Archives: One News

One News Colmar Brunton Poll on Winston Peters

September 15, 2008

The previously reported Colmar Brunton poll had an additional question on Winston Peters.

  • On the issue of how PM Helen Clark has managed Winston Peters over the secret donations scandal, 58% say she has been too soft, 28% about right and 3% too tough.
  • 78% says Peters has not been open and honest on the funding of NZ First and 9% say he has.
  • 68% support National’s stance of ruling Peters out, 24% disagree
  • 63% say Labour should rule Peters out with 26% disagreeing
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Colmar Brunton on Peters as Foreign Minister

September 6, 2008

In August, Colmar Bruton asked whether the allegations about Winston Peters were having an impact on his job as Foreign Minister.

They asked regardless of whether you support New Zealand First, which of the following statements best sums up your opinion on whether this has affected Mr Peters’ ability to carry out his role as Foreign Minister.”

It was asked from 9-14 August 2008

  • It has affected his ability to a high degree – 27%
  • It has had some impact on his ability to do the job – 37%
  • It has made no difference to him doing the job – 32%
  • Don’t Know – 5%
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Colmar Brunton Poll on National Party

August 19, 2008

One News has broadcast results from their poll, relating to trust in National:

  • 50% say National is not being open about its plans
  • 37% say they are being open
  • 25% of National’s own supporters say they are not being open
  • 52% against boosting borrowing for infrastructure, 39% agree
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One News/Colmar Brunton August 2008

August 17, 2008

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,009 total voters and 908 decided voters (3.2% and 3.4% maximum margins of error)

Dates: 9 August to 14 August 2008

Client: One News

Report: TVNZ

Party Support

  • National 51.0% (-1.0%)
  • Labour 37.0% (+2.0%)
  • Green 3.5% (-2.5%)
  • NZ First 2.6% (+0.2%)
  • Maori 3.1% (+1.4%)
  • United Future 0.7% (+0.7%)
  • ACT 0.6% (-0.6%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
Projected Seats
  • National 66
  • Labour 48
  • Green 0
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 6
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 123
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Preferred PM

  • Key 36.0% (-2.0%)
  • Clark 33.0% (+2.0%)
  • Peters 3.0% (-1.0%)


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Tauranga Colmar Brunton One News August 2008 Poll

August 10, 2008

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone of Tauranga voters

Poll Size: 519 voters (4.3% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 6 August to 9 August 2008

Client: One News

Report: None yet

Candidate Support

  • Simon Bridges, National 48%
  • Winston Peters, NZ First 28%
  • Anne Pankhurst, Labour 15%

Party Support

  • National 55%
  • Labour 31%
  • NZ First 6%
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Rounding Errors

July 23, 2008

Dean Knight has a post on how rounding party vote figures to 0 or 1 decimal point can lead to the wrong allocation of seats. He queried the Colmar Brunton seat projections as he (and I) got different putting their results into the Electoral Commission calculator.

They use the raw numbers (with no rounding) in their calculations, so their projections are accurate.

It poses a small issue for me. I always prefer to calculate the seat projections myself using the official calculator, rather than trust what the media report. However as I only get the rounded poll results, then the projections may differ by a seat for some parties.

In future I will use the Colmar Brunton projections, as they have shown to Dean they definitely do it the right way, but will still calculate my own for other polls.

One reason I do my own calculations is I don’t assume the electorate seats will be the same as in 2005, but instead go off any public electorate polls to feed into assumptions on electorate seats won. Hence am projectiing Maori Party wins six seats, not four seats as Marae/Digipoll has shown them ahead in six.

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Rail Purchase

July 21, 2008

The One News/Colmar Brunton Poll reported opinion on the buy back of rail.

68% of respondents supported the purchase with 24% against and 8% not sure. Even 56% of National voters support the buy back.

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One News/Colmar Brunton Poll July 2008

July 21, 2008

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 (3.2% maximum margin of error)

Dates: Not stated but probably up until 18 July 2008

Client: One News

Report: TVNZ

Party Support

  • National 52.0% (-3.0%)
  • Labour 35.0% (+6.0%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 2.4% (-0.8%)
  • Green 6.0% (-1.0%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.4%)
  • Maori 1.7% (-2.7%)
  • ACT 1.2% (+0.4%)
Projected Seats
  • National 65
  • Labour 44
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Green 8
  • United Future 1
  • Maori 6
  • ACT 1
  • Total 126
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Preferred PM

  • Key 38.0% (nc)
  • Clark 31.0% (+3.0%)
  • Peters 4.0% (nc)
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 35.2% 44
Labour 29.7% 37
Act 9.6% 12
Green 10.8% 14
NZ First 7.4% 9
Maori 3.1% 6
CR 51.2% 65
CL 44.1% 57
Total 97.9% 122
14/10/24
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