Archives: Colmar Brunton

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,011 voters of whom 841 have a party preference

Undecideds: 13%

Dates: 2 to 6 April 2016

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

• National 50.0% (+3%)
• Labour 28.0% (-4%)
• Green 10.0% (+2.0%)
• NZ First 9.0% (-1%)
• Maori 1.1% (nc)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.7% (+0.4%)
• Mana 0.0% (-0.3%)
• Conservative 0.3% (-0.3%)

Projected Seats

• National 61
• Labour 34
• Green 11
• ACT 1
• Maori 1
• United Future 1
• NZ First 11
• Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 61 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 63/121 – two more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 34 + Greens 11 = 45/121 – 16 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 11 + Maori 1 = 12/121

On this poll National could govern alone.

Preferred PM

• John Key 39.0% (-1)
• Andrew Little 7.0% (-2%)
• Winston Peters 10.0% (+1%)
• Jacinda Ardern 2.0% (nc)

Economic Outlook

• Better 43% (+5%)
• Worse 33% (-6%)
• Same 24% (+1%)

Sugar Tax

• 66% support a tax on soda drinks with sugar
• 29% oppose

Universal Basic Income (UBI)

• Support 32%
• Oppose 49%

Medical Marijuana (cannabis)

• Support 73%
• Oppose 21%

Immigration Levels

• More migrants 18%
• Fewer migrants 27%
• About right level 51%

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,004 of whom 855 had a party preference

Undecideds: 11%

Dates: 13 to 17 February 2016

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

• National 47.0% (nc)
• Labour 32.0% (+1%)
• Green 8.0% (-4.0%)
• NZ First 10.0% (+1%)
• Maori 1.0% (+0.2%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.3% (+0.1%)
• Mana 0.3% (+0.3%)
• Conservative 0.6% (+0.2%)

Projected Seats

• National 58
• Labour 39
• Green 10
• ACT 1
• Maori 1
• United Future 1
• NZ First 12
• Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 58 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 60/122 – two fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 39 + Greens 10 = 49/122 – 13 fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 12 + Maori 1 = 13/122

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

• John Key 40.0% (nc)
• Andrew Little 9.0% (+1%)
• Winston Peters 9.0% (+1%)
• Jacinda Ardern 2.0% (-1%)

NZ Flag

• Current Flag 63%
• Alternative Flag 26%

Police Pursuits

• Police should be able to pursue any vehicle that fails to stop 68%
• NZ law should be changed 26%

TPP

• May impact our sovereignty and I’m concerned 44%
• May impact our sovereignty and not a big concern 22%
• Not much impact of sovereignty 24%

A Colmar Brunton poll for Q+A found:

Most concerning issues in order:

1. Wages
2. Housing affordability
3. Unemployment
4. Foreign property ownership
5. Immigration
6. Climate change

Poverty

• Government should be doing more about poverty 66%
• Government is doing about right amount 27%
• Government should be doing less 1%

Social Housing

• Government should be doing more for social housing 55%
• Government is doing about right amount 36%
• Government should be doing less 3%

Republic

• NZ should become a republic 19%
• Stay with monarchy 73%

Australian deportations

• NZ should deport non citizens who serve more than a year in prison 74%
• Disagree 18%

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,002 of whom 832 have a party preference

Undecideds: 12%

Dates: 10 to 14 October 2015

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

• National 47.0% (nc)
• Labour 31.0% (-1%)
• Green 12.0% (nc)
• NZ First 9.0% (+2%)
• Maori 0.8% (-0.4%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.2% (+0.1%)
• Mana 0.0% (-0.2%)
• Conservative 0.4% (+0.3%)

Projected Seats

• National 57
• Labour 38
• Green 14
• ACT 1
• Maori 1
• United Future 1
• NZ First 10
• Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/122 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 38 + Greens 14 = 52/122 – ten fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 10 + Maori 1 = 11/122

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

• John Key 40.0% (nc)
• Andrew Little 8.0% (-2%)
• Winston Peters 8.0% (+2%)
• Jacinda Ardern 3.0% (nc)

Economic Outlook

• Better 42% (+9%)
• Worse 33% (-12%)
• Same 25% (+3%)

Smoke free areas

• 53% support extending smoke free areas to outside areas of bars and restaurants
• 45% disagree

Contraception

• 70% say government should encourage contraception for mothers who have had multiple children placed into CYF care
• 24% disagree

Benefits in Australia

• 67% say NZ should restrict benefit eligibility for Australians, as Australia does for NZers

Australian Deportations

• 58% say NZ should deport Australians who have served prison sentences of 12 months or more

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,002 of whom 849 have a party preference

Undecideds: 11%

Dates: 29 August to 02 September 2015

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

• National 47.0% (nc)
• Labour 32.0% (nc)
• Green 12.0% (-1.0%)
• NZ First 7.0% (nc)
• Maori 1.2% (+0.8%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.1% (-0.3%)
• Mana 0.2% (-0.3%)
• Conservative 0.1% (+0.1%)

Projected Seats

• National 57
• Labour 39
• Green 14
• ACT 1
• Maori 1
• United Future 1
• NZ First 9
• Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/122 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 39 + Greens 14 = 53/122 – nine fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 9 + Maori 1 = 10/122

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

• John Key 40.0% (nc)
• Andrew Little 10.0% (+2.0%)
• Winston Peters 6.0% (-1.0%)
• Jacinda Ardern 3.0% (+1.0%)

Economic Outlook

• Better 33% (-3%)
• Worse 45% (+4%)
• Same 22% (-2%)

NZ Flag

• Change flag 28% (+2%)
• Keep flag 66% (+2%)
• Unsure 6% (-3%)

Foreign Investment in Sensitive Land

• Continue current approval process 37%
• Ban all foreign investment in sensitive land 54%

Private Prisons

• Should should be privately run 21%
• All should be run by Corrections 69%

TPP

• Should sign 24%
• Not sign 44%
• Don’t know 32%

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Subsciber to NZ Political Polling Code: Yes

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 of whom 856 have a party preference

Undecideds: 12%

Dates: 11 to 15 July 2015

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

• National 47.0% (-1.0%)
• Labour 32.0% (+1.0%)
• Green 13.0% (+3.0%)
• NZ First 7.0% (nc)
• Maori 0.4% (-1.1%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• ACT 0.4% (+0.3%)
• Mana 0.5% (+0.5%)
• Conservative 0.0% (-2.3%)

Projected Seats

• National 57
• Labour 39
• Green 16
• ACT 1
• Maori 1
• United Future 1
• NZ First 8
• Total 123

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 57 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 59/123 – three fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 39 + Greens 16 = 55/123 – seven fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• C – NZ First 8 + Maori 1 = 9/123

On this poll NZ First would hold the balance of power.

Preferred PM

• John Key 40.0% (-4.0%)
• Andrew Little 8.0% (-1.0%)
• Winston Peters 7.0% (-2.0%)

Economic Outlook

• Better 36% (-9%)
• Worse 41% (+10%)
• Same 24% (nc)

Genetic Modification

• 44% support law change to allow NZ businesses to use some form of GM organisms
• 49% oppose

Refugees

• 53% support increasing quote from 750 to 1,000
• 44% opposed

Organ donation compensation

• 67% say organ donors should get compensation similar to ACC
• 22% say organ donors should get the sickness benefit

Euthanasia

• 75% support a terminally ill person being able to have a medical practitioner assist them to end their lives
• 21% opposed

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,003 respondents, of whom 833 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 13%

Dates:  23 May to 27 May 2015

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

• National 48.0% (-1%)
• Labour 31.0% (nc)
• Green 10.0% (+1.0%)
• ACT 0.1% (-0.4%)
• Maori 1.4% (+0.6%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• Mana 0.0% (-1.1%)
• NZ First 7.0% (nc)
• Conservative 2.3% (+0.8%)

Projected Seats

• National 59
• Labour 38
• Green 12
• ACT 1
• Maori 2
• United Future 1
• NZ First 9
• Total 122

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 59 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 61/122 – one fewer than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 38 + Greens 12 = 50/122 – 12 fewer than minimum needed to govern
• C – Maori 2 + NZ First 9 = 12/122

On this poll National could form a centre-right Government with either the Maori Party or NZ First. Labour could not form a Government.

Preferred PM

• John Key 44% (+2%)
• Andrew Little 9% (-2%)
• Winston Peters 9% (-1%)

2015 Budget

• 4% say made them better off
• 10% say worse off
• 72% no change

Property Tax Rules

• 14% say Govt’s changes to tax investment homes wold within two years go too far
• 28% say not far enough
• 50% say are about right

One News reports:

A special ONE News Colmar Brunton Poll shows most people believe the main reason the Government is sending troops to Iraq to support the fight against ISIS is to remain in a good relationship with our allies, the United States and Britain.

• 49% of those surveyed said the main reason New Zealand troops are heading to Iraq to help train Iraqi security forces is to maintain good relationships with the US and UK.

• 30% believed the troops are going there because it is the right thing to do.

• 9% said it is for some other reason.

• 11% don’t know.

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,000 respondents, of whom 859 had a voting preference

Undecideds: 9%

Dates: 11 April to 15 April 2015

Client: One News

Report: Colmar Brunton

Party Support

• National 49.0% (nc)
• Labour 31.0% (nc)
• Green 9% (-1.0%)
• ACT 0.5% (+0.2%)
• Maori 0.8% (-0.8%)
• United Future 0.0% (nc)
• Mana 1.1% (+0.7%)
• NZ First 7.0% (+1.0%)
• Conservative 1.5% (nc)

Projected Seats

• National 60
• Labour 38
• Green 11
• ACT 1
• Maori 1
• United Future 1
• NZ First 9
• Total 121

This is based on no change in electorate seats.

Coalition Options

• CR – National 60 + ACT 1 + United Future 1 = 62/121 – one more than the minimum needed to govern
• CL – Labour 38 + Greens 11 = 49/121 – 12 fewer than minimum needed to govern
• C – Maori 1 + NZ First 9 = 10/121

On this poll National could form a centre-right Government.

Preferred PM

• John Key 42% (+1.0%)
• Andrew Little 11% (-1%)
• Winston Peters 10% (+3.0%)

Economic Direction

• Better 48% (-5%)
• Worse 28% (+4%)
• Same 24% (+1%)

Cannabis

• Remain illegal in all cases 25% (+4% from 2013)
• Illegal but an be prescribed for pain relief by doctors 36% (-11%)
• Should be decriminalised 32% (+11%)
• Should be legalised 7% (-2%)

Zero hour contracts

• Should be illegal 77%
• Not illegal 19%

David Bain

• Should be paid compensation 69%
• No compensation 19%

Poll results are at Colmar Brunton.

• Winston Peters 53%, Mark Osbrone 36%, WIllow-Jean Prime 9%
• 69% of Labour supporters voting Peters and 15% of National supporters
• 71% say National has made spending pledges only because they are worried Peters may win, 19% disagree
• Only 4% say National’s spending pledges made it more likely they will vote National and 20% less likely
• Party Vote – National 49%, Labour 20%, NZF 20%, Greens 8%