Archives: Uncategorized

Te Tai Tokerau Marae Digipoll October 2008

October 12, 2008

Polling Company: DigiPoll

Poll Method: Random Phone of Te Tai Tokerau voters

Poll Size: 400 voters (4.9% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 15 September to 7 October 2008

Client: Marae

Report: TVNZ

Party Support

  • Labour 34.5%
  • Maori Party 46.8%
  • NZ First 5.6%
  • National 6.4%
  • Green 2.5%

Candidate Support

  • Kelvin Davis, Labour 25.8%
  • Hone Harawira, Maori Party 69.0%
  • Greens 3.4%
Preferred PM
  • Helen Clark 41.4%
  • Winston Peters 9.9%
  • Pita Sharples 5.5%
  • John Key 4.7%
  • Tariana Turia 5.7%
Country Direction
  • Right 49.3%
  • No 36.8%
  • Don’t Know 13.8%
Hone Harawira Performance
  • Very Satisfied 28.0%
  • Satisfied 50.1%
  • Not Satisfied 14.3%
  • Don’t Know 7.6%
Most effective Maori MP
  • Pita Sharples 15.2%
  • Hone Harawira 31.2%
  • Tariana Turia 7.4%
  • Winston Peters 6.3%
  • Shane Jones 5.6%
  • Parekura Horomia 1.8%
  • Dover Samuels 1.4%
  • Nanaia Mahuta 1.2%
  • Te Ururoa Flavell 1.2%
Most important issue
  • Maori/Treaty 19.3%
  • Education 13.5%
  • Law & Order 5.9%
  • Health 11.2%
  • Family Issues 6.8%
Coalitions
  • Maori Party coalition with Labour – 70.9% support, 17.3% do not
  • Maori Party coalition with National – 25.4% support, 60.3% do not
Identity
  • New Zealander First 10.5%
  • Maori first 76.3%
  • Both 12.4%
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Roy Morgan

October 11, 2008

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 923 (3.3% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 22 September to 05 Friday 2008

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 40.5% (-7.0%)
  • Labour 37.5% (+1.0%)
  • Green 9.0% (+2.5%)
  • NZ First 4.0% (-1.0%)
  • Maori 2.0% (+0.5%)
  • United Future 1.0% (+0.5%)
  • ACT 3.5% (+2.0%)
  • Progressive 1.0% (+1.0%)
  • Other 1.5% (+0.5%)

Projected Seats

  • National 52
  • Labour 48
  • Green 11
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 6
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 4
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 123

This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.

Coalition Options

  • National 52 + ACT 4 + United Future 1 + Maori 6 = 63/123 – majority possible
  • National 57 + ACT4 + Maori 6 = 62/123 – majority possible
  • Labour 48 + Progressive 1 + Greens 11 + Maori 6 = 66/123 = majority possible

The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 63 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive and NZ First only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive and NZ First in order of ease are Greens, Maori Party and United Future.

Country Direction

  • Right 48.0% (+4.0%)
  • Wrong 39.5% (-1.5%)
  • Can’t Say 12.5% (-2.5%)
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2008 US Presidential Election

September 26, 2008

A UMR poll from 11 to 14 September found:

  • 65% of NZers back Barack Obama
  • 11% back John McCain
  • Obama gets 69% support from Labour voters, 63% from National voters, 74% from white collar workers and 58% from blue collar workers
  • 55% of NZers approved of McCain’s choice of Sarah Palin, with 25% disapproving
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Cellphone skews in the US

September 26, 2008

JafaPete blogs on US Research from Pew on whether or not respondents who have a cellphone and not a landline differ from those with landlines.

The answer in the US if yes they do, but the overall impact on findings is still relatively modest.

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One News/Colmar Brunton September 2008

September 14, 2008

Polling Company: Colmar Brunton

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 1,007 total voters and 854 decided voters (3.2% and 3.4% maximum margins of error)

Dates: 6 September to 11 September 2008

Client: One News

Report: TVNZ

Party Support

  • National 53.0% (+2.0%)
  • Labour 35.0% (-2.0%)
  • Green 5.0% (+1.5%)
  • NZ First 1.8% (-0.8%)
  • Maori 1.8% (-1.3%)
  • United Future 0.0% (-0.7%)
  • ACT 2.0% (+1.4%)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
Projected Seats
  • National 66
  • Labour 43
  • Green 6
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 6
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 3
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 123
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
  • National 66/124 – majority possible
  • Labour 43 + Progressive 1 + Greens 6 + Maori 6 + United Future 1 = 57/124 = majority not possible
The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 63 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive in order of ease are Greens, NZ First, Maori Party and United Future.

Preferred PM

  • Key 40.0% (+4.0%)
  • Clark 31.0% (-2.0%)
  • Peters 3.0% (nc)

Economic Outlook

  • Better 50% (+6%)
  • Same 23% (+5%)
  • Worse 27% (-11%)
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Roy Morgan Poll late August 2008

September 6, 2008

Polling Company: Roy Morgan Research

Poll Method: Random Phone

Poll Size: 841 (3.5% maximum margin of error)

Dates: 18 August to 31 August 2008

Client: Self Published

Report: Roy Morgan Website

Party Support

  • National 44.5% (-3.5%)
  • Labour 38.0% (+4.0%)
  • Green 8.0% (+0.5%)
  • NZ First 2.5% (-4.0%)
  • Maori 3.5% (+1.5%)
  • United Future 1.0% (+1.0%)
  • ACT 1.5% (nc)
  • Progressive 0.0% (nc)
  • Other 1.0% (+0.5%)
Breakdowns are also given for Auckland, Wellington, Christchurch, Other NI and Other SI.
Projected Seats
  • National 56
  • Labour 47
  • Green 10
  • NZ First 0
  • Maori 6
  • United Future 1
  • ACT 2
  • Progressive 1
  • Total 123
This is based on Maori Party winning six electorate seats and ACT, United Future and Progressive one each.
Coalition Options
  • National 56 + ACT 3 + United Future 1 + Maori 6 = 66/123 – majority possible
  • National 56 +Maori 6 = 62/123 – majority possible
  • Labour 47 + Progressive 1 + Greens 10 + Maori 6 = 64/124 = majority possible
The easiest option for both National and Labour to get a majority of at least 63 is shown. It is assumed ACT would only go with National and Progressive only go with Labour. For National next options after ACT, in order of ease, are United Future, Maori Party, and Greens. For Labour next options after Progressive in order of ease are Greens, NZ First, Maori Party and United Future.
Country Direction
  • Right 50.5% (+6.0%)
  • Wrong 35.5% (-5.5%)
  • Can’t Say 14.0% (-0.5%)
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Welcome

April 6, 2008

Welcome to curiablog, if you have managed to find it despite me not yet promoting it.

This blog will be a specialist blog on polls and polling, with a mainly New Zealand focus.

I hope it will provide the following information:

  1. A record of all public polls published within New Zealand, and links to the original data or at least media reports based on that data.
  2. A guide to useful information on polls and polling including FAQS on issues such as exit polls, why polls disagree etc etc. I will generally link the best overseas content where appropriate.
  3. Links to significant overseas polls.
  4. Links to and commentary on blog posts on polling from some of the international specialist blog sites.

Over time, it may develop into a useful discussion forum for staff, directors and customers of New Zealand polling companies.

It is not intended to be a partisan debating forum, despite the fact I am politically active. There are many other blogs for that.

I hope this blog will develop into a useful addition to the blogosphere.

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« Later posts

Curia's blog specialises in polls and polling, with a mainly New Zealand focus. More

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Public Poll Average

  Vote Seats
National 35.2% 44
Labour 29.7% 37
Act 9.6% 12
Green 10.8% 14
NZ First 7.4% 9
Maori 3.1% 6
CR 51.2% 65
CL 44.1% 57
Total 97.9% 122
14/10/24
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