Archives: Reid Research

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: approx 18 to 26 March 2014

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

• National 45.9% (+1.4%)
• Labour 31.2% (-2.3%)
• Green 11.2% (-1.2%)
• ACT 1.1% (+1.1%)
• Maori 1.5%  (+0.5%)
• United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
• Mana 1.1% (+0.8%)
• NZ First 4.9% (-0.8%)
• Conservative 1.9% (-0.2%)

Projected Seats

• National 60
• Labour 41
• Green 15
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 60 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 62/122 – the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 41 + Greens 15 + Mana 1 = 57/122 – five fewer than minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/122

On this poll, there would be a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

• Key 42.6% (+3.6%)
• Cunliffe 9.0% (-1.8%)
• Peters
• Norman

David Cunliffe

• were his actions with his secret trust worthy of a PM – No 65%, yes 28%

Leader Ratings

• John Key – 65% (+7%) say performing well, 26% (-3%) poorly = +39% (+10%) net approval
• David Cunliffe – 30% (-9%) say performing well, 46% (+16%) poorly = -10% (+25%) net approval

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.1% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: approx 21 to 28 January 2014

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

• National 44.5% (-3.2%)
• Labour 33.5% (+1.2%)
• Green 12.4% (-1.6%)
• ACT 0.0% (+0.6%)
• Maori 1.0%  (-0.4%)
• United Future 0.0% (-0.2%)
• Mana 0.3% (+1.1%)
• NZ First 5.7% (+0.3%)
• Conservative 2.1% (+1.7%)

Projected Seats

• National 55
• Labour 42
• Green 15
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 7
• Total 125

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 55 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 57/125 – six fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 42 + Greens 15 + Mana 1 = 58/125 – five fewer than minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 7 + Maori 3 = 10/125

On this poll, NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

• Key 39.0% (-1.9%)
• Cunliffe 10.8% (nc)
• Peters 5.8% (-1.7%)
• Norman

NZ First

• 54% say John Key should work with Winston Peters, 36% say he should rule him out
• 61% of National supporters say John Key should work with Winston Peters, 32% say he should rule him out

Internet Party

• 21% said they would consider voting for Kim Dotcom’s Internet Party
• 75% would not

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error) of whom approx 857 have a voting preference

Undecideds: 14.3%

Dates: approx 03 to 07 November 2013

Client: 3 News

Report: 3NewsPoll november 2013

Party Support

• National 46.3% (-3.2%)
• Labour 32.2% (+1.2%)
• Green 10.4% (-1.6%)
• ACT 0.8% (+0.6%)
• Maori 1.2%  (-0.4%)
• United Future 0.1% (-0.2%)
• Mana 1.3% (+1.1%)
• NZ First 4.2% (+0.3%)
• Conservative 2.8% (+1.7%)

Projected Seats

• National 60
• Labour 42
• Green 14
• ACT 0
• Maori 2
• United Future 1
• Mana 2
• NZ First 0
• Total 121

This is based on ACT losing Epsom and the Maori Party losing one seat.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 60 + ACT 0 + United Future 1 = 61/121 – the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 42 + Greens 14 + Mana 2 = 58/121 – three fewer than minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 0 + Maori 2 = 2/122

On this poll, there would be a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

• Key 40.9% (-1.1%)
• Cunliffe 10.8% (-1.3% from Shearer)
• Peters 7.5% (+0.5%)
• Norman 2.2% (+0.5%)

Leader Ratings

• John Key – 58% well (+6%) and 28% poor (-4%) = 30% net positive (+10%)
• David Cunliffe – 42% well (+16% from Shearer) and 25% poor (-19%) = 18% net positive (+35%)

KiwiAssure

• 42% support a state insurer
• 49% oppose it

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error) of whom 831 have a voting preference

Undecideds: 14.2%

Dates: 09 to 17 July 2013

Client: 3 News

Report: 3NewsPoll July 2013

Party Support

• National 49.5% (+2.4%)
• Labour 31.0% (-2.1%)
• Green 12.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.2% (nc)
• Maori 1.6%  (-0.6%)
• United Future 0.2% (-0.2%)
• Mana 0.2% (-0.3%)
• NZ First 3.9% (+1.7%)
• Conservative 1.1% (-0.4%)

Projected Seats

• National 63
• Labour 40
• Green 15
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 63 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 65/124 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 40 + Greens 15 + Mana 1 = 56/124 – seven fewer than minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/123

On this poll, there would be a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

• Key 42.0% (+1.3%)
• Shearer 12.1% (+1.6%)
• Peters 7.0% (+0.9%)
• Norman 1.7% (-1.9%)

Leadership Performance Ratings

• John Key – 52.0% (-3.0%) well and 32.2% (+1.9%) poor = +19% net well (-4.9%)
• David Shearer – 26.1% (-10.1%) well and 43.3% (+7.0%) poor = -17.2% net well (-17.1%)

Kim Dotcom

• 52% believe Kim Dotcom’s claims John Key knew of him before the raids
• 34% believe Key’s denials

David Shearer

• 42% say Shearer should step down as Labour leader
• 45% say Shearer should remain
• 39% of Labour voters say Shearer should step down, 51% say stay

Alternate Labour Leaders

• David Cunliffe 26%
• Grant Robertson 16%
• Andrew Little 9%

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error) of whom 849 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 12.8%

Dates: 17 to 23 May 2013

Client: 3 News

Report: 3NewsPoll may 2013

Party Support

• National 47.1% (-2.3%)
• Labour 33.1% (+2.9%)
• Green 12.0% (+0.5%)
• ACT 0.2% (-0.3%)
• Maori 2.2%  (+1.2%)
• United Future 0.4% (+0.3%)
• Mana 0.5% (-0.5%)
• NZ First 2.2% (-1.6%)
• Conservative 1.5% (-0.1%)

Projected Seats

• National 59
• Labour 41
• Green 15
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/121 – the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 41 + Greens 15 + Mana 1 = 57/121 – four fewer than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

• Key 40.7% (+3.1%)
• Shearer 10.5% (+0.5%)
• Peters 6.1% (+0.8%)
• Norman 3.6% (+0.3%)

Leadership Performance Ratings

• John Key – 55.0% (-0.3%) well and 30.3% (-1.9%) poor = +24.7% net well (+1.6%)
• David Shearer – 36.2% (+3.8%) well and 36.3% (+0.5%) poor = -0.1% net well (+3.3%)

Labour/Green power policy

• Support 54%
• Oppose 39%

Waka Jumping

• 77% support a law to allow parties to expel from Parliament List MPs
• 18% opposed

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: Approx 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Undecideds:

Dates: 13 to 18 April 2013

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

• National 49.4% (-2.0%)
• Labour 30.2% (-2.4%)
• Green 11.5% (+0.7%)
• ACT 0.5% (+0.4%)
• Maori 1.0%  (+0.6%)
• United Future
• Mana 1.0% (+1.0%)
• NZ First 3.8% (+0.4%)
• Conservative 2.0% (+1.1%)

Projected Seats

• National 63
• Labour 39
• Green 15
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 63 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 65/123 – three more than minimum 63 needed to govern
• CL – Labour 39 + Greens 15 + Mana 1 = 55/123 – seven fewer than minimum 63 needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

• Key 37.6% (-3.4%)
• Shearer 10.0% (nc)
• Peters
• Norman

Leadership Performance Ratings

• John Key – 55.3% (-1.5%) well and 32.2% (+6.4%) poor = +23.1% net well (-7.9%)
• David Shearer – 32.4% (-2.5%) well and 35.8% (-3.8%) poor = -3.4% net well (-6.3%)

GCSB

• 50% trusted
• 40% not trusted
• 11% unsure

Kim Dotcom

• 48% should be allowed to stay
• 42% sent to US
• 10% unsure

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: assumed 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: assumed 28 July to 1 August 2012

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

• National 50.6% (+4.8%)
• Labour 30.8% (-2.4%)
• Green 11.2% (-3.2%)
• ACT 0.1% (-0.4%)
• Maori 1.6%  (+0.2%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• Mana 0.2% (-0.1%)
• NZ First 3.0% (+0.2%)
• Conservative 1.7% (+0.6%)

Projected Seats

• National 65
• Labour 39
• Green 14
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 65 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 67/124 – four more than minimum 62 needed to govern
• CL – Labour 39 + Greens 14 + Mana 1 = 54/122 – nine fewer than minimum 62 needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

• Key 43.2% (+2.7%)
• Shearer 8.9% (-3.4%)
• Peters 6.2% (+1.4%)
• Norman 2.0% (-2.0%)

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: assumed 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: assumed 02 to 07 June 2012

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

• National 45.8% (-4.0%)
• Labour 33.2% (+3.8%)
• Green 14.4% (+0.3%)
• ACT 0.5% (+0.3%)
• Maori 1.4%  (-0.2%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• Mana 0.3% (-0.6%)
• NZ First 2.8% (+0.5%)
• Conservative 1.1% (nc)

Projected Seats

• National 57
• Labour 42
• Green 18
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 58/123 – three fewer than minimum 62 needed to govern
• CL – Labour 42 + Greens 18 + Mana 1 = 61/122 -one fewer than minimum 62 needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

• Key 40.5% (-3.7%)
• Shearer 12.3% (+1.9%)
• Peters 4.8%
• Norman 4.0%

Polling Company: Reid Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: assumed 1,000 respondents (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: assumed 14 to 19 April 2012

Client: 3 News

Report: 3 News

Party Support

• National 49.8% (+2.3%)
• Labour 29.4% (nc)
• Green 14.1% (+0.8%)
• ACT 0.2% (nc)
• Maori 1.6%  (+0.3%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• Mana 0.9% (-0.4%)
• NZ First 2.3% (-2.7%)
• Conservative 1.1% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

• National 62
• Labour 37
• Green 18
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 62 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 64/123 – two more than minimum 62 needed to govern
• CL – Labour 37 + Greens 18 + Mana 1 = 56/122 -six less than minimum 62 needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

• Key 44.2% (-1.6%)
• Shearer 10.4% (+0.3%)

Leadership Approval

• Key – 59.9% (-0.6%) doing well vs 24.0% (-2.0%) doing poorly – net rating is +35.9% (-2.6%)
• Shearer  – 32.5% (-2.6%) doing well vs 26.2% (+9.0%) doing poorly – net positive is +6.3% (-11.6%)