Archives: NZ Herald

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 11.5%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 664 had a party preference

Dates: 10 to 17 July 2014

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

• National 54.9% (+4.5%)
• Labour 26.5% (-4.0%)
• Green 9.9% (-0.8%)
• NZ First 4.6% (+1.0%)
• Maori 0.5% (-0.3%)
• United Future 0.0% (-0.1%)
• ACT 0.0% (-0.7%)
• Mana/Internet 2.2% (+0.8%)
• Conservative 1.2% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

• National 69
• Labour 34
• Green 13
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• ACT 1
• Mana/Internet 3
• NZ First 0
• Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 69 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 71/124 – eight more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 34 + Greens 13 + Mana/Internet 3 = 49/124 -14 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/124

On this poll, National would form the Government.

Preferred PM

• Key 73.3% (+7.4%)
• Cunliffe 10.5% (-2.2%)
• Peters 5.5% (-0.7%)
• Norman 2.0% (-0.5%)

Fat Tax

• 55% support a fat tax on sugar-high food
• 43% oppose

Healthy Star Ratings

• 82% support introduction

Education

• 61% want money spent on improving teaching standards
• 35% on reducing class sizes

School Donations

• 52% support Labour policy of $100 per student funding if they do not ask for a donation
• 37% say it is unfair

Cunliffe man apology

• 42% say was silly and showed poor judgement
• 45% say unusual way to make point about domestic violence

Auckland Council

• 43% of Aucklanders want staff and salary cuts for Auckland Council
• 20% support rates going up more than 2.5%
• 19% support delaying the City Rail Link
• 9% support reducing services

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 12.2%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 659 had a party preference

Dates: 06 to 15 June 2014

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

• National 50.4% (-0.4%)
• Labour 30.5% (+1.0%)
• Green 10.7% (-2.4%)
• NZ First 3.6% (nc)
• Maori 0.8% (+0.6%)
• United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
• ACT 0.7% (-0.1%)
• Mana/Internet 1.4% (+1.3%)
• Conservative 1.5% (+0.2%)

Projected Seats

• National 64
• Labour 38
• Green 14
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• ACT 1
• Mana/Internet 2
• NZ First 0
• Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 64 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 66/123 – four more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 38 + Greens 14 + Mana/Internet 2 = 54/123 -eight fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/123

On this poll, National would form the Government.

Preferred PM

• Key 65.9% (-0.6%)
• Cunliffe 12.7% (+1.6%)
• Peters 6.2% (-0.3%)
• Norman 2.5% (-2.0%)

Electorate MP threshold

• Keep 50%
• Remove and drop threshold to 4% – 36%

Mana/Internet deal

• Unprincipled rort 43%
• Legitimate use of MMP 33%

Country Direction

• Right 65%

Political Fundraising

• 42% say politicians speaking regularly to donors in private meetings is a bad look
• 30% say nothing wrong
• 21% say it is corrupt

Capital Gains Tax

• 41% favour
• 35% opposed

Cannabis

• 33% decriminalise
• 20% legalise
• 45% remain illegal

Immigration

• Levels about right 50%
• Too high 35%

Coalition Partners

• Preferred coalition partner for Labour is Greens 50% then NZ First 35%

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 11.4%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 665 had a party preference

Dates: 06 to 16 March 2014

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

• National 50.8% (+4.0%)
• Labour 29.5% (-5.9%)
• Green 13.1% (+2.3%)
• NZ First 3.6% (-0.3%)
• Maori 0.2% (-1.1%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.8% (+0.8%)
• Mana 0.1% (-0.8%)
• Conservative 1.3% (+0.6%)

Projected Seats

• National 65
• Labour 37
• Green 17
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• ACT 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 125

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 65 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 67/125 – four more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 37 + Greens 17 + Mana 1 = 55/123 -eight fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/123

On this poll, National would form the Government.

Preferred PM

• Key 66.5% (+4.6%)
• Cunliffe 11.1% (-5.4%)
• Peters 6.5% (-0.8%)
• Norman 4.5% (+1.1%)

Baby Bonus of $60 a week

• Support 47%
• Oppose 49%

Kim Dotcom

• Should be extradited if court rules eligible 47%
• Should not be extradited 42%

NZ Flag

• Support new flag 41%
• Keep current flag 53%

Countdown

• 51% believe Shane Jones allegations
• 20% believe Countdown

Len Brown

• Would vote for Brown in 2016 – 23%
• Would not vote for Brown – 58%
• Brown can still be an effective advocate – 52%
• Brown should have resigned 50% (+12%)
• Brown should not have resigned 38% (-13%)

Income Inequality

• 44% say gap between rich and poor has got a lot bigger
• 30% say a little bigger
• 22% say gap the same
• 3% say gap has closed
• 33% say they are better off under National
• 30% the same
• 30% worse off

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 12.6%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 656 had a party preference

Dates: 09 to 17 December 2013

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

• National 46.8% (+3.1%)
• Labour 35.4% (-2.3%)
• Green 10.8% (-0.5%)
• NZ First 3.9% (-0.5%)
• Maori 1.3% (+0.5%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.0% (-0.1%)
• Mana 0.9% (+0.2%)
• Conservative 0.7% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

• National 59
• Labour 44
• Green 14
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• ACT 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/123 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 44 + Greens 14 + Mana 1 = 59/123 -three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/123

On this poll, the Maori Party would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

• Key 61.9% (+6.1%)
• Cunliffe 16.5% (-0.3%)
• Peters 7.3% (+1.1%)
• Norman 3.4% (-0.3%)

Pike River

• Shareholders should pay compensation 64.4%
• Government should pay compensation 19.8%

GST

• Should be charged on all overseas purchases 40%
• Current exemption level of $400 should remain 53%

Berms

• Mowing berms responsibility of householder 60%
• Mowing berms responsibility of council 34%

Sex Education

• 75% say should teach more than the physical and medical aspects of sex

Fireworks

• 39% want sale of fireworks banned
• 60% happy with current rules

Speed limit

• 67% support reducing tolerance to 4 km/hr
• 29% against

Hauraki Gulf

• Ban commercial fishing in Hauraki Gulf 53%
• Support status quo 29%

Mining

• 58% support oil, gas and mineral exploration
• 38% against

Land sales

• 55% support bill limiting land sales to foreigners

Drink Driving

• 28% support that a BAC between 0.05 and 0.08 should be a criminal offence, with most supporting it being an infringement only.

Conservatives

• 33% think Colin Craig’s views are too extreme
• 24% say he is a welcome addition to political debates
• 43% don’t know

Gender Quotas

• 54% (52% of women) say Labour’s gender quota too restrictive
• 38% (42% of women) say a good idea

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 8.6%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 686 had a party preference

Dates: 17 to 23 September 2013

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

• National 43.7% (-5.1%)
• Labour 37.7% (+6.8%)
• Green 11.3% (+0.8%)
• NZ First 4.4% (-0.7%)
• Maori 0.8% (-1.0%)
• United Future
• ACT
• Mana 0.7% (+0.2%)
• Conservative 1.0% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

• National 56
• Labour 48
• Green 14
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• ACT 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 56 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 58/124 – five fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 48 + Greens 14 + Mana 1 = 63/124 -the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 0 + Maori 3 = 3/124

On this poll, there would be a centre-left Government.

Preferred PM

• Key 55.8% (-9.4%)
• Cunliffe 16.8% +4.4% from Shearer)
• Peters 6.2% (-0.2%)
• Norman 3.7% (+0.1%)

Impact of Cunliffe win on Labour

• More likely to vote Labour 20.4%
• Less likely to vote Labour 14.4%
• No difference 63.0%

Subsidies

• Film production subsidies 64% approve, 32% disapprove
• Tiwai Point subsidy 48% approve, 46% disapprove

Republic

• 29% support
• 60% opposition

Charter schools

• 45% support
• Slightly over half think  public money should be prioritised for public schools

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: 11.9%

Poll Size: 750 respondents, of whom 661 had a party preference

Dates: 12 to 23 June 2013

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

• National 48.8% (+0.3%)
• Labour 30.9% (-5.5%)
• Green 10.5% (+1.5%)
• NZ First 5.1% (+2.6%)
• Maori 1.8% (+0.7%)
• United Future 0.3% (+0.3%)
• ACT 0.2% (+0.1%)
• Mana 0.5% (nc)
• Conservative 1.5% (+0.2%)

Projected Seats

• National 60
• Labour 38
• Green 13
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• ACT 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 6
• Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 60 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 62/123 – the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 38 + Greens 13 + Mana 1 = 52/123 -10 less than minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 6 + Maori 3 = 9/123

Preferred PM

• Key 65.2% (+2.2%)
• Shearer 12.4% (-6.1%)
• Peters 6.4% (+2.4%)
• Norman 3.6%

Labour Leadership successors if Shearer goes

• David Cunliffe 31.8%
• Grant Robertson 16.7%
• Andrew Little 13.5%
• Other 11.0%
• Unsure 27.0%

Inquiry into GCSB

• Agree 52.1%
• Disagree 36.9%
• Don’t Know 11.0%

Peter Dunne

• 22% believe he did not leak GCSB report
• 59% do not believe his denial

Sky City deal

• 34% approve
• 62% disapprove

Fluoride

• 48% support fluoride being added to drinking water
• 25% opposed
• 24% up to local council

Fiordland transport projects

• 46.2% back a tunnel and/or monorail track
• 46.2% oppose

National leadership when Key goes

• Bill English 29.7%
• Steven Joyce 25.4%
• Judith Collin 13.0%

Student Loans

• 57% agree with arresting loan defaulters at the border
• 40% disagree

Sir Douglas Graham

• 55% say he should lose knighthood
• 33% disagree

Working for Families Tax Credits

• 51% support extending to parents on welfare
• 41% opposed

Housing developments

• 43% back Govt having power to override councils’ planning and consent processes
• 51% opposed

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: Unknown

Poll Size: 750 respondents

Dates: 11 to 17 March 2013

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

• National 48.5% (+0.6%)
• Labour 36.3% (+4.4%)
• Green 9.0% (-1.7%)
• NZ First 2.5% (-3.0%)
• Maori 1.1% (-0.4%)
• United Future 0.0% (-0.3%)
• ACT 0.1% (-0.1%)
• Mana 0.5% (+0.2%)
• Conservative 1.3% (-0.1%)

Projected Seats

• National 61
• Labour 46
• Green 11
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• ACT 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 61 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 63/124 – the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 46 + Greens 11 + NZ First 0 + Mana 1 = 58/124 -5 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

• Key 63.0% (-2.6%)
• Shearer 18.5% (+5.6%)
• Peters 4.0%

Country Direction

• Right 49.0% (+0.9%)
• Wrong 43.0% (+0.3%)

• 52% opposed to sale of MRP, 32% in favour
• 30% plan to buy shares in MRP

Term of Parliament

• 51% 3 years
• 48% 4 years

Marriage

• Should remain between a man and a woman 48% (+8%)
• Allow same-sex couples to marry 52% (-4%)

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Undecideds: Unknown

Poll Size: presume 750 respondents

Dates: Unknown, early September

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald

Party Support

• National 47.9% (+0.4%)
• Labour 32.0% (-2.0%)
• Green 10.7% (+1.6%)
• NZ First 5.5% (+1.1%)
• Maori 1.5% (+0.2%)
• United Future 0.3% (-0.2%)
• ACT 0.2% (-0.3%)
• Mana 0.3% (-1.4%)
• Conservative 1.4% (+0.9%)

Projected Seats

• National 59
• Labour 39
• Green 13
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• ACT 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 7
• Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats, except National winning Epsom (on basis of TVNZ poll).

Coalition Options

• CR – National 59 + ACT 0 + United Future 1 = 60/123 – 2 less than minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 39 + Greens 13 + NZ First 7 + Mana 1 = 60/126 -2 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

• Key 65.6% (+2.1%)
• Shearer 12.9% (-1.3%)

Country Direction

• Right 48.1% (-1.6%)
• Wrong 42.7% (-1.4%)