Archives: Digipoll

Te Tai Tokerau Marae Digipoll October 2008

October 12, 2008

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone of Te Tai Tokerau voters

Poll Size: 400 voters (4.9% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 15 September to 7 October 2008

Client: Marae

Report: TVNZ

Party Support

  • Labour 34.5%
  • Maori Party 46.8%
  • NZ First 5.6%
  • National 6.4%
  • Green 2.5%

Candidate Support

  • Kelvin Davis, Labour 25.8%
  • Hone Harawira, Maori Party 69.0%
  • Greens 3.4%
Preferred PM
  • Helen Clark 41.4%
  • Winston Peters 9.9%
  • Pita Sharples 5.5%
  • John Key 4.7%
  • Tariana Turia 5.7%
Country Direction
  • Right 49.3%
  • No 36.8%
  • Don’t Know 13.8%
Hone Harawira Performance
  • Very Satisfied 28.0%
  • Satisfied 50.1%
  • Not Satisfied 14.3%
  • Don’t Know 7.6%
Most effective Maori MP
  • Pita Sharples 15.2%
  • Hone Harawira 31.2%
  • Tariana Turia 7.4%
  • Winston Peters 6.3%
  • Shane Jones 5.6%
  • Parekura Horomia 1.8%
  • Dover Samuels 1.4%
  • Nanaia Mahuta 1.2%
  • Te Ururoa Flavell 1.2%
Most important issue
  • Maori/Treaty 19.3%
  • Education 13.5%
  • Law & Order 5.9%
  • Health 11.2%
  • Family Issues 6.8%
Coalitions
  • Maori Party coalition with Labour – 70.9% support, 17.3% do not
  • Maori Party coalition with National – 25.4% support, 60.3% do not
Identity
  • New Zealander First 10.5%
  • Maori first 76.3%
  • Both 12.4%
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Tamaki Makaurau Marae Digipoll October 2008

October 12, 2008

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone of Tamaki Makaurau voters

Poll Size: 400 voters (4.9% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 15 September to 7 October 2008

Client: Marae

Report: TVNZ

Party Support

  • Labour 37.5%
  • Maori Party 41.2%
  • NZ First 7.3%
  • National 5.9%
  • Green 4.0%

Candidate Support

  • Louisa Wall, Labour 13.5%
  • Pita Sharples, Maori Party 77.4%
  • Mikaere Curtis, Greens 6.5%
Preferred PM
  • Helen Clark 39.0%
  • Winston Peters 10.2%
  • Pita Sharples 7.2%
  • John Key 6.7%
  • Tariana Turia 5.9%
Country Direction
  • Right 46.5%
  • No 39.7%
  • Don’t Know 13.8%
Pita Sharples Performance
  • Very Satisfied 26.2%
  • Satisfied 54.1%
  • Not Satisfied 9.4%
  • Don’t Know 10.4%
Most effective Maori MP
  • Pita Sharples 32.8%
  • Hone Harawira 12.1%
  • Tariana Turia 9.0%
  • Winston Peters 7.0%
  • Parekura Horomia 4.6%
  • Shane Jones 2.8%
  • Tau Henare 1.6%
  • Dover Samuels 1.5%
  • Nanaia Mahuta 1.2%
  • Te Ururoa Flavell 1.0%
  • Georgina te Heuheu 1.0%
Most important issue
  • Education 16.8%
  • Law & Order 15.1%
  • Maori/Treaty 11.7%
  • Health 9.5%
  • Family Issues 8.0%
Coalitions
  • Maori Party coalition with Labour – 71.3% support, 20.6% do not
  • Maori Party coalition with National – 27.7% support, 63.8% do not
Identity
  • New Zealander First 15.4%
  • Maori first 72.2%
  • Both 11.8%
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Herald DigiPoll on MMP

September 27, 2008

The Herald DigiPoll asked 700 respondents about MMP:

  • 35% prefer MMP
  • 39% prefer FPP
  • 10% prefer another system
  • 16% do not know or won’t say
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NZ Herald DigiPoll September 2008

September 26, 2008

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 700 respondents, (3.8% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 15 September to 24 September 2008

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald main story and breakdowns here and graphs here.

Party Support

  • National 51.4% (+1.4%)
  • Labour 35.7% (-0.6%)
  • Green 4.9% (-0.2%)
  • NZ First 2.8% (+0.7%)
  • Maori 2.8% (-0.3%)
  • United Future 0.4% (+0.4%)
  • ACT 1.1% (-1.2%)
  • Progressive 0.4% (+0.4%)
Projected Seats
  • National 68
  • Labour 47
  • Green 0
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 6
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 1
  • Total 124
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
  • National 68/124 – majority possible
  • Labour 47 + Progressive 1 + Maori 6 + United Future 1 = 55/124 = no majority possible
The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 63 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.

Preferred PM

  • Key 45.5% (-1.1%)
  • Clark 43.1% (-1.9%)
  • Peters 4.0% (-1.6%)

Most influential issue

  • Economy 28.0% (+3.3%)
  • Law & Order 17.8% (+0.8%)
  • Tax Cuts 16.5% (+0.2%)
  • Hospital Waiting Lists 10.3% (-3.5%)


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NZ Herald DigiPoll August 2008

September 6, 2008

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 750 respondents, (3.6% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 3 August to 25 August 2008

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald main story and breakdowns here and graphs here.

Party Support

  • National 50.0% (-5.4%)
  • Labour 36.3% (+5.5%)
  • Green 5.1% (-0.4%)
  • NZ First 2.1% (-2.0%)
  • Maori 3.1% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.9%)
  • ACT 2.3% (+2.1%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
Projected Seats
  • National 62
  • Labour 45
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Green 6
  • United Future 1
  • Maori 6
  • ACT 1
  • Total 124
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
  • National 62 + ACT 3 = 65/124 – majority possible
  • Labour 45 + Progressive 1 + Greens 6 + Maori 6 + United Future 1 = 59/124 = no majority possible
The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 63 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive in order of ease are Greens, NZ First, Maori Party and United Future.

Preferred PM

  • Key 46.6% (-0.5%)
  • Clark 45.0% (+1.0%)
  • Peters 5.6% (+0.7%)

Most influential issue

  • Economy 24.7% (+1.8%)
  • Law & Order 17.0% (-0.2%)
  • Tax Cuts 16.3% (-0.2%)
  • Hospital Waiting Lists 13.8% (nc)
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Te Tai Tonga Marae Digipoll August 2008

August 10, 2008

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone of Te Tai Tonga voters

Poll Size: 380 voters (5.1% maximum margin of error)

Dates: Unknown but possibly 22 July to 4 August 2008

Client: Marae

Report: None yet

Candidate Support

  • Mahara Okeroa, Labour 39.4%
  • Rahui Katene, Maori Party 42.4%
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Marae-Digipoll Hauraki-Waikato August 2008 Poll

August 8, 2008

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone of Ikaroa-Rawhiti voters

Poll Size: 400 voters (4.9% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 7 July to 21 July 2008

Client: Marae

Report: None yet

Party Support

  • Maori Party 44.9%
  • Labour 33.4%
  • National 12.0%

Candidate Support

  • Nanaia Mahuta, Labour 45.3%
  • Angeline Greensill, Maori Party 41.4%

Most Liked MP

  • Pita Sharples, Labour Maori Party 25.5%
  • Nanaia Mahuta, Labour 13.4%
  • Winston Peters, NZ First, 10.6%
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NZ Herald DigiPoll July 2008

July 29, 2008

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 770 respondents, 660 decided respondents (3.6% and 3.9% maximum margins of error)

Dates: Not stated but normally over three weeks, and probably up until 26 July 2008

Client: NZ Herald

Report: NZ Herald main story and breakdowns here and graphs here.

Party Support

  • National 55.4% (+0.5%)
  • Labour 30.8% (-1.6%)
  • Progressive – 0.0% (nc)
  • NZ First 4.1% (+0.8%)
  • Green 5.5% (-0.4%)
  • United Future 0.9% (+0.8%)
  • Maori – 2.6% (+0.8%)
  • ACT – 0.2% (-0.6%)
14.3% of respondents were undecided
Projected Seats
  • National 70
  • Labour 39
  • Progressive 1
  • NZ First 0
  • Green 7
  • United Future 1
  • Maori 6
  • ACT 1
  • Total 125
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Preferred PM

  • Key 47.1% (+1.1%)
  • Clark 44.0% (-1.0%)
  • Peters 4.9%

Most influential issue

  • Economy 22.9%
  • Law & Order 17.2%
  • Tax Cuts 16.5%
  • Hospital Waiting Lists 13.8%
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Marae Ikaroa-Rawhiti Poll July 2008

July 21, 2008

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone of Ikaroa-Rawhiti voters

Poll Size: 400 voters (4.9% maximum margin of error)

Dates: Around two and a half weeks to 14 July 2008

Client: Marae

Report: None yet

Candidate Support

The poll was reported in two parts. Up until 8 July 2008 Derek Fox (Maori Party) had 50.5% to 41.9% for Parekura Horomia (Labour).
On 8 July stories of domestic violence in the past of Derek Fox were published. Responses after that date were 47.1% for Fox and 45.6% for Horomia.
Note that if half the sample were done before and after 8 July, the margin of error for each part is 7.1%.
The last Marae-Digipoll in 2007 in Ikaroa-Rawhiti had the Maori Party candidate (not selected at that stage) at 54% and the Labour Party candidate (Horomia) at 31%, so the race has tightened since then regardless of the domestic violence revelations.
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Ikaroa-Rawhiti Poll next Sunday on Marae

July 13, 2008

There will be much interest is the poll done in Ikaroa-Rawhiti by Marae and presumably DigiPoll. Presumably it was done during or after the Derek Fox allegations. The results will be on Marae on TV One on 20 July.

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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 35.2% 44
Labour 29.7% 37
Act 9.6% 12
Green 10.8% 14
NZ First 7.4% 9
Maori 3.1% 6
CR 51.2% 65
CL 44.1% 57
Total 97.9% 122
14/10/24
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