Archives: Fairfax

Fairfax Research International poll September 2011

September 28, 2011

Polling Company: Research International

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000

Dates: 22 to 26 August 2011

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 54.3% (-2.8%)
  • Labour 28.1% (+2.4%)
  • Green 10.1% (-0.9%)
  • ACT 1.5% (+0.4%)
  • Maori 1.3% (-0.3%)
  • United Future 0.4% (+0.3%)
  • Mana 0.2% (-0.4%)
  • NZ First 2.3% (+0.1%)

Projected Seats

  • National 68
  • Labour 35
  • Green 13
  • ACT 2
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, United Future and Mana one seat each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 68 + ACT 2 + United Future 1 = 71/124 – 8 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 35 + Greens 13 + Mana 1= 49/124 -14 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 51.0% (-3.6%)
  • Phil Goff 6.9% (-1.6%)
  • Winston Peters 3.0% (+0.2%)
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Fairfax Research International Poll August 2011

September 5, 2011

Polling Company: Research International

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000, of whom xxx had a party preference

Dates: 25 to 29 August 2011

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 57.1% (+1.1%)
  • Labour 25.7% (-3.3%)
  • Green 11.0% (+4.6%)
  • ACT 1.1% (-1.1%)
  • Maori 1.6% (+0.4%)
  • United Future 0.1% (-0.1%)
  • Mana 0.6% (+0.4%)
  • NZ First 2.2% (+0.2%)

Projected Seats

  • National 70
  • Labour 32
  • Green 14
  • ACT 1
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, United Future and Mana one seat each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 70 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 72/123 – 10 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 32 + Greens 14 + Mana 1= 47/123 -15 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 54.6% (+1.6%)
  • Phil Goff 8.5% (+2.3%)
  • Winston Peters 2.8% (+0.3%)

Labour Leadership

  • 20% say they are more likely to vote Labour if they change leader
  • 11% say less likely
  • 65% say no difference

Rugby World Cup

  • 68% think NZ will win
  • 11% Australia
  • 7% South Africa
  • 2% England
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Fairfax Research International Poll July 2011

July 31, 2011

Polling Company: Research International

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,008, of whom 860 had a party preference

Dates: 21 to 25 July 2011

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 56.0%
  • Labour 29.0%
  • Green 6.4%
  • ACT 2.2%
  • Maori 1.2%
  • United Future <1%
  • Mana 0.2%
  • NZ First 2.0%

Projected Seats

  • National 71
  • Labour 36
  • Green 8
  • ACT 3
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • Mana 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats, ACT, United Future and Mana one seat each and Labour winning Wigram.

Coalition Options

  • CR – National 71 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 = 75/121 – 12 more than minimum needed to govern
  • CL – Labour 36 + Greens 8 + Mana 1= 45/121 -18 less than minimum needed to govern

The Maori Party is not shown as part of the centre-right or centre-left.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 53%
  • Phil Goff 6.2%
  • Winston Peters 2.5%

Preferred Coalition Partners

  • Greens 25%
  • ACT 18%
  • Maori 11%
  • Labour 8.2%
  • National 5.5%
  • NZ First 2.7%
  • United Future 1.2%
  • Mana 0.2%
Best plan to fix the economy
  • National 49%
  • Labour 17%
  • Green 1.5%
  • ACT 1.8%
  • Maori 0.2%
  • Mana 0.2%
  • NZ First 0.4%
Issues important to voting decisions
  1. Health and education 90%
  2. Economy 84%
  3. Law & Order 83%
  4. Cost of living 83%
  5. Rebuilding Christchurch 75%
  6. Environment 72%
  7. Social Welfare 65%
  8. Superannuation/KiwiSaver 64%
  9. SOEs 60%
  10. Taxes 59%
  11. Immigration 47%
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Fairfax Poll November 2008

November 7, 2008

Polling Company: Nielsen

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: unclear, assumed 1000

Dates: estimated up until 2 Nov 2008

Client: Fairfax Media

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 49.0% (-2.0%)
  • Labour 31.0% (-2.0%)
  • Green 8.0% (+1.0%)
  • NZ First 3.0%  (nc)
  • Maori 3.0% (+1.0%)
  • United Future 1.0% (nc)
  • ACT 4.0% (+3.0%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 61
  • Labour 39
  • Green 10
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 4
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 5
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 121

This is based on Maori Party winning four electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 61 = 61/121 – majority possible
  • Labour 49 + Progressive 1 + Greens 10 + Maori 4 = 54/121 = majority not possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 61 is shown. It is assumed ACT and United Future would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 48.0% (+5.0%)
  • Helen Clark 35.0% (nc)
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Fairfax Poll October 2008

October 18, 2008

Polling Company: Nielsen

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,160 total voters,  (2.9% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 08 to 14 October 2008 (estimated)

Client: Fairfax Media

Report: Stuff

Party Support

  • National 51.0% (-1.0%)
  • Labour 33.0% (-1.0%)
  • Green 7.0% (+2.0%)
  • NZ First 3.0% (nc)
  • Maori 2.0% (-1.0%)
  • United Future 1.0% (+1.0%)
  • ACT 1.0% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)

Projected Seats

  • National 64
  • Labour 42
  • Green 9
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 6
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 124

This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 64 = 64/124 – majority possible
  • Labour 42 + Progressive 1 + Greens 9 + Maori 6 + United Future 1 = 59/124 = majority not possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 63 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.

Preferred PM

  • John Key 43.0% (+2.0%)
  • Helen Clark 35.0% (+5.0%)
  • Winston Peters 1.0% (-1.0%)
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Fairfax Poll September 2008

September 20, 2008

Polling Company: Nielsen

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,130 total voters, 983 decided voters (3.3% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 11 to 17 August September 2008 (estimated)

Client: Fairfax Media

Report: Stuff and Stuff

Party Support

  • National 52.0% (-2.0%)
  • Labour 34.0% (-1.0%)
  • Green 5.0% (+1.0%)
  • NZ First 3.0% (nc)
  • Maori 3.0% (+1.0%)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
Projected Seats
  • National 66
  • Labour 43
  • Green 6
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 6
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 124
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
  • National 66 = 66/124 – majority possible
  • Labour 43 + Progressive 1 + Greens 6 + Maori 6 + United Future 1 = 57/124 = majority possible
The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 63 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.

Preferred PM

  • Key 41.0% (-2.0%)
  • Clark 30.0 (-1.0%)
  • Peters 2.0% (nc)
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Fairfax poll on NZ First

August 18, 2008

The Dominion Post reports further results from the Fairfax/Nielsen poll, on the issue of NZ First:

  • 48 per cent of voters believe Peters should be stood down from his ministerial positions over questions surrounding donations to NZ First, with 37% disagreeing and 15% unsure
  • On whether NZ First should be involved in discussions after the election about the formation of the next government, 37% support a Labour doing a deal with NZ First and 52% against. For a deal with National 26% say yes and 54% say no.
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Fairfax Poll August 2008

August 16, 2008

Polling Company: Nielsen

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,102 total voters, 981 decided voters (3.3% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 6 to 12 August 2008

Client: Fairfax Media

Report: Stuff and Stuff

Party Support

  • National 54.0% (+3.0%)
  • Labour 35.0% (nc)
  • Green 4.0% (-1.0%)
  • NZ First 3.0% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 2.0% (nc)
  • United Future 0.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
Projected Seats
  • National 70
  • Labour 46
  • Green 0
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 6
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 125
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Preferred PM

  • Key 43.0% (+4.0%)
  • Clark 31.0 (-1.0%)
  • Peters 2.0% (-1.0%)
Issues
  • 35% think National can afford significantly bigger tax cuts than Labour, 48% disagree
  • 45% think personal finances get better in next 12 months, 30% worse
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Fairfax July 2008 Poll

July 19, 2008

Polling Company: Nielsen

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,049 total voters, 913 decided voters (3.3% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 9 to 15 July 2008

Client: Fairfax Media

Report: Stuff and Stuff

Party Support

  • National 51.0% (-3.0%)
  • Labour 35.0% (+5.0%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 4.0% (+1.0%)
  • Green 5.0% (-2.0%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 2.0% (nc)
  • ACT 1.0% (nc)
Projected Seats
  • National 65
  • Labour 45
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Green 6
  • United Future 1
  • Maori 6
  • ACT 1
  • Total 125
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Preferred PM

  • Key 39.0% (-4.0%)
  • Clark 32.0 (+2.0%)
  • Peters 3.0% (+1.0%)
Leader Strengths
  • Better in a crisis – Clark 53%, Key 34%
  • Better on world stage – Clark higher
  • Better on law and order – Key 49%, Clark 37%
  • More capabale at managing economy – Key 49%, Clark 38%
  • Strong – Clark 70%, Key 41%
  • Honest – both at 40%
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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 35.2% 44
Labour 29.7% 37
Act 9.6% 12
Green 10.8% 14
NZ First 7.4% 9
Maori 3.1% 6
CR 51.2% 65
CL 44.1% 57
Total 97.9% 122
14/10/24
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