1.0% (nc)
Projected Seats
- National 74
- Labour 33
- Green 8
- ACT 2
- Maori 5
- United Future 1
- Progressive 1
- NZ First 0
- Total 124
This is based on Maori Party winning five electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
- CR – National 74 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 77/124 – 14 more than minimum needed to govern
- CL – Labour 33 + Progressive 1 + Greens 8 = 42/124 -21 less than minimum needed to govern
The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.
Preferred PM
- Key 55.8% (+4.3%)
- Clark 8.2% (+0.2%)
- Goff 4.7% 6.5% (-1.8%)
- Peters 3.0%
Leadership Approval
- Key – 82.3% (+3.7%) doing well vs 7.2% (-2.0%) doing poorly – net positive is 75.1% (=5.1%)
- Goff – 34.2% (-0.2%) doing well vs 37.9% (-3.7%) doing poorly – net positive is -3.7% (+3.5%)
Leadership Characteristics – Positive
- capable leader – Key by 40% (+8%)
- good in a crisis – Key by 29% (+5%)
- sound judgement – Key by 28% (+8%)
- honest – Key by 29% (+16%)
- down to earth – Key by 18% (+9%)
- understands economic problems – Key by 30% (+8%)
- has a lot of personality – Key by 46% (+19%)
- in touch with Maori – Key by 6% (+4%)
Leadership Characteristics – Negative
- more style than substance – Key by 8% (-2%)
- talk down to people – Goff by 7% (-4%)
- narrow minded – Goff by 10% (-2%)
- inflexible – Goff by 9% (-2%)
- inexperienced – Key by 19% (-3%)
- out of touch – Goff by 7% (+4%)
Economy
- 54% said impact of recession has been what they expected
- 30% say it was better than expected
- 14% worse than expected
- 2% don’t know
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