Archives: Newshub

Polling Company: Reid Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone 750 and Internet Panel 250

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates:  17 to 24 May 2018

Client: Newshub

Report: Reid Research

Party Support

  • National 45.1% (+0.6%)
  • Labour 42.6% (+0.3%)
  • Green 5.7% (-0.3%)
  • NZ First 2.4% (-1.4%)
  • Maori 0.9% (+0.1%)
  • ACT 0.2% (nc)
  • Opportunities 1.6% (+0.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 58
  • Labour 55
  • Green 8
  • ACT 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 58 + ACT 1 = 59/122 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 55 + Greens 8 = 63/122 – one more than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0  = 0/122

On this poll there would be a Labour/Green Government

Preferred PM

  • Simon Bridges 9.0% (+8.5%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 40.2% (+2.3%)
  • Winston Peters 4.6% (-1.1%)
  • Judith Collins 3.7% (+3.5%)

Leader Ratings

  • Simon Bridges – +11.9%
  • Jacinda Ardern – +54.8%

Peters as Acting PM

  • do well 39%
  • not do well or unsure 60%

M Bovis

  • 44% support taxpayer funding cost of eradication
  • 44.5% do not support

Polling Company: Reid Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone 750 and Internet Panel 250

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates:  18 to 28 January 2018

Client: Newshub

Report: Newshub

Party Support

  • National 44.5% (-1.3%)
  • Labour 42.3% (+5.0%)
  • Green 6.0% (-1.1%)
  • NZ First 3.8% (-3.3%)
  • Maori 0.8% (+0.4%)
  • ACT 0.2% (-0.4%)
  • Opportunities 1.4% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 57
  • Labour 55
  • Green 8
  • ACT 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 57 + ACT 1 = 58/121 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 55 + Greens 8 = 63/121 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 0  = 0/121

On this poll there would be a Labour/Green Government

Preferred PM

  • Bill English 26.0% (-8.7%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 38.0% (+8.3%)

Leader Ratings

  • Bill English – 53.3% well and 24.2% poor = +28.9%
  • Jacinda Ardern – 70.9% well and 9.3% poor = +61.6%

PM’s pregnancy

  • positively affect her performance 34%
  • negatively 20%
  • No impact 39%

Polling Company: Reid Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone 750 and Internet Panel 250

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates:  13 to 20 September 2017

Client: Newshub

Report: Newshub

Party Support

  • National 45.8% (-1.5%)
  • Labour 37.3% (-0.5%)
  • Green 7.1% (+2.2%)
  • NZ First 7.1% (+1.1%)
  • Maori 0.4% (-0.7%)
  • ACT 0.6% (+0.1%)
  • Opportunities 0.9% (-0.7%)

Projected Seats

  • National 56
  • Labour 45
  • Green 9
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • NZ First 9
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats except Ohariu.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 56 + ACT 1 = 57/122 – six fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 45 + Greens 9 = 54/122 – eight fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 8 + Maori 2 = 10/122

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • Bill English 34.7% (+1.6%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 29.7% (-2.0%)
  • Winston Peters 7.1% (+0.2%)

Polling Company: Reid Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone 750 and Internet Panel 250

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates:  6 to 11 September 2017

Client: Newshub

Report: Newshub

Party Support

  • National 47.3% (+4.0%)
  • Labour 37.8% (-1.6%)
  • Green 4.9% (-1.2%)
  • NZ First 6.0% (-0.6%)
  • Maori 1.1% (+0.1%)
  • ACT 0.5% (-0.1%)
  • Opportunities 1.6% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

  • National 61
  • Labour 49
  • Green 0
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • NZ First 8
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 61 + ACT 1 = 62/121 – one more than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 49 + Greens 0 = 49/121 – 12 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 8 + Maori 2 = 10/121

On this poll National could govern alone.

Preferred PM

  • Bill English 33.1% (+3.0%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 31.7% (+1.8%)
  • Winston Peters 6.9% (nc)

Polling Company: Reid Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone 750 and Internet Panel 250

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates:  approx 22 to 30 August 2017

Client: Newshub

Report: Newshub

Party Support

  • National 43.3% (-1.1%)
  • Labour 39.4% (+6.3%)
  • Green 6.1% (-2.2%)
  • NZ First 6.6% (-2.6%)
  • Maori 1.0% (-0.5%)
  • ACT 0.6% (nc)
  • Mana
  • Opportunities 1.9% (-0.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 53
  • Labour 49
  • Green 8
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • NZ First 8
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 53 + ACT 1 = 54/121 – seven fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 49 + Greens 8 = 57/121 – four fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 8 + Maori 2 = 10/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • Bill English 30.1% (+2.4%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 29.9% (+3.6%)
  • Winston Peters 6.9% (-3.1%)

Polling Company: Reid Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone 750 and Internet Panel 250

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates:  1 to 8 August 2017

Client: Newshub

Report: Newshub

Party Support

  • National 44.4% (-0.8%)
  • Labour 33.1% (+9.0%)
  • Green 8.3% (-4.7%)
  • NZ First 9.2% (-3.8%)
  • Maori 1.5% (+0.3%)
  • United Future 0.1% (-0.1%)
  • ACT 0.6% (+0.1%)
  • Mana 0.3% (+0.3%)
  • Opportunities 2.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 55
  • Labour 41
  • Green 10
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 11
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 55 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 57/121 – four fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 41 + Greens 10 = 51/121 – 10 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 11 + Maori 2 = 13/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • Bill English 27.7% (+1.9%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 26.3% (+17.6%)
  • Winston Peters 10.0% (-1.9%)

 

Leader Approval

  • Bill English – 51.3% (+0.7%) well and 23.2% (-1.0%) poorly for a net +28.1% (+1.7%)
  • Jacinda Ardern – 51.6%(+22.0% from Little)) well and 13.3% (-32.8%) poorly for a net +38.3% (+52.8%)

Polling Company: Reid Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone 750 and Internet Panel 250

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates:  June 2017

Client: Newshub

Report: Newshub

Party Support

  • National 45.2% (-2.2%)
  • Labour 24.1% (-2.3%)
  • Green 13.0% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 13.0% (+3.6%)
  • Maori 1.2% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.2% (-0.1%)
  • ACT 0.5% (-0.4%)
  • Mana 0.0% (nc)
  • Opportunities 2.0% (+1.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 56
  • Labour 30
  • Green 16
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 16
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 56 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 58/121 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 30 + Greens 16 = 46/121 – 15 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 16 + Maori 1 = 17/121

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • Bill English 25.8% (-0.4%)
  • Andrew Little 7.1% (+0.1%)
  • Winston Peters 11.9% (+2.2%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 8.7% (+2.1%)

Leader Approval

  • Bill English – 50.6% (-8.6%) well and 24.2% (+7.5%) poorly for a net +26.4% (-16.1%)
  • Andrew Little – 29.6% (-4.7%) well and 46.1% (+5.4%) poorly for a net -16.5% (-11.1%)

Polling Company: Reid Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone 750 and Internet Panel 250

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates:  June 2017

Client: Newshub

Report: Newshub

Party Support

  • National 47.4% (+0.3%)
  • Labour 26.4% (-4.4%)
  • Green 12.5% (+1.3%)
  • NZ First 9.4% (+1.8%)
  • Maori 0.7% (nc)
  • United Future 0.3% (-0.1%)
  • ACT 0.9% (+0.5%)
  • Mana 0.0% (nc)
  • Conservative 0.8% (+0.4%)
  • Opportunities 0.8% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 58
  • Labour 33
  • Green 15
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 12
  • Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/121 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 33 + Greens 15 = 48/121 – 13 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 12 + Maori 1 = 13/122

On this poll the Maori Party would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • Bill English 26.2% (+1.2%)
  • Andrew Little 7.0% (-1.3%)
  • Winston Peters 9.7% (+0.8%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 6.6% (-3.9%)

Leader Approval

  • Andrew Little -6% (-5.5%)
  • Bill English +25% (-5%)

2017 Budget Family Incomes Package

  • Support 67%
  • Oppose 26%

Polling Company: Reid Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone 750 and Internet Panel 250

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates:  10 to 19 March 2017

Client: Newshub

Report: Newshub

Party Support

  • National 47.1% (+2.0%)
  • Labour 30.8% (-1.9%)
  • Green 11.2% (-0.3%)
  • NZ First 7.6% (-0.5%)
  • Maori 0.7% (-0.6%)
  • United Future 0.4% (+0.3%)
  • ACT 0.4% (+0.2%)
  • Mana 0.0% (-0.4%)
  • Conservative 0.4% (-0.1%)
  • Opportunities 0.8%

Projected Seats

  • National 58
  • Labour 38
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 1
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 9
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/122 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 38 + Greens 14 = 52/122 – ten fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 9 + Maori 1 = 10/122

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • Bill English 25.0% (-11.7% from Key)
  • Andrew Little 8.3% (-2.2%)
  • Winston Peters 8.9% (-2.0%)
  • Jacinda Ardern 10.5%

Labour Leader

  • Andrew Little 46%
  • Jacinda Ardern 38%

Housing

  • Is Government doing enough to control housing market – yes 19%
  • No 19%

Immigration

  • 51% support a cut in immigration
  • 39% do not

Superannuation

  • 52% support increase in entitlement age to 67
  • 42% do not

Polling Company: Reid Research

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates: 22 July to 3 August 2016

Client: Newshub

Report: Newshub

Party Support

  • National 45.1% (-1.9%)
  • Labour 32.7% (+1.4%)
  • Green 11.5% (+0.4%)
  • NZ First 8.1% (+0.3%)
  • Maori 1.3% (+0.3%)
  • United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
  • ACT 0.2% (-0.2%)
  • Mana 0.4% (+0.3%)
  • Conservative 0.5% (-0.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 55
  • Labour 39
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 2
  • United Future 1
  • NZ First 10
  • Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 55 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 57/122 – five fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 39 + Greens 14 = 53/122 – nine fewer than the minimum needed to govern
  • C – NZ First 10 + Maori 2 = 12/122

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 36.7% (nc)
  • Andrew Little 10.5% (+1.6%)
  • Winston Peters 10.9% (-1.2%)

Housing

  • 22% (+2%) think Government is doing enough to control the housing market
  • 75% (-1%)  do not
  • 56% support Labour’s Kiwibuild (100,000 new houses in 10 years) policy
  • 41% do not

Immigration

  • 60% think the Government should let fewer immigrants in
  • 37% do not
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