Archives: Fairfax

A Fairfax Nielsen poll finds the following support to replace John Key as Leader and Prime Minister:

• Don’t Know 39%
• Bill English 37%
• Steven Joyce 6%
• Judith Collins 4%
• Paula Bennett 4%
• Amy Adams 3%
• Other 6%

Also in terms of impact on voting National:

• 9% now more likely to vote National
• 16% less likely

And in terms of election timing:

• 61% no early election
• 17% as soon as possible
• 13% within six months

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1001 respondents

Undecideds:

Dates: 02 September to 17 September 2014

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

• National 47.7% (-5.1%)
• Labour 26.1% (+3.7%)
• Green 12.0% (-1.0%)
• NZ First 6.6% (+2.2%)
• Maori 0.9% (-0.1%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.3% (-0.4%)
• Mana 0.9% (-0.5%)
• Conservative 4.5% (+0.9%)

Projected Seats

• National 61
• Labour 34
• Green 15
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 8
• Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 61 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 63/124 – the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 34 + Greens 15 + Mana 2 = 51/124 – 12 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – Maori 3 + NZ First 8 = 11/124

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

Preferred PM

• John Key 53.6% (-3.9%)
• David Cunliffe 20.0% (+2.5%)

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1000 respondents of whom 873 have a party preference

Undecideds:

Dates: 04 September to 11 September 2014

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

• National 52.8% (-1.4%)
• Labour 22.4% (-1.9%)
• Green 13.0% (+0.1%)
• NZ First 4.4% (+0.8%)
• Maori 1.0% (+0.7%)
• United Future 0.0% (-0.1%)
• ACT 0.7% (+0.5%)
• Mana 1.4% (+0.1%)
• Conservative 3.6% (+1.2%)

Projected Seats

• National 70
• Labour 29
• Green 17
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 2
• NZ First 0
• Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 70 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 72/123 – 10 more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 29 + Greens 17 + Mana 2 = 48/123 – 14 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/123

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

Preferred PM

• John Key 57.5% (-0.1%)
• David Cunliffe 17.5% (nc)

Housing Policies

• 49% prefer National’s home start grants
• 38% prefer Labour’s Kiwibuild

Next National Leader

• Bill English 33%
• Steven Joyce 22%
• Paula Bennett 11%
• Simon Bridges 9%

Affordability of Spending Promises

• National +42% (62% affordable, 20% unaffordable)
• Labour -5%
• NZ First -3%
• Greens -26%
• Conservatives -9%
• Internet Mana -32%

Auckland Transport

• City Rail Link 40% most important
• 2nd harbour crossing 32%
• Dominion Road upgrade 15%
• Puhoi to Wellsford 12%

Auckland Growth

• 55% support new suburbs
• 38% build high rises

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1000 respondents of whom 819 have a party preference

Undecideds: 13.0%

Dates: 28 August to 03 September 2014

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

• National 54.2% (+3.4%)
• Labour 24.3% (-1.8%)
• Green 12.9% (+1.1%)
• NZ First 3.6% (-0.4%)
• Maori 0.3% (-0.4%)
• United Future 0.1% (nc)
• ACT 0.2% (-0.5%)
• Mana 1.3% (-0.9%)
• Conservative 2.4% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

• National 70
• Labour 31
• Green 17
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 2
• NZ First 0
• Total 125

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 70 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 72/125 – nine more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 31 + Greens 17 + Mana 2 = 50/125 – 13 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/125

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

Preferred PM

• John Key 57.6% (+2.6%)
• David Cunliffe 15.8% (-2.1%)

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1000 respondents of whom 825 have a party preference

Undecideds: 17.5%

Dates: 21 to 27 August 2014

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

• National 50.8% (-4.3%)
• Labour 26.1% (+3.6%)
• Green 11.8% (+0.5%)
• NZ First 4.0% (+0.6%)
• Maori 0.7% (-0.3%)
• United Future 0.1% (+0.1%)
• ACT 0.7% (+0.5%)
• Mana 2.2% (+0.1%)
• Conservative 2.7% (-0.7%)

Projected Seats

• National 66
• Labour 34
• Green 15
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 3
• NZ First 0
• Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 66 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 68/123 – six more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 34 + Greens 15 + Mana 3 = 52/123 – 10 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/123

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

Preferred PM

• John Key 55.0% (-4.5%)
• David Cunliffe 17.9% (+3.8%)

Dirty Politics

• 30% say all parties do it
• 28% say National worst
• 17% Internet-Mana
• 17% Labour
• 47% say book damages John Key, 43% disagree
• 8% say it has led them to change their vote
• 55% say all politicians play “dirty”

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1007 respondents of whom 854 have a party preference

Undecideds: 15.4%

Dates:Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

• National 55.1% (+0.3%)
• Labour 22.5% (-2.4%)
• Green 11.3% (-1.1%)
• NZ First 3.4% (+0.8%)
• Maori 1.0% (+0.1%)
• United Future 0.0% (-0.2%)
• ACT 0.2% (+0.1%)
• Mana 2.1% (+0.9%)
• Conservative 3.4% (+2.1%)

Projected Seats

• National 72
• Labour 29
• Green 15
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 3
• NZ First 0
• Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats. Coalition Options

• CR – National 72 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 74/124 – 11 more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 29 + Greens 15 + Mana 3 = 47/124 – 16 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/124

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

Preferred PM

• John Key 59.5% (+1.3%)
• David Cunliffe 14.1% (-0.1%)

Country Direction

• Right 65.4% (+1.3%)
• Wrong 33.5% (-0.6%)

Foreign Ownership

• 74% say should be harder for foreign investors to buy large farmland
• 24% disagree
• 53% say too much farmland has been sold
• 41% disagree
• 64% say NZ benefits from more foreign investment
• 31% disagree

Political Donations

• Reveal identity of all donors to political parties 68% agree
• 31% disagree

Government Approval

• 6.0/10 (no change

Time for change of Government

• Yes 40% (-1%)
• No 50% (-1%)

Polling Company: Ipsos Poll Method: Random Phone Poll Size: 1024 respondents of whom 823 have a party preference Undecideds: 15.3% Dates: Client: Fairfax Report: Stuff Party Support

• National 54.8% (-1.7%)
• Labour 24.9% (+1.7%)
• Green 12.4% (+0.5%)
• NZ First 2.6% (-0.6%)
• Maori 0.9% (+0.2%)
• United Future 0.2% (+0.2%)
• ACT 0.1% (-0.6%)
• Mana 1.2% (nc)
• Conservative 1.3% (+0.4%)

Projected Seats

• National 69
• Labour 32
• Green 16
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 2
• NZ First 0
• Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats. Coalition Options

• CR – National 69 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 71/124 – eight more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 32 + Greens 16 + Mana 2 = 50/124 – thirteen fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/124

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed. Preferred PM

• John Key 58.2% (+4.9%)
• David Cunliffe 14.2% (+2.3%)
• Winston Peters
• Russel Norman

Time for a Change of Government

• Yes 41.1% (-2.7%)
• No 51.3% (+3.3%)

Leadership Changes

• Labour would gain 15.2% and lose 1.7% for a net gain of 13.6% if David Cunliffe is not leader
• National would gain 12.4% and lose 5.3% for a net gain of 7.1% if John Key is not leader

NZ First Coalition preferences

• Expect National 32.1%
• Expect Labour 29.2%
• Neither 20.2%
• Don’t Know 18.9%

Transport

• 30% say focus should be public transport
• 24% say roads
• 40% say both
• 57% say Government doing enough to ease traffic jams

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1017 respondents of whom 777 have a party preference

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates: 14 to 17 June 2014

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

• National 56.6% (+8.9%)
• Labour 23.2% (-6.3%)
• Green 11.9% (-0.9%)
• NZ First 3.2% (-0.5%)
• Maori 0.7% (-1.2%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.7% (-0.2%)
• Mana 1.2% (+0.7%)
• Conservative 0.9% (-0.7%)

Projected Seats

• National 72
• Labour 30
• Green 15
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 2
• NZ First 0
• Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 72 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 74/123 – twelve more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 30 + Greens 15 + Mana 2 = 47/123 – fifteen fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/122

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

Preferred PM

• John Key 53.3% (+4.7%)
• David Cunliffe 11.9% (-1.5%)
• Winston Peters 2.5% (-0.9%)
• Russel Norman 2.8% (+0.8%)

Country Direction

• Right 63.1% (-0.5%)
• Wrong 35.4% (-0.2%)

Time for a Change of Government

• Yes 43.8% (-2.5%)
• No 48.0% (-0.1%)

Government Performance Out of 10

• 0 – 2: 9.4% (+0.4%)
• 3 – 7: 66.0% (-1.0%)
• 8 – 10: 24.0% (nc)

Most Important Issues

• Education 22%
• Economy 21%
• Health 19%
• Unemployment 14%
• Housing Affordability 12%
• Immigration 4%

MMP Electorate seat threshold

• 82% against “coat tailing”
• 14% in favour

Expectation of tax cuts

• 30% expect tax cuts
• 61% do not

John Key

• 22% say they would vote National if John Key stood down
• 36% say they might depending on who replaced him
• 39% would not

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,011

Undecideds: Unknown

Dates: 10 May to 12 May 2014

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

• National 47.6% (-1.8%)
• Labour 29.5% (-2.3%)
• Green 12.7% (+2.7%)
• NZ First 3.7% (+0.1%)
• Maori 1.9% (+0.8%)
• United Future 0.1% (nc)
• ACT 0.9% (+0.4%)
• Mana 0.5% (+0.2%)
• Conservative 1.6% (-0.5%)

Projected Seats

• National 62
• Labour 38
• Green 16
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 62 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 64/122 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 38 + Greens 16 + Mana 1 = 55/122 – seven fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/122

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

Preferred PM

• John Key 48.6% (-1.0%)
• David Cunliffe 13.4% (-3.9%)
• Winston Peters 3.4% (+0.6%)

Country Direction

• Right 63.6% (-0.1%)
• Wrong 35.7% (+0.1%)

Time for a Change of Government

• Yes 46.3% (-1.0%)
• No 48.1% (+0.1%)

Keep interest rates low

• National 40%
• Labour 26%

Spending

• Should increase spending in Budget 21%
• Decrease spending 21%
• Maintain current levels 51%

Most important issues

• Freeze on energy and fuel prices 74% personally/69% for country
• Tax cuts for workers 70%/69%
• Increase minimum wage 55%/72%
• Help first time buyers 54%/76%
• Reduce childcare costs 44% personally/66% for country
• Increase paid parental leave 32%/45%
• Introduce capital gains tax 28%/44%
• Increase pension age 26%/46%

Government performance

• Keeping unemployment down – 52%
• Balancing tax and expenditure – 57%
• Managing economy 69%
• Improve standard of living 41%
• Improve standard of living for poor people 31%
• Improve standard of living for rich people 75%

Polling Company: Ipsos

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,018 of whom 845 have a party preference

Undecideds: 17%

Dates: 10 February to 12 February 2014

Client: Fairfax

Report: Stuff

Party Support

• National 49.4% (-0.8%)
• Labour 31.8% (-1.8%)
• Green 10.0% (-0.7%)
• NZ First 3.6% (+1.3%)
• Maori 1.1% (+0.4%)
• United Future 0.1% (nc)
• ACT 0.5% (+0.4%)
• Mana0.3% (-0.4%)
• Conservative 2.1% (+1.4%)

Projected Seats

• National 64
• Labour 41
• Green 13
• ACT 1
• Maori 3
• United Future 1
• Mana 1
• NZ First 0
• Total 124

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 64 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 66/124 – three more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 41 + Greens 13 + Mana 1 = 55/124 – eight fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – Maori 3 + NZ First 0 = 3/124

On this poll a centre-right government would be formed.

Country Direction

• Right 63.7% (+4.2%)
• Wrong 35.6% (-4.9%)

Government Rating

• 5.8/10 (+0.2)

Time for a change

• Yes 47.3% (-2.8%)
• No 48.0% (+4.9%)

Baby Bonus

• Support 48.5%
• Oppose 48.1%

Raise Taxes

• Support 25.2%
• Oppose 69.4%